Wednesday, January 31, 2007

Google Straddles

This is just a thought experiment, not an actual option trade that I have made, or will make.

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The premise here is that Google (GOOG) will explode for 30points up or down pending on a good or bad earnings report tonight after market close.
Google is currently sitting at 502.21

Possible Google Straddle as follows:
Buy GOPBO - GOOG Feb07 500 Calls (currently 21.01/21.20 (bid/ask))
Buy GOPNO - GOOG Feb07 500 Puts (currently 17.60/17.90)
Chart looks slightly interesting, but I don't know what to say about it, since I'm not familiar with the straddle play.

Upside Breakeven = 500 + 21.2 + 17.9 = 539.10
Downside Breakeven = 500 - 21.2 - 17.90 = 460.90
Max Loss = $3910 per straddle

These are not good odds. Probably would have been better to buy the straddle earlier, when the calls and puts were cheaper. And I've noticed that the breakeven points have moved farther out just now.
But I am curious and will check in on these options tomorrow to see how they are doing....
Also, BIDU will almost certainly move in sympathy with whatever direction GOOG takes, so BIDU should be worth watching as well.

1 comment:

Simply Options Trader said...

I also factor in IV collapse for breakeven calculation. So if IV has been pumped up, the breakeven required would be even greater than just the cost of the options.