Summary
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My head just wasn't into copper today, so I played it real conservative (and perhaps even a little fearful), and scalped it a few times for 30 points here, and 20 points there, plus one 5 point loss.
My biggest play was the one highlighted in the above chart, but I wimped out, and bailed once I had my miniscule 50 point profit. Had I trailed my stop properly, I could have ridden most of that down swing.
This was the first time that I observed in real-time, the much written about Box Play chart pattern. I didn't think a stock daytrading pattern would show up in futures trading, but I have been proven wrong in today's example. The pre-requisite setup for the box play is two (or more) tags of support, and two (or more) tags of resistance. Then you have a double top versus a double bottom. As noted in MtM, the break of that range is good for a move that is comparable to the size of the range.
The box play setup was very textbook (and also turns out to be the only big play of the day) - you would be hard pressed to find a better setup than that.
Monday, April 30, 2007
Box Play: Copper Futures
Sunday, April 29, 2007
Uranium Index: Week15
Read Full Post.....
Test of support @26100 will occur this week.
Index Value: 26,488.13
Best Performers: LAM, UMN
Worst Performers: EFR, CXX
Index Performance:Week 4: -4.11%
Since inception: +32.44%
Thursday, April 26, 2007
Copper Analysis
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It's taken about a week and a half to work off the momentum from this most recent run up in copper. Momentum is starting to slowly die off.
Today's LoD was 348, so the area to to watch closely is 346-348.
So long as the 10d EMA stays above the 20d EMA, the current up trend is still intact. Of the various scenarios that could unfold at this point, one of the better ones would be the 10d EMA tagging the 20d EMA, and then a big up day.
Although I've drawn in the trendline from the past two months, a break below this trendline doesn't really say anything significant at this stage - all it would mean is that we have a confirmed pullback. I would need to see a break below 320 - now that would be a significant technical event.
Copper Futures Trade
Summary
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The line drawn at 3.53 is derived from the daily chart. First two trades seemed like a good setup at the time I took them, but once I remembered to refer to my notebook for the daily chart numbers, I realized that the setup was not that good.
Third trade was the best trade of the day - a breakdown of the number from the daily chart.
In the fourth trade, I did not have the courage to hold on longer - I kept thinking that the sellers would come back at any minute.
In the last trade, I was just mucking around, and thought the ascending triangle pattern was worth a shot. Note that the red volume bar was green at the time I took the trade.
Silver Analysis
Make or Break time....
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Interesting to note that up until the first week of Apr/07, there were no unfilled gaps in the chart. Now we have a gap down, which could make most of April one massive, gargantuan mother of all Island Cluster reversals. Could, but of all the scenarios that could unfold from here on out, that is one of the more unlikely scenarios. If you put a gun to my head and made me guess, I would guess that there would be at least some attempt to fill today's gap down. So that means we could possibly see a bounce to at least the 134.9 level.
In the mean time, the short term uptrend is definitely broken, and first up is the test of the current long term uptrend.
Silver is at a crossroads. Either the long term uptrend for almost the past year remains intact and we bounce back up, or we break and close below the trend.
Either way, a good trading opportunity is just around the corner.
Wednesday, April 25, 2007
Today's Futures Trades
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Trade1:
Risk = 50 ticks
Profit = 60 ticks
Trade2:
Risk = 50ticks
Profit = 80 ticks
Trade3:
Risk = 20ticks
Profit = 10ticks
Trading Copper today was effortless, I did not feel like I had to fight the tape, and patience was easy to come by.
Trade1:
Risk = 10 ticks
Profit = 8 ticks
Trade2:
Risk = 20 ticks
Profit = -20 ticks (note that chart indicates I sold at the second red bar - that is incorrect, I actually stopped out at the first red bar)
I made the mistake of moving my stops down to aggressively in the first trade, and that mistake cost me a lot of profits. In the second trade, the mistake from the first trade was still messing with my head. After the second trade I decided to stop trading silver for the remainder of the day.
So, it sounds like I had a good trading day overall, right? Wrong.
