Just a note on how I will be organizing my system.
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I think the best way to organize my system is to post my signals onto Twitter, and the daily update and discussion/analysis of results onto this blog.
I have created a new account, @pTradeSystem to facilitate posting of my signals.
I can't guarantee that I will post every signal, but the ones I do post will be as close to real time as possible.
Showing posts with label Ideas. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ideas. Show all posts
Thursday, July 08, 2010
Organizing my system
Friday, July 02, 2010
Trying out New System
trying a new approach.....
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To help address the issues in the previous post, i will be trying out a new mechanical indicator to help with my discretionary trading.
The mechanical indicator will work to supplement the discretionary trading of key Support/Resistance levels.
The purpose is to provide more discrete and rule based decision making so that I won't get frustrated at not taking valid signals.
I will post signals from this indicator for the next week into this blog, and also record the results of that signal. Then after 1 or 2 weeks, assess the result, make whatever tweaks are necessary, and then go live with this indicator.
Tuesday, May 18, 2010
Trade Update, May 18, 2010
Summary
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Added to my Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE: GS) position on the breakout above 140 as per plan. However, the sellers showed up later, and the broad based weakness led to Goldman Sachs selling off. I exited my full position at breakeven (140). Will probably need a couple days to determine whether there is any buy support at 136.6.
Started a 1/4 position in Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK.B) as per plan.
long 75.6, stop 73, target 80+
IBM (International Business Machines Corp., NYSE: IBM) has been acting the strongest during this OpEx selloff, along with MacDonald's. I will look to buy both names on weakness.
Another name has caught my eye, and that is American Capital Agency Corp. (NASDAQ: AGNC). This is a mortgage REIT that buys MBS's and CDO's and makes money on the interest rate spread. They pay a 21% dividend. They recently completed a secondary stock offering, which was priced at $25.75. I will monitor this stock to see if it can stay above 25.1 next Friday.
Saturday, May 15, 2010
Weekend Review, May 15, 2010
S&P 500 review, along with some stocks, and update to my buy list.
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This pullback feels a bit different from the previous one that occurred in Jan-Feb/10. In the previous one, BPSPX bottomed out at 64.5 before resuming its march forward. This time, we are already below 64. So, there is a potential for a deeper correction down to 1090 or so. However, I am not expecting the Feb/10 lows of 1040 to be violated. Because of the ongoing European Debt crisis, we may be entering a period of sideways movement until Sep/10.
Moving my stop in Visa Inc. (NYSE: V) up to 76, still hopeful it can dead cat bounce up to 81-ish.
Eyeing the gap fill at 71-ish for Baidu Inc. (NASDAQ: BIDU). This stock is showing amazing strength given current market conditions. I will try to get in before the start of earnings run-up next month.
Will also be looking to buy IBM (NYSE:IBM) for an earnings run-up. Note that it is also above its pre-crash levels. Baidu and IBM are one of the few stocks that I have found so far that are above its pre-crash levels. Well, Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) is just barely above its pre-crash levels, but since it is similar to Baidu, I will swing Baidu instead of Google.
no action yet until I see how it behaves under 141.5. My original plan still applies:
Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS):
wait for the dip below 140, and then buy the breakout back above 140
stop 135
target 150
Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE:BRK.B) is just barely above its pre-crash levels. Trading plan for this stock is a bit trickier. I think I will have to scale into this position.
1/4 position long at 76
1/4 position long at 75
1/4 position long at 74.5
1/4 position long at 74
initial stop on all 73
target 80
Plan for General Electric (NYSE:GE) slightly changed from original post :
buy any dip below 16.5
stop 14.0
target 21
All other plans for stocks that I mentioned previously are cancelled.
