Wednesday, April 04, 2007

SnP e-Mini Futures Trade


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Risk = 1.0 pt
Gain = -0.25 pt.

Trade2: Risk = 1.0 pt.
Gain = -1.25 pt.

In trade1, I made the mistake of being undecided between whether to follow the OMNI, or just take my scalp while I still had the profits. The indecision cost me.

In Trade2, I simply held on for too long. I was playing a breakout, it never followed thru, my thesis for being in the trade was invalidated, I should have gotten out much earlier.

Today I felt good, and had no urge to take low probability setups, nor did I feel any urge to overtrade. Now if I can only remember this feeling, and repeat what I did today going forward !
Incidentally, the OMNI taught me a few lessons today. First one was when the OMNI moved the stop up from 1437 to 1442 after the initial attempt to break above 1450 - this implied that 1444.25 should be the LoD, and if it wasn't that's definitely where you want to bail. When it failed to break above resistance @1450, there was a good chance (and still plenty of time) to take another stab at 1450, it was just a matter of waiting for the next TICK extreme. The first -ve TICK extreme after 1450 occured just after 1030am (PST), and that never made it to the LoD, thereby confirming the original hypothesis (ie. 1444.25 was the LoD). So now that we knew our LoD, it was just a matter of finding out what our HoD would be. The next +ve TICK extreme happened just after 12pm (PST), ES never made it to 1450, that was the sign to get out of the trade and that's exactly what the OMNI did.

One other note: Today, the chart told me that being below the MA's is not a bad sign at all if a higher low has been put in.

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