Thursday, October 04, 2007

Trading Results for Thursday


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Trade1: long@2.0274, stopped out @2.0264
Trade2: long@2.0256, stopped out @2.0250
Trade3: short@2.0390, stop=2.0397, exit@2.0365

Trade2 was the last trade I made before I went to bed. I was trying to hold it overnight, and (hopefully) wake up in the morning to some profits. But it was not meant to be - I had used to tight a stop.

Cable displayed a pretty textbook 7am reversal setup today. At the time of the 7am reversal, I was flipping between Natty gas, ES, NQ and the Euro, so I was unprepared for the reversal when it happened. It was a US economic report that moved the currencies today, and you pretty much had to be stalking it in advance and anticipating in order to catch the move.

There were many more trading opportunities in cable, but I did not take them, mostly due to a lack of patience.


Trade1: long@7.20, stop=7.19, exited @7.26
Trade2: long@7.32, stop=7.3, exited @7.32

Anyone who has been watching Natty Gas knows that this market is more than capable, and even more than willing to swing around wildly with no rhyme nor reason at times. Knowing how volatile it is, I approach it with lots of respect and a quick trigger finger. In trade1, I was tracking the trade with my manually drawn trendline. When it broke below my manual trendline, I decided to exit. Price action even looked like it wanted to start the cliff dive. But lo and behold, some buyers came out of nowhere to take it up beyond the previous swing high @7.33. When I saw that happen, I entered on the next pullback. But again, it was the same story - after the breakout to new highs it looked like it wanted to drop big time. I decided to move my stop to breakeven, and it was hit a few minutes later.

Of course, in hindsight, I should have held onto my first trade, and would have been rewarded with a 20cent gain. But it became a decision of risk - how much was I willing to risk? Given the reputation of Natty Gas, I just wasn't willing to risk a lot. My main criteria for it to prove me right was to NOT violate my manually drawn trendline. When it violated the manual trendline, for sure, it wasn't proving me wrong, but the more important point was that it was no longer proving me correct. But in retrospect, what I should have done was take profits on the first impulse push up to 7.33, since I am a scalper by nature. Once I was out, that would have allowed me to observe it more objectively. Every trade starts out as a scalp, gotta remember that.


All trades are shorts.
Trade1: 921.25, stopped out @922.5
Trade2: 921.25, stop=922.5, exited@918
Trade3: 913, stop@914, exited@912
Trade4: 911.25, stopped out @913.25
Trade5: 913, stop=915, exited @905

In addition to the trades highlighted in the above chart, I made some losing impulse trades last night in wheat (not shown in chart), which left me frustrated and down on myself a bit. But the market was kind today, and provided a trend day to allow me to redeem myself.

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