Summary
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Added to my Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE: GS) position on the breakout above 140 as per plan. However, the sellers showed up later, and the broad based weakness led to Goldman Sachs selling off. I exited my full position at breakeven (140). Will probably need a couple days to determine whether there is any buy support at 136.6.
Started a 1/4 position in Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK.B) as per plan.
long 75.6, stop 73, target 80+
IBM (International Business Machines Corp., NYSE: IBM) has been acting the strongest during this OpEx selloff, along with MacDonald's. I will look to buy both names on weakness.
Another name has caught my eye, and that is American Capital Agency Corp. (NASDAQ: AGNC). This is a mortgage REIT that buys MBS's and CDO's and makes money on the interest rate spread. They pay a 21% dividend. They recently completed a secondary stock offering, which was priced at $25.75. I will monitor this stock to see if it can stay above 25.1 next Friday.
Tuesday, May 18, 2010
Trade Update, May 18, 2010
Monday, May 17, 2010
Trade Update
Goldman Sachs !!
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I only went long half of a position in Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) on the afternoon break above 140. I only took a half position because I believe there will be a re-test of the 138.5 lows. However, I recognize that I could be wrong, therefore, I needed to execute as per my previously described trade plan, but with reduced risk.
My stop is 139.5.
GS broke back above the 141.5 resistance level and even closed above that level, but is not out of the woods yet by any menas.
This week should tell us whether Goldman Sachs is trying to build a base at these levels (138-139).
As for my Visa Inc (NYSE: V) trade (bought 76.5, sold 78.9), I am glad the market offered me the opportunity to get out this morning. I timed my sell pretty near the Highs of the Day. That huge gap down indicates a big overhang of stuck longs, so there is no reason to look at swinging long Visa for the next few weeks until at least it can build a good base.
sold visa
Summary
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sold Visa Inc. (NYSE: V) at 78.9.
Thought about waiting for a last gasp exhaustion break above 79, but was too busy watching Baidu, so I bailed 78.9 good enough...
Friday, May 14, 2010
bought visa again
Summary
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bought back visa at 76.5
stop 75.65
target 81-82
hold over the weekend unless i get stopped out
exited longs
out Visa (NYSE: V) at 77, will wait for better entry on Visa to swing long
Still holding BIDU, raising sell stop to 72.5
Update:
Exited BIDU 73.35.
Currently no positions.
Was hoping for some buying strength into the close, I don't think that's going to happen.
Wait for next week to see if buyers show up.
Get Ready to Buy - Update part II
bought BIDU, and V
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In my previous post, I discussed a list of stocks that I planned to buy on a correction. One stock in my previous post has triggered, and I bought another which I did not previously discuss.
Long Visa (NYSE:V) 76.67
stop 74.5
target 81-82
Long Baidu (NASDAQ:BIDU) 72.83
stop 70
target 79
Saturday, May 10, 2008
Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited (NYSE:FFH)
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Ok, so even if you throw away the fact that I only discovered the ascending triangle pattern AFTER I had placed the trade, there's some other interesting things about that chart when I was looking at it at that time which made decide to buy it:
So, I felt that there was a high probability of a reversal at hand based on the above three technical reasons. After I bought, I was discouraged to see it drop further below my entry point. But I was encouraged to see no follow through to the initial sell-off. That was key to my decision to hold on to the trade. It also helped to not micromanage my trade, nor monitor my trade every 3 seconds. As the trading session unfolded, it became more and more apparent to me that 276 was going to be the day's bottom. I held on, and flipped it the next day, +1R profit.
Friday, May 09, 2008
Flip #2: Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited (NYSE:FFH)
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I made another flip trade, this time in Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited (USA) (NYSE: FFH). Bought yesterday (too soon) on the TSX exchange at 280.38 CAD, then flipped it today at 285 CAD.
Though it looks like I made some decent money, I was also risking a lot of money, so in terms of risk, I made less than 1R. All those traders who live and die by the religion of how much money they put at risk in a trade are overlooking one key factor. I have developed my own theory about risk, and it involves the notion that risk is not only about the size of your stop, but it is also about the probability of an event happening. If I risk 1R (where R=amount of dollars risked) on a trading pattern that has 51% success rate, then I make ((51wins - 49loss)/100) ==> 2% of 1R over time. However, if I risk 0.5R on a trading pattern with a 75% success rate, then I make 50% of 0.5R over time. So with the probabilities in my favour, I can risk less and still attain better results. And to take it one step further, if I know I have a high probability play, then I can risk more, which is what I did with my FairFax flip. I'll make another post (complete with a chart) explaining in more detail as to why I felt the FFH flip was a high probability play.
