Tuesday, April 29, 2008

Update on Visa Inc. (NYSE:V)

do you have any newer info?

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I made a purchase of Visa Inc (NYSE: V) about a month ago, and since I am still holding it, I guess it's time to do an update and see where we are.

The above chart of Visa Inc. (NYSE: V) pretty much speaks for itself, and I don't have too much to say about it other than the fact that it looks pretty nice. Buyers are accumulating this stock. The stock is behaving exactly as I described. The 10d EMA average is trending up. The earnings beat delivered by MasterCard Incorporated (NYSE: MA) was equally as good for V. In fact, going forward, any analysis I do on Visa will automatically consider the state of the chart for MA as well.
Leadership was previously provided by GOOG, RIMM, and AAPL. Well, now add these two credit card giants to that privileged leadership list.

Tomorrow will be too early to buy some more NYSE:V. The above chart indicates that Apr. 17-18 was the best time to buy (stock bounced back up to alleviate oversold conditions, and broke above short term resistance). Support levels are at $72.6, and possibly at $75 as well.
I have a hunch that the fund managers are waiting for the next pullback below $75 or any test of the 10d EMA to make their next purchase, so that is where I will be making my next purchase as well. If I do make another purchase of NYSE:V, I will post the trade in (almost) real-time on jaiku.

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Sunday, April 06, 2008

Twitter vs. GOOG


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I was checking in on my Twitter account just now, and thought it might be time again to start regularly Tweeting again. Then I remembered that I blogged about how Jaiku was better than Twitter (well, I actually blogged about how WallStreak was better than Jaiku, but in that post I kind of implied that Jaiku was better than Twitter), so I thought I would check in on my Jaiku account.
Lo and behold, I find out that Jaiku was acquired by the Mighty G! This occurred back in mid-Oct/07, right around the time I started my 9 to 5 cube farm job.
So, with this acquisition, Twitter is up against the MightyG. Good Luck, if there ever was a David vs. Goliath story in the post-modern era, this is it.

That said, I think I will use Jaiku instead of Twitter to re-start the habit tweeting my updates as random stock thoughts pop into my head in between blog posts.

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Saturday, April 05, 2008

S&P500 Analysis (AMEX:SPY)

The path of least resistance is down (at least for the next week or so).

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While the S&P500 (SPDR Trust, AMEX:SPY) has performed quite well in the past week, there are a lot of warning signs that I see in the above chart:
- short term RSI is in overbought territory. While it certainly can remain in overbought territory, recent patterns suggest a reversion back below 70 as the market takes a breather.
- There is a red brick wall of resistance at 137-138 which SPY has been unable to overcome all of last week. The coming week's economic events (GDP report, ISM index, and non-farm payroll reports) do not suggest a viable foundation from which SPY can rally further. That said however, any upside surprise in the economic numbers could be the catalyst to spark a rally.
- There is an open gap at 132. This reminds me of the middle of last month, where the market meandered around like a directionless nomad before deciding to go down to test Jan/08 bottom.

So, basically, what I'm seeing is some directionless hesitation right at resistance. My bias is towards the downside, as I see more signs pointing towards the downside than I do see signs pointing towards the upside.

As for Visa, I have decided to move my stoploss up to $60 - my risk on this swing trade is now is $0.80, I think I can live with that.

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Tuesday, April 01, 2008

Bought Visa Inc. (NYSE:V)

Based on the analysis in my previous post, I bought some Visa Inc. (NYSE:V) at 60.80.  Stop loss is at 59.
More details later when I have more time to do a proper write-up.

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