Saturday, May 08, 2010
Get Ready to Buy - Update
Update on my shopping list
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Here's what I plan to do in my retirement account if the following stocks reach my levels:
General Electric (NYSE:GE) :
buy any dip below 16.5
stop 14.5
target 22.5
Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS):
buy breakout above 140 if there is a dip below 140
stop 135
target 150
Visa (NYSE:V) (look at MA for confirmation)
buy 80-81
stop 77
target 88
Barclay's (NYSE:BCS):
buy breakout of 16.5
stop 15.5
target 19.5
McDonald's (NYSE:MCD):
buy 68.25
stop 67
target 72
MasterCard (NYSE:MA) (look at V for confirmation)
buy 220
stop 210
target 245
And no, I don't think it's a coincidence that they are all NYSE stocks.
If any of these trades trigger, I will make another update here.
Friday, May 07, 2010
Get Ready to Buy
Buy when there is blood in the streets..... we're getting close
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My shopping list includes:
Goldman Sachs
McDonald's
Visa
MasterCard
Barclay's
Sunday, June 15, 2008
Pockets of Strength: Visa and MasterCard
Time to buy Visa Inc (NYSE:V) and/or MasterCard Incorporated (NYSE:MA)
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There was a lot of technical damage done to the market in the past week, and I'm not sure that we've seen the bottom. However, despite all the carnage, I am sure that both Visa Inc (NYSE:V) and MasterCard Incorporated (NYSE:MA) are both in significant uptrends, as indicated by the blue line.
There are several reasons to buy either Visa or Mastercard this week:
1. They are both in uptrends
2. The financial sector is so beat up and pessimistically oversold that the conditions are there for a technical bounce.
3. They are both close to their respective trendlines, so the risk is not that bad.
Sunday, May 11, 2008
Weekend Thoughts
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Here are some interesting charts that I came across while surfing the past hour or so:
All of them look like good setups. If this were April, I would not hesitate to jump on them if they met my buy criteria. However, it is now May, and the market is not the same as it was in April. Case in point:
BPSPX (not shown in the above chart) is at 56, and the last time it was this high was near the middle of Dec/07. The SPDR Trust, Series 1 (AMEX: SPY) could not close above the 200d SMA, which is still trending down. SPY has actually climbed 11% since the lows put in in mid-Mar/08. While impressively outstanding, it is unusal for SPY to move so much in so short a time. I guess what I'm trying to say is that my opinion is that such performance is not sustainable. MACD and ADX are showing signs of a potential change in trend.
If I were to play any of the stocks in the first chart, I would be going in with caution in mind and it might even turn out to be a daytrade instead of a 2 or 3day flip. If I do make another trade this coming week, you can catch it on Jaiku.
Saturday, March 29, 2008
Visa Inc. (NYSE:V) Analysis
Summary -
- Defined resistance level in place
- possible support level exists, but is untested
- waiting for a fundamental event.
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Here is a chart of MasterCard Incorporated (NYSE:MA) just after its Initial Public Offering.
There are two things that I found somewhat interesting in the above chart:
- MA traded sideways for a couple months until a fundamental event occurred on Aug 3/06
- During this time of sideways trading, MA always stayed above the upper half of its OR (Daily Range of first day of trading).
Now compare that to Visa Inc. (NYSE:V):
While it's not a perfect match, I do see some similarities between how Visa has behaved with how MasterCard behaved the first week after its IPO:
- found resistance
- stayed above the upper range of its Opening range.
I interpret staying above the upper range of its Opening range as a good sign, as that means buyers are still acting aggressive with regards to this stock. However, in order for Visa to break above its resistance level @64.1-ish, it will require a fundamental event. An analyst upgrade from a big, well known brokerage house might do it, but what did it for MasterCard was an earnings beat.
Will Visa also report earnings that will beat expectations?
No clue. I don't even know when they will report earnings.
But for the sake of argument, let's pretend that for whatever reason, Visa was able to overcome resistance at 64.1 and ran up to $66-$67 on anticipation of a good earnings report. The earnings report disappoints expectations, and as a result, Visa drops 10% on the bad news. That would take it down to $60.
$60 also happens to be a level of possible support, so I will be watching to see how Visa behaves at around the 60-ish level (or even below), and buy if I see the rest of the herd buying.