Anyways, I should post these trades in real time to make it more legit, instead of after the fact. But it is what it is.
Saturday, January 26, 2008
Trade Update on Ultra QQQ ProShares (AMEX:QLD)
Summary
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As mentioned previously, I bought Ultra QQQ ProShares (ETF) (AMEX:QLD) back on Wednesday @68.
On Friday, I sold it when it broke below 73 the second time in the afternoon session. I could have, and should have sold it when it was trading at 78 in the morning, but I didn't pull the trigger.
The main problem was that I did not have an exit strategy. I think I've got a handle on picking the right time to get into the trade, but I don't put as much time and focus into figuring when to exit the trade.
Wait the for the pop from the FOMC meeting? Fade the gap? Move stop to breakeven and let the profits fall where they may? Look for a break of trend? All of the above thoughts were floating in my head and as a result I was unable to make a decision.
Obviously for the next trade, I will have to work out an exit strategy.
Monday, October 22, 2007
Euro Trade
Summary
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I put a short in the Euro last night. With my stop in place, I reviewed what I just did to ensure that I was comfortable with and accepting of how much I was risking (that is the only way for me to sleep through the night with a futures trade in place). This morning, I woke up to find that I am still short and sitting on a nice gain.
Yes, I fluked out, and pretty much timed the top in the Euro. But now I am not sure what to do. Hold through the inevitable retrace and try to make this a real swing trade, or take my profits now ?
Regardless, I moved my stop down to 1.422 while I contemplate my options.
Tuesday, October 02, 2007
Natural Gas Trade
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This morning, I went long QGX7 @7.175, stop = 7.15, target 7.25
If all goes well, and in tonight's overnight session, NG behaves like it did in yesterday night's overnight session, then I may hold NG for another swing trade attempt. Yes, it swings around randomly and madly at times, but right now, it is behaving as expected, and that is what matters.
I've mentioned before that I am bullish on Natty Gas. I have been studying it for a few weeks now, and had made a previous swing trade on it (or at least attempted one).
So long as it behaves in an orderly fashion and according to my expectations, then I will continue to trade it. And the immediate plan is to hold it for as long as possible.
UPDATE: I am out of QGX7 @7.23. It stalled @7.245 previously, and so when it couldn't blast right through that level, I decided to exit, no questions asked.
Yeah, it's hard to hold a futures position, let alone a Natty Gas futures position, for any decent length of time.
LOL, now as I type this, Natty gas decides to blast off to new intraday highs. But that is ok since I am following my new rule - everything starts out as a scalp, and I only hold longer if the market proves me correct. I'm not interested in the market proving me wrong before proving me correct (which is what Natty Gas did here), risk control dictates that the market prove me correct first.I will look to see if there is another trading opp.
Anywyas, here is the chart recording my trade for posterity:
Tuesday, September 18, 2007
Update on my Natty Gas swing trade
Summary
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well, I woke up today to find out that I got stopped out on my Natural Gas futures position. I left my stop at 6.54, and that is where I got stopped out. Blecchhh.
I'm looking at the chart of NGV7, and it looks like the drop overnight went from 6.7 down to 6.2, which makes that drop more profitable than the long trade. But there was no way of knowing ahead of time that 6.7 would be a resistance level, because it just wasn't in the charts - not on the daily, not on the hourly.
So, while I'm not happy with the points that I left on the table, I have to accept the fact that I made the right decision to leave my stop @6.54.
Overall, if I had the opportunity to make this trade again, I would do so, so that means that I did make the right trading decisions. It was the market that decided to give me what it gave me, it is what it is.
Well, as I type this, Natty gas has jumped from 6.35 up to 6.6 in a span of 5 minutes. Looks like some crude oil shorts got real scared, and the short covering in crude is dragging Natty gas up with it. I will take another look at Natty gas tonight.
Monday, September 17, 2007
How I am Swing Trading Futures
Natural Gas is my vehicle for taking a stab at swing trading futures.
