There's always a bullish chart somewhere even in a secular bear market
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The uranium sector has taken quite a beating in 2008. But now, I think it is attempting a resurrection from the ashes.
I checked in on my uranium index, and it does look promising. And yes, this past year was brutal for uranium, despite a certain advocate that I know of who was pounding the table for uranium as a buy for all of 2008.
Another sector to watch for the next few months: Agriculture
Terra Nitrogen Company, LP (NYSE:TNH) has a juicy 10% dividend yield, and Monsanto Company (NYSE:MON) raised guidance for the coming quarter. What's not to like about the Agricultural sector?
A rising tide lifts all boats. 20d EMA is above the 50d EMA, and both are turning up. This is where I will be playing - probably in about a week or so.
Thursday, January 08, 2009
Sector Snapshots
Friday, May 09, 2008
Uranium: Back From the Nuclear Winter?
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The chart of my uranium index still looks like it is locked in a downtrend, however, a look at some of the individual components provides a more interesting picture:
Many uranium stocks are trying to break their downtrends, with Cameco leading the way. This was one of the reasons that I bought Strathmore Minerals Corp (CVE:STM) (see picture in my previous post). However, since I do not have confidence on the probability of success of this trade, it was only a small position. On the other hand, these stocks have been so beaten up, that the downside risk is really not that bad. Definitely something that bears watching next week.
Tuesday, January 08, 2008
Uranium Chart Review
Time to take another closer look at the market that no one knows about.....
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A lot of uranium stocks are popping up today, so it is prudent to find the more interesting plays. I actually put together the charts on the weekend, but they are all still valid, imagine that.
As mentioned yesterday, I keep track of my own custom Uranium Index, and a break above 18000 in my Uranium index would confirm a double bottom and also that the buyers are taking control.
Strateco Resources Inc. (TSE:RSC) - 
Strathmore Minerals Corp. (CVE:STM) - bought some @2.26 yesterday near the close
UEX Corporation (TSE:UEX) - bought some this morning @7.36
Uranium One, Inc. (TSE:UUU)
Paladin Energy Ltd. (TSE:PDN)
Friday, July 27, 2007
Stick a Fork In It
The Uranium market is toast for at least the next 4 months, maybe even longer.
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Regardless of all the cheerleading news about how uranium stocks are the next best thing since sliced bread, the chart says it all, and the chart does not lie. My uranium index is in a downtrend, and has been in a downtrend ever since that fateful day in April2007. I do not plan on touching any uranium stock, not even with a 10foot pole.
Gold is acting weak, and the Loonie is in a correction. This just means no one is interested in buying uranium stocks for the next little while. Stick a fork in her, she's done.
Thursday, June 28, 2007
Uranium Fakeout
Ok, so maybe Uranium is not back yet.....
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The recovery process may take a little bit longer.
I think I would have to see my Uranium Index clear 26000 before I think a recovery is underway.
I checked in on most of the components of the index, and most of them are under the 50d MA, which means a lot of technical damage has been done, which will require some time to repair.
Which means it's not the time to buy yet......
Friday, June 22, 2007
Uranium is Back
Looks like it might be time to get back into Uranium.
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While gold, silver and copper seems to have lost their direction, the chart on my Uranium index speaks the truth - buyers are starting to buy again. If you look at the above chart, my Uranium index has broken above that bump at the beginning of June. I believe that sets the bullish case for breaking back above 26000.
I will be looking for the ones in my uranium index that look the healthiest. Hopefully I can report back on that sometime this weekend.
Saturday, May 19, 2007
Uranium Index, Week 18
No update last week due to various personal reasons.
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This current downtrend is rather strong, because uranium stocks have gone down despite two increases to the uranium spot prices.
Note that the Uranium Futures have also drifted downwards for the past two weeks, although they seem to have stabilized in the past few days.
The overall market still remains in an increasingly overbought state, so there may still be more downside risk in store for the uranium index. The uranium index needs to re-claim the 27000 in order to break the current downtrend. A more likely scenario is range-bound, sideways movement for the next month or two to repair the damage caused by this latest correction.
