Summary
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Added to my Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE: GS) position on the breakout above 140 as per plan. However, the sellers showed up later, and the broad based weakness led to Goldman Sachs selling off. I exited my full position at breakeven (140). Will probably need a couple days to determine whether there is any buy support at 136.6.
Started a 1/4 position in Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK.B) as per plan.
long 75.6, stop 73, target 80+
IBM (International Business Machines Corp., NYSE: IBM) has been acting the strongest during this OpEx selloff, along with MacDonald's. I will look to buy both names on weakness.
Another name has caught my eye, and that is American Capital Agency Corp. (NASDAQ: AGNC). This is a mortgage REIT that buys MBS's and CDO's and makes money on the interest rate spread. They pay a 21% dividend. They recently completed a secondary stock offering, which was priced at $25.75. I will monitor this stock to see if it can stay above 25.1 next Friday.
Tuesday, May 18, 2010
Trade Update, May 18, 2010
Monday, May 17, 2010
sold visa
Summary
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sold Visa Inc. (NYSE: V) at 78.9.
Thought about waiting for a last gasp exhaustion break above 79, but was too busy watching Baidu, so I bailed 78.9 good enough...
Friday, May 14, 2010
bought visa again
Summary
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bought back visa at 76.5
stop 75.65
target 81-82
hold over the weekend unless i get stopped out
exited longs
out Visa (NYSE: V) at 77, will wait for better entry on Visa to swing long
Still holding BIDU, raising sell stop to 72.5
Update:
Exited BIDU 73.35.
Currently no positions.
Was hoping for some buying strength into the close, I don't think that's going to happen.
Wait for next week to see if buyers show up.
Get Ready to Buy - Update part II
bought BIDU, and V
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In my previous post, I discussed a list of stocks that I planned to buy on a correction. One stock in my previous post has triggered, and I bought another which I did not previously discuss.
Long Visa (NYSE:V) 76.67
stop 74.5
target 81-82
Long Baidu (NASDAQ:BIDU) 72.83
stop 70
target 79
Monday, February 25, 2008
Swing Trade : Agrium Inc. (NYSE:AGU)
Summary
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I've previously talked about the Agricultural Chemical stocks as one of the sectors in a sweet sector-wide uptrend. I've previously traded Potash Corp (NYSE:POT) as a way to take advantage of the sector trend. Well, POT broke out to new ATH's recently, and I was left on the outside looking in. Not wanting to miss the bandwagon, I took a long position this morning in Agrium Inc. (NYSE:AGU).
There were four reasons that I went long:
1. great looking daily chart of a stock in a sector uptrend
2. AGU gapped up and saw follow through buying on Friday.
3. Today's opening drop only partially retraced Friday's follow through buying.
4. Tape looked bullish near the end of today's morning pullback.
Initial stop is at 68.9, I anticipate new ATH's
This was an instance where buying the morning pullback was the right play to make.
UPDATE: moving my stop up to breakeven @71.5
Saturday, January 26, 2008
Trade Update on Ultra QQQ ProShares (AMEX:QLD)
Summary
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As mentioned previously, I bought Ultra QQQ ProShares (ETF) (AMEX:QLD) back on Wednesday @68.
On Friday, I sold it when it broke below 73 the second time in the afternoon session. I could have, and should have sold it when it was trading at 78 in the morning, but I didn't pull the trigger.
The main problem was that I did not have an exit strategy. I think I've got a handle on picking the right time to get into the trade, but I don't put as much time and focus into figuring when to exit the trade.
Wait the for the pop from the FOMC meeting? Fade the gap? Move stop to breakeven and let the profits fall where they may? Look for a break of trend? All of the above thoughts were floating in my head and as a result I was unable to make a decision.
Obviously for the next trade, I will have to work out an exit strategy.
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
From the Black Depths of the Abyss
Summary
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As mentioned in the previous post, I went long Ultra QQQ ProShares (AMEX:QLD) @68 today at around 1130am (PST).
Why did I go long in a counter trend and in the midst of a vicious bear market? Because my analysis said that we were due for a bounce. I didn't know when the bounce would occur, and yesterday's attempted rally did not impress. But today was a different story.
I've never seen a 70pt rally in ES before. 25pts, 30pts, sure, but not 70 freakin' points. Reading about it makes me wish I was around to witness it in real-time. Right around 10am (PST), the rally started as an innocent looking countertrend pullback. But then the pullback started to take on a life of its own, and broke above some resistance levels. 
Near the last hour of trading, the heinous hounds of program trading were released to unleash their egregiously rabid fury upon the unsuspecting sellers. No shorts were spared the beatdown. Markets seldom move in such uniform fashion, but when they do, it is a powerful and beautiful thing to watch.
So, where will the markets go from here? Don't really know, but I will be watching the following support/resistance levels:
Current stop has been moved to just under 70, although I might take profits near the 7am reversal time, we'll just have to see what the markets gives us tomorrow.
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
Trade Update and Market Notes
Summary
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Got stopped out of my LNN swing trade. Entered @70.4, stopped out @71.
Agribiz stocks (POT,MON,MOS,TNH,TRA, et.al) are all starting to rollover. I am leaning towards not touching them until they have found some definite support level, although TNH's 5.9% div.yield is looking interesting.
Gold stocks gapped down and closed near their lows today, so that sector has sustained a bit of technical damage and will need a week or two of basing to recover.
All the solar stocks looked like someone pushed them off a cliff.
Oil stocks are also taking a beating.
In short, almost every sector that I was looking at before for possible trade ideas are pretty much not worth looking at for the next few days.
SPY still has not closed below Aug/07 lows, so I am open to idea of a bigger bounce occurring when everyone least expects it.
One new sector that I am starting to take an interest in:
Medical Equipment & Supplies:
Also on my watchlist: VMW, FCN, RIMM, OPTT, CPHD, PANL.
Monday, January 14, 2008
Trade Updates
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I got stopped out of SEED today @9.7 for a profit of just over 3.5%.
I was actually watching SEED during the last hour of trading, and as it dropped and dropped, I became more and more undecided and unsure of what to do - sell it before it took out my stop, or keep my stop in place and let the trade play itself out?
I had a stop level in place, and even a profit target objective for seed all planned out ahead of time, but unfortunately, my plan did not account a for a 20% drop in this microcap stock.
Now I look back at all that money I left on the table (over $2/share, yikes!) and wonder what I could have done differently. As a result of this SEED trade, I'm going to have to make a new rule, which is that if current price is more than a certain percentage below the current HoD after gapping up to open, then exit position, no questions asked. In SEED's case, the percentage threshold is 8%. The 8% sounds a bit arbitrary and will vary from stock to stock., but what my intention here is to attempt to quantify the price level at which there is too much technical damage done to the stock, and that the (intraday) sentiment has changed.
Anyways, on a more brighter note, yesterday I provided some trade numbers for some potential swing trades. Today, over half of them triggered, and I decided to play LNN. I got the idea for the LNN from Ugly. The reason I chose to trade LNN instead of the others is because it seemed to me to be the best behaved of the bunch that I highlighted.
My stop was originally at 66, but I have decided to move it up to 69.5. My exit plan is as follows:
1. Exit if current price is over 5% below the current HoD after gapping up to open.
2. Price stays below the manually drawn uptrendline for more than 30min.
Current watchlist: VIP, SDTH, MGPI, PEIX, PVX, RBCN
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