Tuesday, January 01, 2008
Update: High Dividend Yield Stocks
Summary
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In this previous post, I looked at possible plays of some high yielding financial stocks. I really don't know anything about these stocks, other than the fact that they have a high dividend yield, and most of the charts of this group of stocks look pretty bad. I am pretty much relying on the market to tell me which one of these stocks are worth taking a closer look at.
Take a look at GLAD for instance. When it closed below 19, and couldn't break back above it the next day, brokers couldn't hit the sell button fast enough. Anyone who thinks that is just tax loss selling can be my guest at trying to time the bottom of this piece of crap.
There are some exceptions:
HBAN: if it can close above 15.5, or put in a few higher intraday lows, then there may be some hope for this stock.
CSE: Dec. 17 was the line in the sand for this stock. Any buys here should use the LoD from Dec. 17 as the stop.
CT: starting to look a bit precarious here. Buyers need to follow thru this week and retake 32. A close below 30 (esp. a bearish engulfing candle) invites a re-test of Nov. lows.
BPOP - this stock is the best of the bunch. After the lows in mid-Nov, buyers were able to take control, and price action was not messy on the way to recovery. I'm actually thinking of putting this one onto my watchlist, with a tag of the 20d EMA being the possible entry point.
A couple other high dividend yield stocks have caught my attention:
PCU - the current yield is almost 7.5%, which is pretty decent. However, it is almost impossible to hold this stock for the dividend yield without suffering through a 20% decline. That said however, the volatility also makes this a good daytrading, and even swing trading stock.
TNH - the current yield is at around 5.90%. Since the whole aggie sector is in an uptrend, that makes it easier to hold this one for the yield
So, now I have BPOP, TNH, PCU, AMZN on my watchlist. There are others, and I will discuss them as needed in upcoming posts.
Thursday, December 13, 2007
Possible Hot Sectors for 2008
Recession or no recession, there is always a bull market somewhere.
Some more ideas for my retirement account.
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I mentioned agricultural sector in this previous post as a sector in an uptrend. I get the sense that that sector uptrend in the aggies will likely carry well into 2008.
One that has flown under the radar are the exchanges. 
Although the 6month timeframe paints a more mixed picture, something did happen around October, and now half of the exchange stocks have started to trend up.
And of course, there is the old reliable oil sector:
Swinging some of the above oil stocks during Jan-Feb sometimes works, but the higher probability play might be to wait until late spring, when everyone is gearing up for summer driving season.
Solar is still pretty hot right now, but I can't help but wonder when the party will come to a crashing end.
Wednesday, November 28, 2007
Check Up: High Dividend Yield Stocks
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In this previous post, I looked at some possible plays of some high dividend yield stocks.
I'm curious to see how they have been performing since my last update.
GLAD: If there is buying volume coming in on a break above 19.75, then buy, with a stop=19.45. This is the best play out of the above group of sorry look stocks.
RESULT - stopped out.
FHN: If it bounces up from 22, then buy the first pullback that retraces less than 50% of that bounce, with a stop placed @21.75
RESULT - criteria not met, no trade
NCC: Look for buying volume to come in on a break above 22, stop=21.
RESULT - criteria not met, no trade
CT: The safer play is to buy the break above 34. But since the stop is going to be initially placed $28.6, it may be less risk to wait for price to drop below 30 before buying. Granted, buying on a drop below 30 may not necessarily be a high probability play.
RESULT - stopped out.
CSE: buy a break above 16.5, stop=15.5
RESULT - criteria not met, no trade
BPOP: buy @mkt if the intraday low is greater than 9.62, stop=9.45
RESULT - criteria not met, no trade
With GLAD, I actually decided to stay in the trade even though it dropped below my stop level. I rationalized it, arguing that it was resilient enough to stay above the 20d EMA. I realize now that I still haven't shaken my bad habit of moving my stop after entering the trade. The other thing was that my trading plan for GLAD was flawed, since I did not account for the scenario where it would tag the 20d EMA and bounce off of it. So that's another thing to work on before I am ready to go back to trading full-time.