I tried to chase the uptrend in ES again, and broke my rule of 4 trades per futures contract. Watching a strong uptrend like that was too compelling, I am still learning how to control the urge to chase a strong uptrending day like that. As a result of my overtrading ES, I lost much of the gains that I had made in Copper.
ES seems to bring the "be a dick for every tick" in me, whereas I seem to be more patient with Copper. They are obviously different markets, and with that comes different subtleties and different market behaviours - however, I have to do better in behaving the same way towards any market.
SP500 analysis
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Well, I totally wrong about yesterday's theory that the gap @147.25 would be filled. In fact, the market threatened to leave today's gap up unfilled as well. After watching today's market action, I can't find a even a sliver of a bearish case in the chart.
Any gap downs are filled quickly, any gap ups threaten to be unfilled - if it wasn't obvious by now, the bulls are in control. The only way these 3 gaps left behind in SPY will be filled is if we get a change in trend.
Trend is up. We may get one or two down days here and there, but they will likely be bought up in this latest bull run. Until the uptrend changes, make it your friend by buying on any pullbacks, since that's what everyone else has been doing in the past 2 weeks.
Strong support @147.3 - 147.5, weaker support @148.6. I see no significant resistance levels, given that SPY put in a new ATH today.
SP500 analysis
Analysis of the S&P 500 spyders (SPY) chart...
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There have been unfilled 3 gap ups for the month of April. Each successive unfilled gap up increases the possibility of the most recent gap up being filled.
The gap up from last friday has a good chance of being filled. That implies a test of the 147.25 level is in the cards. Whether the test of 147.25 fails or succeeds is anyone's guess.
Trend is up, but a close below 147 would signal a pullback - but not necessarily a break in the uptrend, since the 20d EMA is at 145.5.
I try to remain objective and neutral. However, it is worth noting that SPY shows 3 white candlesticks on the weekly chart. And the technicals on the weekly chart indicate overbought conditions.
UPDATE:
Each successive unfilled gap up does NOT increase the possibility of the most recent gap up being filled. This is just a theory of mine, and I have no hard data to back this up. Thanks to Richard for pointing this out.
The first two gaps in April are breakaway gaps, because they gapped above resistance. Those two are unlikely to be filled. However, the most recent gap up from this past friday was NOT a breakaway gap. That's what led me to think that this gap up will be filled.
Tuesday, April 24, 2007
Internet Intermission
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How does the small arrow in the screen of the computer work when we move the mouse?
Haven't you ever wondered how it works?
Now, through the miracle of the high technology, we can see how it is done.
With the aid of a screen magnifying lens the mechanism becomes apparent.
Ever wonder how to get from New York City to Paris, France ? Hint: Read at least the first half of the directions.....
Here's one description of the sense of loss at losing a dear friend.
Can you resist laughing with this girl laughing at a guy who is laughing at another guy?
Here's a twist on the MAC vs. PC advertising.....
Saturday, April 21, 2007
Uranium Index, Week 14
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After a week of regulatory delays, the merger between UrAsia Energy and SXR Uranium finally completed on Friday after market close. I completed my index update last week, so although it was a week early, I actually don't mind, since UUU had a higher weight in the index last week.
My uranium index extended its slide downwards from last week, although it looks like it may have put in the bottom on Friday. But technically, we won't know whether Friday was the bottom or not until we see a test of the 26100 level. As indicated in the above chart, there isn't a specific level of support, but more of an area of support. We'll have to see how this coming week unfolds.
One other thing that I've noticed is that my uranium index is loosely following the short term trend of the TSX Composite index. Market sentiment for the TSX index is unclear right now, although I will say that we are much closer to a short term top than we are to a short term bottom. Regardless, I still think that the uranium index will at least make the roundtrip back up to the ATH's at around 28500. What happens after that is anyone's guess.
One last interesting news item is that UxC announced that it signed an agreement with NYMEX to offer a uranium futures product. This uranium futures contract will start trading in the first week of May 2007. This is certainly an interesting turn of events. No more will we have to wait for the release of uranium prices from UxC each Monday. And we will now get to see just how much hedge fund interest there is in the uranium market. Very interesting times indeed.