Index Value: 25,753.46
Best Performers: EMC
Worst Performers: SXR
Uptrends intact: CCO, UEX, EMC, UMN, U
Index Performance:
Week 18: n/a
Since inception: +28.76%
Sunday, May 06, 2007
Uranium Futures
The Trading session for Uranium Futures has begun, but.....
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Trading in Uranium Futures has IPO'd, so to speak.
The symbol is UXM7 (base symbol is UX, the contract is for June07 settlement).
As of 1014pm, the latest bid/ask is 1@13200.00/5@14475.00.
However, note that not 1 contract has traded yet.
This obviously bears more monitoring. I'm not sure what to make of this until I see some actual trades take place.
Saturday, May 05, 2007
Uranium Index, Week 16
uh-oh.
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Looks like the Uranium Party is in trouble. My Uranium Index is now in a short term downtrend. The Uranium Futures will start trading in a couple of days, so that will go a long way in telling me whether the index can break out of the downtrend or not.
The one encouraging sign that I see is the V-bottom that was put in this week. I did not trade any of the components in my Uranium Index this week, but I did observe some heavy volume in the latter part of the week. Heavy volume is good - especially on the upside of the V-bottom.
However, the V-bottom did not break out of the downtrend, so my index is not out of the woods yet. I would like to see it climb back comfortably above 27500 before I would declare a resumption of the uptrend. The other scenario here is that my index could just go sideways for a little while, bouncing around between 25000 and 27000. We'll just have to see what the market wants to do.
Once the Uranium Futures start trading, we will see more volatility in the uranium prices which will inevitably spill over into the uranium stocks, strap on to your seat belts.
Index Value: 26,488.13
Best Performers: CCO, AXU
Worst Performers: PWE, U
Index Performance:Week 16: +0.65%
Since inception: +33.30%
Sunday, April 29, 2007
Uranium Index: Week15
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Test of support @26100 will occur this week.
Index Value: 26,488.13
Best Performers: LAM, UMN
Worst Performers: EFR, CXX
Index Performance:Week 4: -4.11%
Since inception: +32.44%
Saturday, April 21, 2007
Uranium Index, Week 14
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After a week of regulatory delays, the merger between UrAsia Energy and SXR Uranium finally completed on Friday after market close. I completed my index update last week, so although it was a week early, I actually don't mind, since UUU had a higher weight in the index last week.
My uranium index extended its slide downwards from last week, although it looks like it may have put in the bottom on Friday. But technically, we won't know whether Friday was the bottom or not until we see a test of the 26100 level. As indicated in the above chart, there isn't a specific level of support, but more of an area of support. We'll have to see how this coming week unfolds.
One other thing that I've noticed is that my uranium index is loosely following the short term trend of the TSX Composite index. Market sentiment for the TSX index is unclear right now, although I will say that we are much closer to a short term top than we are to a short term bottom. Regardless, I still think that the uranium index will at least make the roundtrip back up to the ATH's at around 28500. What happens after that is anyone's guess.
One last interesting news item is that UxC announced that it signed an agreement with NYMEX to offer a uranium futures product. This uranium futures contract will start trading in the first week of May 2007. This is certainly an interesting turn of events. No more will we have to wait for the release of uranium prices from UxC each Monday. And we will now get to see just how much hedge fund interest there is in the uranium market. Very interesting times indeed.
Saturday, April 14, 2007
Uranium Index, Week 13
Summary
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This week, the index started off the week by jumping up to new ATH's on news that the U3O8 spot price jumped up to $113/lb, but then proceeded to give back most of that initial one-day gain during the remainder of the week. Trend is still up, although next week there might be a continuation of this pullback, we'll just have to see how the market sentiment is at that time.
Other than that, there's nothing much else to report.