Anyways, with that self-analysis out of the way, I must say, I like GLAD out of the whole group. Most of the remaining stocks in that group still look very ill and broken. Except maybe BPOP. BPOP is actually starting to look constructive to me. If it can stay above $9 for the rest of this week, then I will be looking to buy a break above $10 next week.
Friday, November 16, 2007
High Dividend Yield Stocks
Another list of stocks to add to my swing trading watchlist.
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Earlier today, Chairman Mao listed 2 dozen high yielding financial stocks. Here is a chart of the first 10 (because the free version of stockcharts can display only 10):
None of them look particularly attractive from a technical analysis point of view. However, if you put a gun to my head, here are the ones that I would consider:
GLAD: If there is buying volume coming in on a break above 19.75, then buy, with a stop=19.45. This is the best play out of the above group of sorry look stocks.
FHN: If it bounces up from 22, then buy the first pullback that retraces less than 50% of that bounce, with a stop placed @21.75
NCC: Look for buying volume to come in on a break above 22, stop=21.
CT: The safer play is to buy the break above 34. But since the stop is going to be initially placed $28.6, it may be less risk to wait for price to drop below 30 before buying. Granted, buying on a drop below 30 may not necessarily be a high probability play.
CSE: buy a break above 16.5, stop=15.5
BPOP: buy @mkt if the intraday low is greater than 9.62, stop=9.45
Note that 8 out of the 10 closed below its opening price, so it should come as no surprise that they tend to move as a group. Note also that the above buying criteria is a assuming that the market does not move further down from here. Any significant intraday downtrend in SPY and XLF would invalidate all of the above buy scenarios.
Sunday, November 11, 2007
Short the Loonie?
Summary
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It seems like the whole world is against the Loonie these days. I had previously mentioned that a newsletter purveyor had been recommending to short the Loonie ever since Sep/07. Now even Canada's own politicians are trying to stop the ascent of the Loonie. Although emotions are discouraged in this game, but just for the record, I do feel a bit of sadness that everyone is against the Loonie.
Believe it or not, the Loonie's uptrend is still intact, despite the vicious 4cent drop in the past 3 days. The 20d EMA is currently sitting @1.05, and the 38.2% Fib RT is at around 1.044. Both of those levels would need to break in order for the Loonie to be considered in a downtrend. And with no economic reports scheduled to be released for the coming week, only a USD$ rally can break the current uptrend in the Loonie.
The DailyFX article I linked in my delicious bookmarks called for USD to rally as high as 0.97 before correcting. That translates into $1.03 in the above chart. If the Loonie breaks below the 20d EMA and the 38.2% Fib RT, then I can definitely see that as a realistic scenario. The USD$ is starting to find support in the low 75's, so if it does start to rally off this support base, then that would mean a continued downward bias on the Loonie. But, it would also show up in the Aussie, Cable and Euro, so that is one thing I will watch for in tonight's overnight session, and over the next couple of days - a simultaneous movement in the four major currencies. I've seen this and posted about it on two previous occasions.
For the Loonie, if it can close above 1.082, then it will be able to challenge contract highs @1.104. But this will be a daunting task, as I believe there are plenty of sellers waiting at around 1.072 - 1.074. The more likely scenario which I believe will unfold this coming week is some consolidation inside the congestion area between 1.075 and 1.065.
Trading the Loonie will be difficult because there are several scenarios that could take place in the coming week, so if I don't see the simultaneous movement in the next day or two, I will mostly stick to scalping it for 10 or 20 ticks at a time.
Friday, June 22, 2007
Volume charts
started looking at volume charts last week.....
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Here is the chart of ES from today's market session:
Now, here is a volume chart (6000 contracts per bar, 250bars total) of the same market session:
Volume charts are fast becoming more interesting to me than the regular intraday charts. For one thing, I can see the change in momentum happening much more clearly than with the regular intraday chart. Not sure if this is typical of all volume charts, but I am leaning towards using them exclusively for my trading. In the mean time, I will start using them alongside the regular intraday chart starting next week.