Friday, April 20, 2007
Copper Futures Trade
Summary
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Risk = 0.0030
Profit = 0.0085
HG had a massive breakout earlier this week, and I was watching it ever since. Today, it dropped down to its PP of 3.59, which was a reaction point in yesterday's trading, 3.60 was a reaction point from last week.
After touching 3.59, it proceeded to climb back up, and setup a nice ascending triangle pattern. I bought the pullback to the trendline, a textbook entry with a textbook exit. Sold into strength, as I could see from the price action that there was pressure building up for the breakout above 3.62. With today being OPEX, it was not surprising to me that the breakout above 3.62 failed.
This was my only trade in Copper today.
For the life of me, I cannot figure out why I couldn't do this with ES today. There was no pressure to perform today. I wonder if there was a part of me today that wanted to capture every move, and be a dick for every tick. I certainly did feel like I was missing out on the big downtrend in ES in the morning, and the roundtrip back up in the afternoon.
To facilitate posting these charts, I will impose a new rule on myself starting next week: Four trades max. per day, and max four futures markets per day. So that means, I get only four chances to get it right with ES, and if I still didn't get it right after that, chances are I won't be able to get it right for the rest of the day, so I should not trade for the rest of that day.
Must Remember to Use the Hourly chart
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Earlier this week, I wrote down in my personal journal notebook to start looking at the hourly chart in conjunction with the 5min. chart that I usually look at for the futures contracts that I am trading.
The hourly chart not only provides a good sense of direction, but it also helps to identify what I call "reaction" spots that previously occurred for that futures contract. These reaction spots usually leads to a good buy/sell opportunity.
Unfortunately, today, I just totally ignored what my notebook told me to do. Had I looked at the hourly chart, I would have identified 1484-1485 as a previous reaction spot. Instead, I wound up overtrading again from trying to chase the trend, and gave up much of the gains that I got from following the OMNI. I feel angry and frustrated at myself for failing to heed my own reminders. It's not a good way to end the week.
Silver Futures Trade
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Trade1:
Risk = 20 ticks. (13.839 was my stop)
Profit = +31 ticks
Trade2:
Risk = 15 ticks
Profit = +15 ticks
Trade3:
Risk = 12 ticks
Profit = +4 ticks
Trade4:
Risk = 15 ticks
Profit = -6 ticks
In trade1, volume was unusually quiet, but once it came in, I sold into strength, and also the fact that it was nearing the S1 level.
In trade2, I could see that ZI was having a bit of trouble with the 13.66 level, but the trend was up (especially since all the sellers were exhausted in the selloff just prior), so it looked like it was setting up for mini-breakout.
In trade4, I should have gotten stopped out, but I was using a mental stop for the first time in a while. I could tell from watching the price action that it wanted to bounce for a bit before going down, so I waited for the bounce to play itself out.
I feel in synch with ZI's movements. I hope this does not end once the contract rolls over to the July contracts (end of Friday).
Thursday's SnP e-Mini Futures Trade
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I found it hard to find a low risk entry once the uptrend had started, because it was quite choppy, and at times, it would seem that the uptrend was broken, only to suddenly come back.
I overtraded again, but this time, it did not backfire on me. My best trade of the day turned out to be my last trade of the day, when I finally found a decent short entry.
Wednesday, April 18, 2007
Creature of Habit
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As a 66/33 INTP/INFP personality type, I understand that I am the kind of person that thrives on having variety in my life.
That's why lately, I find myself a little confused as to why I keep trading the same futures contract.
There are actually many different futures markets to trade - there are the major currencies (Yen, Euro, Pound, Loonie), the major metals (Gold, Silver, Platinum, Copper), and other indicies (YM, ER2, NQ, and even the major European indicies like the Dax). So, there is something for everyone.