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I had been monitoring Natural Gas (NGV7) for much of last week, and when it busted out of its mini-resistance level @6.4 earlier this morning, I entered a long position on a pullback.
I went long QGV7 @6.465, and got stopped out @6.43.
So, after that I got a bit frustrated. I stepped back to take a look at what I was doing wrong. I took a look at the chart from different time frames (daily, 60min., 15min.). I think what happened was that I had the right idea to buy on a pullback, but I was using too tight a stop. Natural gas swings around wilder than a gorilla in heat.
I knew Natural Gas was going to make a move sooner or later, so I devised a plan to best prepare for that move.
First I did some research to prepare for the big trade.
Planning and Preparation
I went to the seasonalCharts website to confirm that indeed, Natural Gas is bullish during the months of September. In fact, both Natty Gas and Crude are bullish for all of September.
Then I went to check the daily chart of the Crude Oil to Natty Gas ratio. This ratio just touched the high end of its 1 year range yesterday, so there would be a bias for a reversion back down to the average ratio at around 10.
Then I went back to the daily chart to ascertain support and resistance levels. I noticed that the 50d EMA was sitting at around 6.40, but NG never made it down to that level today !
Another thing that I noticed on the daily chart was the Mirror Image Formation.
So the daily chart was looking encouraging. But what about the hourly chart?
The hourly was looking pretty sweet as well. One thing that I noticed was a double bottom @6.28 that was put in near the end of last week. That just reinforces the uptrend.
So, it is easy to see that there were actually a lot of things working in favour of an run-up in natural gas. The time of year, the daily, and the hourly were all lined up for a run-up. It broke above the 50d EMA, and had a Mirror Image Formation to back it up. I took a second look at the Natty Gas volume chart and noticed a box play formation setting up.
This was starting to look like real sweet, juicy, and compelling low hanging fruit to me. The only question was to plan out how much I was willing to risk in order to let the trade work out.
Trade Psychology
There is a bit of a mind game at work here (inside my head, that is). I have always dreamed about swing trading futures, but never had the courage to do so. Probably I was scared off by the high leverage - a couple of 10pt stop outs and your account will be hurting. And it has been a while since I have swing traded anything, let alone a futures contract. Am I scared? You bet. So that is why I had to do all this research to overcome my own fears. I had to convince myself that this is a good risk-reward scenario, and worth the risk of the wider stops that I would have to employ for swing trading. I tried to imagine getting stopped out on a 10pt stop and tried to imagine how I would feel about that loss. I had to become comfortable with the idea of losing that much money.
Trading Plan
So once I convinced myself of the opportunity, it was just a matter of waiting for a setup. The setup came with a box play pattern that was shaping up. In retrospect, it wasn't really a true box play pattern (since there wasn't at least two distinct rejections the same defined resistance level). But there was also a descending triangle pattern, which kept testing the 6.42 level. Each time, it would find buyers who pushed it back up. I then realized that I could use that level as my stop loss point. Now it was just waiting for an impulse push up. As luck would have it, my impulse push up occurred 5 or 10 min. after I had identified the 6.42 stop loss point. Everything was set, so when I saw the whoosh up, I went to market with a long position. I got a bad fill @6.47, but I did not care, since I was planning to hold this position overnite.
So, I am currently long QGV7, entry @6.47, initial stop @6.42, target = 7.0. I have since raised that stop to 6.54
Wednesday, September 12, 2007
Trade Review: ES
Summary
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Markets are slow, so I thought I would review one of the more interesting trades that I made yesterday.
Details of the trade execution are documented here.
1. Why did I take this trade?
ES gapped up, and had two opportunities to fill the gap, but instead, buyers came out of nowhere to lend support at the 1461 level. I interpret unfilled gaps as a sign of strength.
During the lunch hour dead zone, markets came down to re-test 1461, and when the sellers couldn't break below that level, then that was a sign of a possible reversal. What confirmed it for me was the pullback that reversed at around 1030a - this was a higher low. I got long @1466.5 at around 1033a.
2. What was the initial stop?
Right around the pullback reversal area, @1463. If the reversal failed, I should see it just before it dropped down to this level.
3. Why did you exit where you did?
In my homework, I had previously identified 1467-1471 as a resistance zone. When momentum stalled out just above 1472, I decided it was time book my profits.
