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Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Trade Update and Market Notes

Summary

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Got stopped out of my LNN swing trade. Entered @70.4, stopped out @71.

Agribiz stocks (POT,MON,MOS,TNH,TRA, et.al) are all starting to rollover. I am leaning towards not touching them until they have found some definite support level, although TNH's 5.9% div.yield is looking interesting.

Gold stocks gapped down and closed near their lows today, so that sector has sustained a bit of technical damage and will need a week or two of basing to recover.

All the solar stocks looked like someone pushed them off a cliff.
Oil stocks are also taking a beating.

In short, almost every sector that I was looking at before for possible trade ideas are pretty much not worth looking at for the next few days.

SPY still has not closed below Aug/07 lows, so I am open to idea of a bigger bounce occurring when everyone least expects it.

One new sector that I am starting to take an interest in:
Medical Equipment & Supplies:


Also on my watchlist: VMW, FCN, RIMM, OPTT, CPHD, PANL.

3 comments:

Tom said...

Phileo,
What if the whole rally from 2002 / 2003 just unwinds with an eventual new S&P low a few years out? I don't recall such swift and broad carnage in any other correction since the year 2000. What a cruel joke it would seem... If you look at the weekly S&P at

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?c=$spx,uu[h,a]waclyyay[pf][vc60][iut]

you might next look for a very sharp rally back to the 1460 area followed by a multi-month decline back to around 1220 around a year from now. Have you any ideas on this kind of possibility or do you never think about long timeframes?

Hopefully not a contrarian indicator,

Tom

Phileo said...

Hi Tom,

I do look at the weekly timeframe, but since it it obviously does not change too quickly, I usually only look at it once per week.
The scenario you described is a distinct possiblity, I will do a full analysis on the S&P500 this weekend and report on my results.
Thanks for reading my blog!

Formerly ADD Trader said...

I have often pondered what Tom said. What if this run up for the last few years was just a "reflex" rally from the late 90's bust. Scary!

Formerly ADD Trader
http://addtrader.wordpress.com