Even the most comfortable shirt needs to be taken out and washed once in a while. I've actually tried trading some of the currencies, and even the MiNY Crude (QM), and yet, I always have the tendency torepeatedly return to the same two markets - Silver and SP500. I really thought I would have been bored with trading the Spoos and Silver by now, but that is not the case. On the contrary, I feel even more motivated to do my homework on these two markets, study it even more and learn how to trade them even better.
I haven't quite yet developed a routine for my futures trading, but I will be working on that. One thing I want to investigate is whether the system of alerts that I had used when I was swing trading and daytrading equities would be applicable and transferrable to the futures trading. Won't really know until I try it out for a certain period of time.
Wednesday's SnP e-Mini Futures Trade
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Trade1:
Risk = 1.25pts
Profit = -1.25pts.
Today, I could not shake the OMNI's bearish bias. I actually tried to time the top again later on for a half point loss.
ES would finally pullback in a meaningful way after tagging the R1 level. I saw it unfold before my eyes, but did nothing. My brain just froze up. Missed out on 5pts
Wednesday's Silver Futures Trade
Read Full Post.....
Risk = 20pts
Profit = 26pts
Woke up late today, so I missed the earlier long and short opportunities.
And I saw something that I don't see very often at all - the next bar after I sold was a gap up - ZI gapped up from 13.996 to 14.006.
Tuesday, April 17, 2007
Tuesday's Silver Futures Trade
Summary
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Trade1:
Risk = 17pts
Profit = 59pts
Trade2:
Risk = 13pts
Profit = 37pts
The entry for trade1 was admittedly not the best and lowest risk entry, so I think I got away with one there.
The second one was easy - intraday support @13.975, so this was a low risk entry.i
Silver has been very volatile lately, so timing the entries is the key to profits.
Tuesday's SnP e-Mini Futures Trade
Summary
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Trade1:
Risk = 2 pts
Profit = 6.25 pts
Trade2:
Risk = 1 pt
Profit = 1 pt
First trade was an OMNI trade, so I cannot say that it was my own trade (although I don't have a problem with taking credit for it!).
Second trade was a play of the breakout. Breakout trading doesn't always work for futures, but the setup was there and the price action looked favourable for the breakout.
Saturday, April 14, 2007
Uranium Index, Week 13
Summary
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This week, the index started off the week by jumping up to new ATH's on news that the U3O8 spot price jumped up to $113/lb, but then proceeded to give back most of that initial one-day gain during the remainder of the week. Trend is still up, although next week there might be a continuation of this pullback, we'll just have to see how the market sentiment is at that time.
Other than that, there's nothing much else to report.
With the merger of SXR Uranium One and UrAsia all set to complete early next week, now is as good a time as any to update my Uranium index as follows:
1. Sell all of Urasia Energy (UUU.v)
2. Use 25% of the proceeds to buy Energy Fuels (EFR)
3. Use 25% of the proceeds to buy BaysWater Uranium (BAY)
4. Use 25% of the proceeds to buy PowerTech Uranium (PWE)
5. Use 25% of the proceeds to buy TriEx Minerals (TXM)
My uranium index now consists of the following component companies (listed in order of index weight):
1. Forsys Metals (FSY)
2. Laramide Resources (LAM)
3. UraMin Inc. (UMN)
4. Strathmore Minerals (STM)
5. Energy Metals (EMC)
6. UEX Corp. (UEX)
7. Uranium Participation (U)
8. Denison Mines Corp. (DML)
9. Strateco Resources (RSC)
10. Mega Uranium (MGA)
11. SXR Uranium One (SXR)
12. Ur-Energy (URE)
13. Khan Resources (KRI)
14. Paladin Resources (PDN)
15. JNR Resources (JNN)
16. Aurora Energy Resources (AXU)
17. Western Prospector Group (WNP)
18. Cameco Corp. (CCO)
19. Crosshair Exploration & Mining (CXX)
20. Energy Fuels (EFR)
21. BaysWater Uranium (BAY)
22. PowerTech Uranium (PWE)
23. TriEx Minerals (TXM)
Index Value: 27,624.88
Best Performers: MGA, KRI
Worst Performers: CXX, WNP
Index Performance:Week 4: +1.72%
Since inception: +36.60%
Friday, April 13, 2007
Friday's SnP e-Mini Futures Trade
Read Full Post.....
