Wednesday, December 12, 2007

S&P500 Analysis: Recession?

This market analysis will help me to figure out what to do in my retirement account.....

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Couple of observations:

  • If SPY closes below 140 for more than 2 days, then the market is telegraphing a recession.
  • The selloff post FOMC was a vicious First Thrust, which pulled back around 80%. Smells like a new down cycle has started. Failure to close above 150 will confirm. This also happens to be where my manually drawn trend line (in the daily chart) is currently sitting.
  • The 147 - 147.5 level in SPY is also the convergence of the 10, 50d EMA, and 200d SMA. A close below this level for two days or more would also confirm the new down trend.
  • SPY really needs to break above 152 in order to keep this rally alive. Unfortunately, SPY cannot rally without help from XLF, and guess what, XLF broke down today.
  • All of my tells are starting to look a bit toppy and weak here: MA, AAPL, RIMM, GOOG, GS, C, IBM. RIMM is fighting to stay above 100, and also fighting a descending triangle pattern. AAPL can't get past 196, and the gap @180 is starting to act like a magnet. The 50d EMA (and a declining one at that) has convincingly capped any rally attempt by IBM. GOOG broke below 700 again.
  • UWM, QID, DXD and SDS are building some nice bases here.

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