With the merger of SXR Uranium One and UrAsia all set to complete early next week, now is as good a time as any to update my Uranium index as follows:
1. Sell all of Urasia Energy (UUU.v)
2. Use 25% of the proceeds to buy Energy Fuels (EFR)
3. Use 25% of the proceeds to buy BaysWater Uranium (BAY)
4. Use 25% of the proceeds to buy PowerTech Uranium (PWE)
5. Use 25% of the proceeds to buy TriEx Minerals (TXM)
My uranium index now consists of the following component companies (listed in order of index weight):
1. Forsys Metals (FSY)
2. Laramide Resources (LAM)
3. UraMin Inc. (UMN)
4. Strathmore Minerals (STM)
5. Energy Metals (EMC)
6. UEX Corp. (UEX)
7. Uranium Participation (U)
8. Denison Mines Corp. (DML)
9. Strateco Resources (RSC)
10. Mega Uranium (MGA)
11. SXR Uranium One (SXR)
12. Ur-Energy (URE)
13. Khan Resources (KRI)
14. Paladin Resources (PDN)
15. JNR Resources (JNN)
16. Aurora Energy Resources (AXU)
17. Western Prospector Group (WNP)
18. Cameco Corp. (CCO)
19. Crosshair Exploration & Mining (CXX)
20. Energy Fuels (EFR)
21. BaysWater Uranium (BAY)
22. PowerTech Uranium (PWE)
23. TriEx Minerals (TXM)
Index Value: 27,624.88
Best Performers: MGA, KRI
Worst Performers: CXX, WNP
Index Performance:Week 4: +1.72%
Since inception: +36.60%
Monday, April 09, 2007
Mega Uranium
I daytraded Mega Uranium, and left a lot of profits on the table, but that's ok with me.
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I sold MGA near the ATH's because it had showed signs of stalling. My laptop started slowing down after I had sold, and by the time I rebooted, and had everything up and running, MGA had run past 7.60.
What makes today's price action interesting is the buy volume that suddenly showed up right after lunch. It's as if all the mutual fund managers went for lunch, then came back and all decided to press the panic buy button at the same time.
Mega Uranium (TSX: MGA) has the potential to run-up much like how FSY and LAM did in recent weeks. I will be looking out for this tomorrow. As always, Volume is the key.
Friday, April 06, 2007
Uranium Index, Week 12
All systems go
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As you can tell, my uranium index closed at new ATH's to close out this shortened week. The best time to buy was when I mentioned about 2 weeks ago that it was time to buy. That was a low risk entry point, and a run to at least the ATH's was a gimme. At that point, if it could not break above the ATH's, then you could sell and pocket the profits, or let ride if it can break above the ATH's (as it is doing now). I will watch out for more situations like this in the future.
This week's run-up has not been as impressive as in the past. The best week ever for this index was Week5 (around mid Feb), when it gained +10% for the week. I miss those days of easy money. This week was one of those where you had to hold overnight in order to capture most of the gains. However, I shouldn't complain because the index managed to put in a nice performance despite a shortened week.
Anyways, trend is still up, even though U3O8 spot price stayed the same, at $95/lb.
I'm starting to hear talk of a uranium bubble. I'm not sure what these guys are smoking. How do you build up a bear case against uranium? Price is unsustainable, price will crash once more uranium production comes online, companies don't actually sell at spot price, blah, blah, blah, ad nauseum...... I go strictly by the chart, and the index is not showing any signs of a uranium bubble, that is the bottom line for me. Worked for me in the past, it's working for me now, and I will follow it until it is no longer working for me. Actually, when these uranium bears capitulate and finally go bullish, then that is the sign of a top !!
The merger between Urasia Energy and SXR Uranium One has been approved. The transaction will close either the end of next week, or sometime in the following week. After much contemplation, I have decided that I will replace UUU with the following four junior uranium miners (on the day the merger transaction is completed):
1. Energy Fuels (EFR)
2. BaysWater Uranium (BAY)
3. TriEx Minerals (TXM)
4. U3O8 Corp (UWE)
The funds from UUU will be equally distributed to each of the above 4 stocks. UUU currently represents 5.83% of the overall index, so each of the above stocks will each receive a weight of about 1.46% of the overall index. Incidentally, the index is now influenced more by FSY, UMN, and LAM - these 3 companies collectively contribute to almost 20% of the index's performance. So these 3 companies are the ones to watch if you want to get a general, approximate idea of where my index is headed.
Index Value: 27,624.88
Best Performers: KRI, SXR
Worst Performers: STM, JNN
Index Performance:Week 12: +6.96%
Since Inception: +38.10%
Wednesday, April 04, 2007
Khan Resources Inc.
I swing traded Khan Resources Inc. (TSX: KRI).
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1. Why did I take this trade?
Because Khan Resources (KRI) is a uranium stock, and it showed some heavy breakout volume yesterday morning.