Trade1:
Risk = 1.50 pts
Profit = +4.25 pts.
Trade2:
Risk = 2.25 pts.
Profit = +4.50 pts.
Trade2 implied that I was adding to my short at the wrong place at the wrong time. So, the lesson for today is that I should try to do all my shorting at once, or just wait until the risk/reward is more favourable. IF 1453 had not been a previous support level, then the fact that ES based around that level would have been the better place to add to my short.
Yesterday's SnP e-Mini Futures Trade
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Yesterday, I had a bearish bias, and ignored the trend. My thesis was to short at resistance (1450-1452), but when that proved to be incorrect, I should have recognized early on, instead of letting my bearish bias take over. The lesson here is simple - learn to recognize (and accept) as early as possible when you are wrong, that will limit my losses.
Friday's Silver Futures Trade
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Trade:
Risk = 10pts
Profit = +12pts.
This one was a tough one to take. I had the opportunity to take profits below 14.07, but I decided to practice my stop management instead. When it first dropped below 14.10 @6am, I lowered my stop to 14.123. Then it hit 14.07, and I was wondering what to do, so I decided to draw that downtrend line. With each bar completion, I lowered my stop according to the downtrend line. My stop got hit when the price violated the downtrend line, and didn't go back down, so I was out, and that was that.
Probably if I entered more than one contract, I would have surely taken partial profits on that drop down to 14.07.
When ZI touched the R2 line again, I thought about shorting it again. However, the fact that it violated my downtrend line, and took out my stop before proceeding to drop back down kind of made me tentative, and a bit flustered. I was hesitant for about 5minutes, and that was it for my window of opportunity.
I decided to not make any more trades in ZI after that, just didn't feel into it enough.
Another Casualty in the Futures Trading ?
Someone wants to call it quits.
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I've never met Boogster. I don't really know too much about him. I only know him through avidly following his posts on his futures trades. And now, I read that Boogster wants to quit futures trading.
At first I felt a bit angry upon reading this. Why would someone who put so much time and effort into becoming a futures trader want to throw that all away?
But when I think about it more, the fundamental issue isn't about how futures trading is really hard (which it is), it isn't about how losing money damages the pysche (even though it does). In my opinion, the real, root issue that we're dealing with here is about the revelation of one's own weaknesses. I've said it before, trading will tell you exactly what your personality shortcomings are.
I'm not saying that Boogster fits into this category, but I've seen it too many times, where people do not want to face their own weaknesses. Many people would much rather prefer to sweep their weaknesses under the carpet, and forget about it in hopes that it will go away. The sad part about this is that they are trading some short term gain for some long term pain down the road. Eventually, left alone and unchecked, these weaknesses will at some point rear their ugly heads when they least expect it. I can say this with conviction because it's happened to me before.
For me, swing trading allowed me to sweep my lack of patience and discipline under the carpet, because I was better able to hide behind my winners, and winning trades more often. With futures trading, there is nowhere to run, nowhere to hide. You weaknesses are handed to you almost every day, and you are forced to deal with them or quit.
I've also said this before, but I am beginning to be able to view things more from the perspective of patience. Every now and then, I still have relapses (which leads to my inconsistency), but when I am patient, it always leads to me feeling good about my trading performance (regardless of whether I made a profitable or losing trade). When I do not stick to my plan, or forget about being patience, it inevitably leads me to feel bad about my trading performance (even though those bad feelings are better suppressed when I manage to wind up with a profitable trade).
What would the Highly Effective Trader do if he were in this situation? Well, he certainly would not quit. He would find what it takes to work on improving the habits of patience and discipline, even if it means being away from the markets for a short time.
Boogster says it better than me:
"If I can trade futures, then I can trade any instrument."
