Wednesday, April 11, 2007

SnP e-Mini Futures Trade

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Risk = 1pt
Profit = +4.75 pts.

Risk = 1pt
Profit = +1pt

Risk = 1.50 pt
Profit = +3.0 pts.

Risk = 1.0 pt
Profit = -0.75 pt.

Today I tried to follow the OMNI as best as I could. I exited my first trade prematurely, as the OMNI exited their short @1449. I exited because I wanted to protect my profits.
In Trade #2, I was playing the TICK extreme, and didn't realize that I had timed the bottom, until a few minutes after I exited the trade. In retrospect, it was the post 7am (PST) reversal time, it was at S2, and there was buy volume coming in, so I should have tried to resist selling just a few minutes longer just to see how it would behave, and where it would go.
In Trade #3, I saw that the ES was slowly bleeding downwards ahead of the 2pm release of the FOMC minutes. When it became clear that it would not break above 1453.50, I shorted @market, and then @market again. I screwed up my exit because I did not have a profit target in mind, plus I wanted to protect my profits. (yes, I see the common theme here !)
In Trade #4, it was a mistake, I was trying to anticipate more downwards movement that never materialized.

The good news is that I felt that I performed really well today even though I screwed up my exits. The bad news is that lately, I have followed up a good performance with a bad performance. Yesterday or today should be no different than any other day, and yet, somehow, I manage to perform inconsistently.

There's a million upon googol of things that I want to do, one of which includes getting back into equities and options day/swing trading, but none of that really matters if I cannot improve upon my patience (wait for the low risk, high probability setup to come to me), and discipline (sticking to the plan that I have prepared for each day). I need to work on my consistency more, I don't always have to take a trade, I should never ignore the homework that I did the previous night, and of course, I should trust more in my ability to perform.


Lord Tedders said...


Strive to trade a little better every day and you won't have to worry about "consistency". Remember trading well (by your rules and mechanics) is not directly related to profit. If you trade o.k. on a really good trading day you can be very profitable. If you trade perfectly on a tough trading day you can still take a small loss. Worry about making the best trades you can and don't worry about exact $P/L.

Trade #1 exit was totally premature. MACD was punching through the 0 zone and there was no Volume spike yet. What was the reason you exited?

Trade #2 personally I don't take these trades because I've been burned too many times, so I can't give you much advice.

Trade #3 was your perfect trade today. You entered and exited flawlessly. Study this trade!

Trade #4 was an error. Everyone makes an occasional error, but do you know what to do to prevent these types of future mistakes?

Hope you don't mind me reviewing your trades, but your style seems akin to mine so reviewing your trades helps me as well.


Phileo said...

Hi Tedders,

Thanks for your comments. They are helping me out as well.
In Trade #1, I saw a higher low, and price action stalling, so I got scared and just sold, ignoring my stop @1455.50.
In Trade #2, I recognize that playing the TICK extreme is not a high probability play, but I'm experimenting with this to see if I can improve the odds.
In Trade #3, the exit was not as flawless as you think. I trailed my stops too tightly, and the MA's did not signal any change in the downtrend, I should have at least been more patient to observe how much more downside there was, and use the MA's as my general guide.
In Trade #4, you're right, there was no signal to go short. To prevent this mistake, I need to at least wait for confirmation.