2. What was the initial stop?
I placed the initial stop at 4.09, for a risk of 4 cents.
This morning, I moved my stop up to $4.26, then to $4.40 on the remaining half of my position too soon.
3. Why did you exit where you did?
Volume was less than yesterday, and it was stalling out at 4.70, even though there was heavy volume.
4. Is there anything you would do differently?
I should have doubled my position size. High probability, morale boosting plays like this don't come along very often in this sort of a market environment that we're in.
Saturday, March 31, 2007
Uranium Index, Week 11
There might be a pause next week, but trend is still up.
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The All Time Highs (ATH) for my uranium index is 26,529.74. ATH's typically act as a resistance level, and if I had to guess as to the reason why, it might be because there's also the potential for a double topping pattern to occur. So, there might be a bit of a pause as my uranium index approaches the ATH's. But eventually it will power on through, though I do not know when that will happen, or whether there might be another dip before that happens. You could buy now (higher risk, higher reward), or wait until it breaks above resistance before buying (lower risk, lower reward). My personal opinion is that lower risk is better than higher reward, but that's just me.
By the way, the 24100 level will now act as a support level for the index.
The merger completion date (April 13/07) between UrAsia (UUU) and SXR Uranium One (SXR) is fast approaching. My new list of candidates (to replace UUU) is as follows:
BaysWater Uranium (BAY.v)
Energy Fuels (EFR.to)
U3O8 Corp. (UWE.v)
Index Value: 25,826.16
Best Performers: LAM, MGA
Worst Performers: FSY, WNP
Index Performance:Week 11: +4.16%
Since Inception: +29.10%
Thursday, March 29, 2007
Last Minute Buying in Uranium Stocks
There were a lot of last minute buying in many of the components of the uranium index that I was watching.
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Not sure why the buyers decide to buy these stocks at the last minute, but I did find it curious that it happened to more than a couple of the ones that I was watching. Perhaps it was the same buyer ?
I didn't buy Paladin Resources (PDN), even though there was a surge of buyers showing up in the last 5minutes.
Bought Mega Uranium (MGA) @6.42, stop@6.30
Bought JNR Resources (JNN) @4.02, stop @3.90
Bought BaysWater Uranium (BAY) @2.02, stop @1.94
Also bought UraMin (UMN) @6.05 (stop @6), but it did not show any last minute buying
Wednesday, March 28, 2007
Chart Review of Select Uranium stocks
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UraMin: Printed two low volume, inside days, uptrend intact, buy on break above today's HoD:
Paladin: chart looks good, uptrend intact. Hard to find a good entry point, although there is some weak support @8.96.
BaysWater Uranium: 10d EMA crossing above the 20d EMA, looks like it could break out. Buy on a break above 2.0, or any pullback that stays above the gap between 1.70 and 1.78.
Tuesday, March 27, 2007
IPO: Uranium Focused Energy Fund
Forgot to keep track of this one, and now it's trading already.
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The Uranium ETF, which is sponsored by Middlefield Capital, debuted on March 16, 2007, at around 9.86 per share. The ticker symbol is TSX: UF.UN. Today it closed at $10 even per share. Glad I didn't sign up for the IPO shares However, since it pays a 5% yield, I am wondering if I should pick up some for my retirement account..... hmmm....
DayTrading Mega Uranium
I Day traded mega uranium (TSX: MGA) near the end of the day.
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6.25 was the resistance level on the daily chart for Mega Uranium (MGA). I had an alert level set @6.25, but I happened to be stalking it at the time, so I was able to see this breakout develop.
Once MGA crossed the $6.20 level, the price action started to come alive. I saw 65K shares on the ask @6.24. The bid started @6.20, then went up to 6.21, then 6.22. When the ask @6.24 went down to 45K shares, I decided to put in a limit bid @6.23. I lucked out and got filled (I was prepared to buy @market), and soon afterwards, I saw that the ask went down to 20K shares. Once all 65K was consumed, away we went. I watched the tape closely for any signs of stalling. No sign of momentum waning until I saw 50K shares on the ask @6.40. Immediately I sent my limit sell @6.39 and got filled within seconds. Again, if there was any delay, I was prepared to sell @market.
Fastest and smoothest $0.16 I've made in weeks.
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