Don't quit trading futures, Boogster. You will just be running away from your problems instead of finding a way to deal with them.
Besides, who will help me now to make the call on YM's intraday bottom ?
Wednesday, April 11, 2007
SnP e-Mini Futures Trade
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Trade1:
Risk = 1pt
Profit = +4.75 pts.
Trade2:
Risk = 1pt
Profit = +1pt
Trade3:
Risk = 1.50 pt
Profit = +3.0 pts.
Trade4:
Risk = 1.0 pt
Profit = -0.75 pt.
Today I tried to follow the OMNI as best as I could. I exited my first trade prematurely, as the OMNI exited their short @1449. I exited because I wanted to protect my profits.
In Trade #2, I was playing the TICK extreme, and didn't realize that I had timed the bottom, until a few minutes after I exited the trade. In retrospect, it was the post 7am (PST) reversal time, it was at S2, and there was buy volume coming in, so I should have tried to resist selling just a few minutes longer just to see how it would behave, and where it would go.
In Trade #3, I saw that the ES was slowly bleeding downwards ahead of the 2pm release of the FOMC minutes. When it became clear that it would not break above 1453.50, I shorted @market, and then @market again. I screwed up my exit because I did not have a profit target in mind, plus I wanted to protect my profits. (yes, I see the common theme here !)
In Trade #4, it was a mistake, I was trying to anticipate more downwards movement that never materialized.
The good news is that I felt that I performed really well today even though I screwed up my exits. The bad news is that lately, I have followed up a good performance with a bad performance. Yesterday or today should be no different than any other day, and yet, somehow, I manage to perform inconsistently.
There's a million upon googol of things that I want to do, one of which includes getting back into equities and options day/swing trading, but none of that really matters if I cannot improve upon my patience (wait for the low risk, high probability setup to come to me), and discipline (sticking to the plan that I have prepared for each day). I need to work on my consistency more, I don't always have to take a trade, I should never ignore the homework that I did the previous night, and of course, I should trust more in my ability to perform.
Tuesday, April 10, 2007
SnP e-Mini Futures Trade
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Today my trading was plagued with indecision. I'm not sure why, but lately, I've been indecisive with my entry and exits. I did my homework the previous night, and I knew what I wanted to do, and what my plan was, but today for some reason, I ignored it once the trading starts. I need to focus more if I'm going to make this work. I need to be more self conscious of when my mind starts to wander and ignore my pre-determined plan.
Solar Starting to Heat Up
Could this be the next stealth bull market?
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I haven't been keeping a close eye on the solar stocks. Today, I decided to check in on them. Don't look now, but many of the solar power stocks are starting to warm up.
I like the following solar power stocks on any pullback that does not violate today's LoD:
First Solar (FSLR),
Evergreen Solar (ESLR),
SunPower Corp. (SPWR),
Ascent Solar Technologies (ASTI)
Honourable mention goes to Canadian Solar Inc. (CSIQ), which has had a dummy setup for the past week now. Any move above 10.11 should get the buy volume going, with a sell stop of 9.59.
Monday, April 09, 2007
Twitter Update
My twitter should be ok now....
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My problems with Twitter have been frustrating. First it would magically add followers to my friends list without my consent, and then it would prevent me from deleting friends.
I tried everything to get my twitter account back to normal, including contacting their tech support line. They said that they fixed it, but I was still unable to delete friends. So, what I wound up doing was to delete my twitter account, ie. kill myself, and then re-create the same account.
If Twitter wasn't so addictive, I would have abandoned it altogether.
I am born again as Phileo99 on twitter, my account should be back to normal now.
Mega Uranium
I daytraded Mega Uranium, and left a lot of profits on the table, but that's ok with me.
Read Full Post.....
I sold MGA near the ATH's because it had showed signs of stalling. My laptop started slowing down after I had sold, and by the time I rebooted, and had everything up and running, MGA had run past 7.60.
What makes today's price action interesting is the buy volume that suddenly showed up right after lunch. It's as if all the mutual fund managers went for lunch, then came back and all decided to press the panic buy button at the same time.
