Time to take another closer look at the market that no one knows about.....
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A lot of uranium stocks are popping up today, so it is prudent to find the more interesting plays. I actually put together the charts on the weekend, but they are all still valid, imagine that.
As mentioned yesterday, I keep track of my own custom Uranium Index, and a break above 18000 in my Uranium index would confirm a double bottom and also that the buyers are taking control.
Strateco Resources Inc. (TSE:RSC) - 
Strathmore Minerals Corp. (CVE:STM) - bought some @2.26 yesterday near the close
UEX Corporation (TSE:UEX) - bought some this morning @7.36
Uranium One, Inc. (TSE:UUU)
Paladin Energy Ltd. (TSE:PDN)
Tuesday, January 08, 2008
Uranium Chart Review
Monday, January 07, 2008
Sector Review
Broken Trends Everywhere, but there are still some good sectors to be in.
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Stopped out of HOKU @13 today for a loss of $0.5/share. Was up a dollar at one point, but I felt I needed to let the trade play itself out.
Solar sector is starting to look not so pretty.
Certainly none of them look tradeable since almost all of them put in wide ranging red candles today, with the only possible exception being ESLR. And even then, the rest of the solar sector would have to behave more rationally in order to even take a stab at ESLR. At the very least, the trendlines need to hold.
Shipping looks even worse than the solar sector:
At least with the solar stocks, the trendlines were still rising. That is not the case with the shipping stocks. They are breaking down for sure.
On the other hand, the Agribusiness sector looks healthy still:
Although many of the aggies stocks tagged their trendlines today just like in the solar sector, the big difference is in sentiment. Many of the solar stocks have doubled in 2months or less, whereas the aggies stocks are trending up more rationally, suggesting that they still have more room to run.
I actually tried to trade POT again today, but got stopped out for breakeven. Most likely a few more days of consolidation is required before a low risk entry point can be identified.
Gold sector is looking even better:
The whole gold sector should get a boost when the US Federal Reserve meets at the end of this month and lowers US Federal rates by at least 0.25 percent.
And the sleeper sector of the year:
My own custom Uranium Index is currently sitting at 16291. A close above 18000 confirms the double bottom, and that buyers are taking control, and also my signal to go long on some uranium stocks.
Stick a Fork in the Hang Seng
Summary
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Despite the misleading name, the iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (NYSE:FXI) does not track the SSEC (Shanghai Comp. Index), but actually more accurately tracks the Hang Seng Index.
So what this means is that FXI is actually a good way to play the Hang Seng, which is known to be more volatile than the S&P500 or even Nasdaq for that matter. Most of the Asian indicies have a tendency to follow the lead of the American Exchanges, meaning that most of the Asian indicies are trading in the red right now, led by the Taiwan Index with a 4% plunge that rivals the COMPQ.
Anyways, I just thought it was interesting that ProShares came out with the inverse ETF that tracks the inverse of FXI - the FXP. I will be watching that one for this coming week. Based on the current action in the Hang Seng (down over 1.2% currently), FXP will most likely gap up tomorrow (Monday) to start off the week.
Saturday, January 05, 2008
Research In Motion Limited (NASDAQ:RIMM)
Summary
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I got spanked by Research In Motion Limited (NASDAQ:RIMM) today.
I bought @113.5, had my stop @111, but today it gapped below my stop, so I had to manually sell it @108. Lost $5.5/share on that trade. 
It's getting harder to make a case for swing trading RIMM. In fact, I see more and more stocks with broken trends (FSLR, GRMN, CMG, RSTI, ISRG, etc.) which means less and less opportunities to swing trade. Probably safest just to stick with playing the Aggies for now, although uranium is starting to look interesting as well.
On the other hand, many of the inverse ETF's are starting to look very interesting:
Most of them formed very nice bases during Nov-Dec/07. Furthermore, something interesting happened on Dec. 27/07, and most of these inverse ETF's turned around. When so many markets are reversing like that in such a coordinated fashion, you have to pay attention. It's too late to buy the inverse ETF's now, but on the next pullback, I plan to be ready.
Friday, January 04, 2008
Lessons from Swinging Potash Corp. (NYSE:POT)
Summary
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I had done almost everything textbook with my swing trade in Potash Corp. (NYSE:POT).
I entered on a pullback, defined my risk, and wait for the trade to play itself out.
Unfortunately, there is the matter of the exit, and here is where I need more work. I mentioned previously that the current run-up in POT was getting a little bit long in the tooth, and the consolidation of the past few days was not enough to relieve overbought conditions.
I knew all along that I wanted to sell into strength. Well, today, that strength came. I saw price action gap up today, and then it proceeded to bounce around between 148 and 149. A 2point gap means nothing to a stock that can move up to 10pts in a day. So the more I watched the price action, the more I got the urge to just sell and be done with it.
Of course, after I sell, POT proceeds to hit my original price target of 150.
I sold too soon, but the bigger issue is that I didn't let the trade play out, as I did not let this winner run.
It may have been watching the tape too much, and reading too much into every tick. I need to practice watching the tape less often, and instead, let my stops and targets do their work.