Wednesday, March 28, 2007
Chart Review of Select Uranium stocks
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UraMin: Printed two low volume, inside days, uptrend intact, buy on break above today's HoD:
Paladin: chart looks good, uptrend intact. Hard to find a good entry point, although there is some weak support @8.96.
BaysWater Uranium: 10d EMA crossing above the 20d EMA, looks like it could break out. Buy on a break above 2.0, or any pullback that stays above the gap between 1.70 and 1.78.
Sunday, March 11, 2007
Ideas For The Week Of March 12, 2007
All of the ones I dug up this week are low avg volume.
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CCMP: In a more calm environment, I would be looking at the break above 34-ish, but in this environment (and perhaps in all kinds of environments as well??), I am looking for a pullback to the 20d EMA 
MHK: What's interesting about this chart is that prior resistance that acts as current support applies not only to price levels, but to trendlines as well, as shown in the chart.
AOI: Looks like a decent low risk entry @the 10d EMA:
Plus, there's DECK which should be good for a scalp of a few dimes.
CMGI looks interesting @1.70
If the market tanks again, I'll be looking at CAL.
Saturday, March 03, 2007
watchlist for week of March 5, 2007
Picking out something that's worthwhile to watch amongst the pile of rubble is also not an easy task.
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ADBL - The daily chart indicates that there is no low risk entry, although the above 5d chart indicates a potential entry point ***IF*** the pullback were to end this coming week. In any case, it's worth watching and waiting for the current pullback to end.
BRCD - Watching the 9.25 level
DECK - This boring shoe company looks to be the most promising of the bunch. Watching the 68 level.
Sunday, February 11, 2007
Ideas For The Week Of February 12, 2007
Market direction is unclear at best, but I did manage find a few interesting ideas for this week. Most of them are swing trading ideas, although you're more than welcome to daytrade them if you see enough volume to justify it.
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STP -
This chart basically says all the momentum has died off, so why am I picking it as an idea for the coming week? Because it also looks like it will test support @36.50 this week, and a successful test of support could mark a buying opp. (ie. buying at support, selling at resistance).
CNQR -
There is a possible play of the pullback pattern with CNQR. Watch for volume and higher lows this week.
GIGM -
GIGM is another play of the pullback pattern.
FRG -
Gold. Uranium. 'Nuff said.
GLG -
Low volume, but it's got the Mojo.
KRY -
Too late for the initial breakout, but a couple of higher lows is the next best thing.
Tuesday, February 06, 2007
Watching the Uranium Index
Here are some of the stocks in my "proprietary" Uranium index which I find interesting.
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Currently 2nd place in my Uranium Index, Forsys Metals (TSX:FSY) is currently in a pullback. There is some resistance at the 7.0 level, so that makes it the level to watch.
Laramide Resources (TSX: LAM) is currently in a low volatility trading range. Watch for a break above 11, or break below 10.
UraMin Inc (TSX: UMN) is sitting right at resistance and is on the verge of breaking out. Watch volume and price-action as always.
Volume has picked up for UrAsia Energy (TSXV:UUU), and 6.25 is the level to watch. I picked up some today @5.97.
The chart of Paladin Resources (TSX:PDN) is so beautiful, that I didn't want to dirty it with my annotations. It is also on the verge of new 52-wk and ATH's. Will need to see volume to continue this current run-up. Can you believe that this used to be $1 ?? I picked up some today @8.40.
Denison Mines Corp. (TSX: DML) is on the verge of putting in higher lows, finishing off the ascending triangle formation. If anyone is betting against this happening, I'd like to hear your thoughts and rationale.
Even though I have not made any significant profits from trading Strateco Resources (TSXV: RSC), I will be watching to see if buy volume shows up at the 3.0 level. The price level is almost irrelevant for this junior uranium company; it's the volume that is the key here.
I have one word for Aurora Energy Resources (TSX: AXU): 15.55 !
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