Mega Uranium (TSX: MGA) has the potential to run-up much like how FSY and LAM did in recent weeks. I will be looking out for this tomorrow. As always, Volume is the key.
Friday, April 06, 2007
Uranium Index, Week 12
All systems go
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As you can tell, my uranium index closed at new ATH's to close out this shortened week. The best time to buy was when I mentioned about 2 weeks ago that it was time to buy. That was a low risk entry point, and a run to at least the ATH's was a gimme. At that point, if it could not break above the ATH's, then you could sell and pocket the profits, or let ride if it can break above the ATH's (as it is doing now). I will watch out for more situations like this in the future.
This week's run-up has not been as impressive as in the past. The best week ever for this index was Week5 (around mid Feb), when it gained +10% for the week. I miss those days of easy money. This week was one of those where you had to hold overnight in order to capture most of the gains. However, I shouldn't complain because the index managed to put in a nice performance despite a shortened week.
Anyways, trend is still up, even though U3O8 spot price stayed the same, at $95/lb.
I'm starting to hear talk of a uranium bubble. I'm not sure what these guys are smoking. How do you build up a bear case against uranium? Price is unsustainable, price will crash once more uranium production comes online, companies don't actually sell at spot price, blah, blah, blah, ad nauseum...... I go strictly by the chart, and the index is not showing any signs of a uranium bubble, that is the bottom line for me. Worked for me in the past, it's working for me now, and I will follow it until it is no longer working for me. Actually, when these uranium bears capitulate and finally go bullish, then that is the sign of a top !!
The merger between Urasia Energy and SXR Uranium One has been approved. The transaction will close either the end of next week, or sometime in the following week. After much contemplation, I have decided that I will replace UUU with the following four junior uranium miners (on the day the merger transaction is completed):
1. Energy Fuels (EFR)
2. BaysWater Uranium (BAY)
3. TriEx Minerals (TXM)
4. U3O8 Corp (UWE)
The funds from UUU will be equally distributed to each of the above 4 stocks. UUU currently represents 5.83% of the overall index, so each of the above stocks will each receive a weight of about 1.46% of the overall index. Incidentally, the index is now influenced more by FSY, UMN, and LAM - these 3 companies collectively contribute to almost 20% of the index's performance. So these 3 companies are the ones to watch if you want to get a general, approximate idea of where my index is headed.
Index Value: 27,624.88
Best Performers: KRI, SXR
Worst Performers: STM, JNN
Index Performance:Week 12: +6.96%
Since Inception: +38.10%
Wednesday, April 04, 2007
Khan Resources Inc.
I swing traded Khan Resources Inc. (TSX: KRI).
Read Full Post.....
1. Why did I take this trade?
Because Khan Resources (KRI) is a uranium stock, and it showed some heavy breakout volume yesterday morning.
2. What was the initial stop?
I placed the initial stop at 4.09, for a risk of 4 cents.
This morning, I moved my stop up to $4.26, then to $4.40 on the remaining half of my position too soon.
3. Why did you exit where you did?
Volume was less than yesterday, and it was stalling out at 4.70, even though there was heavy volume.
4. Is there anything you would do differently?
I should have doubled my position size. High probability, morale boosting plays like this don't come along very often in this sort of a market environment that we're in.
Silver Futures Trade
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I had a hunch that R2 would be very close to the HoD for ZI, but did not have enough conviction to act upon that belief.
The MA's provided 2 to 3 additional scalping opportunities, but I was not focused enough to act upon them when the opportunity came (and passed just as quick).
SnP e-Mini Futures Trade
Summary
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Trade1:
Risk = 1.0 pt
Gain = -0.25 pt.
Trade2: Risk = 1.0 pt.
Gain = -1.25 pt.
In trade1, I made the mistake of being undecided between whether to follow the OMNI, or just take my scalp while I still had the profits. The indecision cost me.
In Trade2, I simply held on for too long. I was playing a breakout, it never followed thru, my thesis for being in the trade was invalidated, I should have gotten out much earlier.