I am done with POT for now, but will continue to watch it (along with the rest of the Aggies) for more swing trade opportunities, as there will be plenty of them for this year.
More Chart Reviews
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Kind of in danger of overtrading here, so I have to keep my watchlist down to only the best of the best low risk and high probability plays.....
I was stopped out of BPOP @9.94, for a loss of $0.11/share.
So now I have only 2 current Positions:
Research In Motion Limited (NASDAQ:RIMM) -
The reason I bought it is because I saw that my risk would be low. But this is not a high probability trade, since RIMM might still try and fill the gap.
My stop is still at 111.
Hoku Scientific, Inc. (NASDAQ:HOKU) -
Went long @13.5, initial stop was 13.
I bought this after Brian Shannon's mentioned it in his blog. Interesting to note that HOKU has supply agreements with two solar stocks, STP, and SOLF. HOKU typically reports it earnings in the third week of January, so there is still time for an earnings run-up; in fact it may have already started.
WATCHLIST:
VMware, Inc. (NYSE:VMW)
The plan for VMW is to wait for evidence that buyers are starting to take control. In retrospect, this is what I also should have done for RIMM.
MasterCard Incorporated (NYSE:MA)
Also watching PANL @21, SXC @40.
There are plenty of bullish stocks to go around. Current hot sectors are the Agricultural Chemicals, Solar, BioFuels, and most commodities. First it was $10 wheat, then $100 WTIC, then $850 Gold, and now, also Uranium is starting to "twitch":
I originally thought tomorrow would be a quiet day, but it looks like now I will have more than plenty to keep me busy.
Thursday, January 03, 2008
Trade updates
Summary
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Long MA @214.12, Sold @210.55, loss of $3.57/share.
Long POT @143.1, Sold @148.85, gain of $5.75/share.
Still holding onto BPOP, stop=9.95, target=10.9-ish.
Bought RIMM @113.5, initial stop=111, target 120.
Wednesday, January 02, 2008
Chart Reviews
Summary
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S&P500 SPDR Trust (AMEX:SPY) -
SPY got dragged down by the financials again. First, the daily view:
Today's volatility was more like an appetizer of what is in store for this month. BPSPX doesn't look too good at this stage. The follow 10day chart describes more the market structure at this point:
The eMini Futures (ES) is creeping back up in the overnight session. Will be watching XLF and my tells for more insight.
Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) -
Price action was a bit messy, but nonetheless it has to be considered bullish and relatively strong when the rest of the market was failing.
Popular, Inc. (NASDAQ:BPOP) -
BPOP was on my watchlist. I came, I saw, I bought.
The 10d and 50d EMA lines are both between 10.2 and 10.3. Failure to close above that level tomorrow and I will tighten my stop.
MasterCard Incorporated (NYSE:MA) -
Because of my indecision, "hopefully" I will not be even given the opportunity to decide whether to add to my half position in MasterCard. Target of 224 still stands.
Potash Corp. (NYSE:POT) -
The longest that POT has been in overbought conditions was for 11 sessions at most. Today was session #8. It is time to look for an exit, perhaps on the next surge of buying.
I've added RIMM, HOKU, OPTT, VMW, VIP, SKF and FXP to my watchlist.
Tuesday, January 01, 2008
Update: High Dividend Yield Stocks
Summary
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In this previous post, I looked at possible plays of some high yielding financial stocks. I really don't know anything about these stocks, other than the fact that they have a high dividend yield, and most of the charts of this group of stocks look pretty bad. I am pretty much relying on the market to tell me which one of these stocks are worth taking a closer look at.
Take a look at GLAD for instance. When it closed below 19, and couldn't break back above it the next day, brokers couldn't hit the sell button fast enough. Anyone who thinks that is just tax loss selling can be my guest at trying to time the bottom of this piece of crap.
There are some exceptions:
HBAN: if it can close above 15.5, or put in a few higher intraday lows, then there may be some hope for this stock.
CSE: Dec. 17 was the line in the sand for this stock. Any buys here should use the LoD from Dec. 17 as the stop.
CT: starting to look a bit precarious here. Buyers need to follow thru this week and retake 32. A close below 30 (esp. a bearish engulfing candle) invites a re-test of Nov. lows.
BPOP - this stock is the best of the bunch. After the lows in mid-Nov, buyers were able to take control, and price action was not messy on the way to recovery. I'm actually thinking of putting this one onto my watchlist, with a tag of the 20d EMA being the possible entry point.
A couple other high dividend yield stocks have caught my attention:
PCU - the current yield is almost 7.5%, which is pretty decent. However, it is almost impossible to hold this stock for the dividend yield without suffering through a 20% decline. That said however, the volatility also makes this a good daytrading, and even swing trading stock.
TNH - the current yield is at around 5.90%. Since the whole aggie sector is in an uptrend, that makes it easier to hold this one for the yield
So, now I have BPOP, TNH, PCU, AMZN on my watchlist. There are others, and I will discuss them as needed in upcoming posts.
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