4. Is there anything you would do differently?
Instead of waiting for it to break above previous high point @1467, I should have gotten in as soon as the pullback reversed, between 1464-1465. That would have minimized my amount at risk.
Wednesday, February 14, 2007
Post Mortem: First Solar, Inc.
Gotta burn this one into the memory banks....
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I was too steamed to realize it at the time, but now in retrospect, the execution of the entry was poor, since there was no volume to support the move to break above 33.6. Once I was in the trade though, I screwed up the placement of the stop. If you had somehow bought FSLR @33.61 and it's now just after 2pm EST on Feb 13/07, where would you have placed your stop?
Knowing what I know now about how First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) swings wildly, I think I should have set a more looser stop. It was real frustrating to have this happen to me twice in one day (the other one was ESRX). After that loss (at least psychologically it felt like one), I couldn't bring myself to buy the subsequently sweet, and orderly breakout above 33.6.
Nothing like a spanking like this to teach me what to do right for next time.....but I sure wish there was a less painful way....
Monday, February 12, 2007
Hansen Natural Corp.
I daytraded Hansen Natural Corp. (NASDAQ: HANS) today
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First trade of Hansen Natural Corp. (HANS) was a pullback setup with the bonus of a dummy bar. I was happy with how i nailed the entry. Execution of the exit was poor - I didn't work out a pre-determined price target in mind, and also lost my mental focus, and got scared out at the first sign of some big shares showing up at the ask. I even had a hunch that it was just part of the normal pullback. I got mad at myself for selling too soon and tried to scalp the pending break above 41. After that, I basically ignored for the rest of the day, even though it offered additional low-risk entries in the afternoon.
In retrospect, I should have opened two positions in HANS - one for daytrading, and the other position for an overnight swing, since HANS closed up near its HoD.
Thursday, February 08, 2007
First Solar, Inc.
Dear Trading Journal,
Please don't torment me with First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR).
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I daytraded First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) today. The setup was valid, but there was not enough buy volume. Took my loss as soon as I realized that.
MasterCard Incorporated
Dear Trading Journal,
It felt remarkably good to know that I can daytrade US Equities.
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I daytraded MasterCard Incorporated (NYSE:MA) today. First two was pullback setup - volume came in to push it above the previous bar to confirm buy signal. I exited the second trade without hesitation because I saw the momentum dying out on the tape. In the third trade, where i bought @113.79. That was not a valid setup, as I did not buy above the high of the previous bar. I redeemed myself by waiting patiently for the fourth trade. Buy volume came in off the natural number @114. I bought @114.05, target was 114.50.
I could have squeezed way more profits by daytrading the options for MasterCard Incorporated (NYSE: MA). However, I didn't have the option symbol that I wanted pre-selected and all ready to go on my watchlist. Fortune favours the prepared, will remember that for next time.
Thursday, January 18, 2007
Daytrading Forsys Metals (FSY)
The charts never lie
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1. Why did I take this trade?
Because Forsys was breaking out of a mid-morning consolidation after huge volume buying in this morning's open.
2. What was the initial stop?
Iinitial stop was at 5.93. If the breakout failed, it would be pretty obvious.
3. Why did you exit where you did?
It first stalled for a bit after breaking above 6.10. After another surge, it stalled again near 6.20. I thought that was the end of the run when it stalled for the second time.
4. Is there anything you would do differently?
Forsys Metals (FSY on the TSX) got another surge of buying volume today. In retrospect, I should have been more focused and alert to that fact. I should have been more aggressive with the number of shares purchased, since there were plenty of buyers today to provide fuel for the run-up. It looks even better on the daily chart:
If there's any follow thru buying in the next couple of days, I will definitely jump back in, and probably hold longer.
There's Always a Bull Market Somewhere
Markets are selling off, but not this guy
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I did buy Fronteer Development Group (FRG), but not in my trading account, so I won't log it in the Trading Performance. The above chart actually shows a hammer reversal pattern, followed by a nice V-shaped recovery from the selloff at the beginning of this month. FRG is breaking above the significant resistance level set back in Nov/06. Plenty of buy volume is coming in, so this should last at least another day.
A couple select (Canadian) Uranium companies are doing well today - LAM.to, FSY.to, both receiving plenty of buy volume.
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