Today I felt good, and had no urge to take low probability setups, nor did I feel any urge to overtrade. Now if I can only remember this feeling, and repeat what I did today going forward !
Incidentally, the OMNI taught me a few lessons today. First one was when the OMNI moved the stop up from 1437 to 1442 after the initial attempt to break above 1450 - this implied that 1444.25 should be the LoD, and if it wasn't that's definitely where you want to bail. When it failed to break above resistance @1450, there was a good chance (and still plenty of time) to take another stab at 1450, it was just a matter of waiting for the next TICK extreme. The first -ve TICK extreme after 1450 occured just after 1030am (PST), and that never made it to the LoD, thereby confirming the original hypothesis (ie. 1444.25 was the LoD). So now that we knew our LoD, it was just a matter of finding out what our HoD would be. The next +ve TICK extreme happened just after 12pm (PST), ES never made it to 1450, that was the sign to get out of the trade and that's exactly what the OMNI did.
One other note: Today, the chart told me that being below the MA's is not a bad sign at all if a higher low has been put in.
Monday, April 02, 2007
Silver Futures Trade
My scalper mentality remains. But for today at least, it has not damaged my psyche.
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Gold, Silver and Crude Oil all rallied at around 930am (PST). Silver had the best rally of the three commodities.
SnP e-Mini Futures Trade
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Trade 1:
Risk = 1.0pts
Gain = 4.25pts
Trade 2:
Risk = 1.0pt
Gain = -1.25pts
Today, the ES behaved very predictably. There was a reversal just after 7am (PST), and a second reversal after 11am. I was not focused enough to act upon the second reversal.
OMNI was right on the direction, but wrong with the specific entry/exit points. IMO, the Bulls have (for the time being) successfully defended the FOMC breakout (from last last week) with the two higher intraday lows today. However, that in no way implies a rally of any sort, since resistance @1437 - 1439 didn't even get tested today.
UPDATE:
Dr. Brett Steenbarger dissected today's morning session in ES here. I realized a few minutes too late that when I sold at 1428.25, it was actually the time to go long. I'm still in the process of training myself to recognize the 4 TICK patterns quickly enough to act upon them.
Sunday, April 01, 2007
Another Weekend That's For HouseKeeping
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Ok, so I tried using Bracket Trader last week. Unfortunately, with Medved QT and IB both up and running, once I ran Bracket Trader, my CPU usage hit 100%. After a few seconds, things became slow, real slow with using Bracket Trader. Even trying to exit the program took a long time.
It's becoming increasingly clear that my current Pentium4 laptop does not have enough horsepower to handle my trading needs. I guess that I should take that as a sign that I should get a new computer for trading.
Babak’s stock trading blog, Trader’s Narrative, is having its first trading blog contest. He’s giving away six months of access to SentimenTrader.com: Analysis Over Emotion in the Stock and Bond Markets! To enter, all you have to do is to write about the contest. I figure I could use all the extra help I can get to improve my futures trading. Here is how you can enter this trading blog contest.
And, last but not least, thanks to the TLA advertiser, I got paid today! TLA is by far, the better ad system than stupid Google's AdSense. Yes, Google's AdSense sucks in a major way for the small-time publisher. They have my ad money hostage, and are making millions, if not billions from the poor small-Time AdSense publisher's upaid AdSense money.
I just realized I made more from my TLA ad than from my trading for all of March. I don't know whether to laugh or to cry, though I have a slightty morbid feeling that it is the latter option that I should be choosing.....
My bi-phasic sleeping experiment has not been a success so far. I've been generally sleeping in two 3hr segments at night, with a single 10-20 minute nap in the daytime. It's really hard to nap for the whole 90minutes at a time, and I'm just doing what my body is telling me to do. When I first read about it, it sound interesting and made sense. But now, I am realizing that it will take more effort to adhere to a biphasic sleeping schedule, and I'm lacking the motivation to follow the schedule.
NetVibes Me!
BlogLine This!
