Market Notes, April 5, 2010

Summary

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76% of all Mondays since Jul/09 have closed above session open. 50% of the ones that didn't still closed up above previous close.

So, we have statistical evidence to look for an upside bias on Monday. For the past 2weeks, the Market has been forming an ascending triangle pattern, with the resistance line at 1176.5. Also, Thursday was an 8BNR day, indicating impending volatility expansion. Because of my modest profit targets, I think that even a false breakout could be actionable. Also, Thursday's VPOC > Wednesday's VAH(1169.5).
1.) I will be looking for evidence and confirmation to go long at 1170.5-ish or 1173-ish.

On the flip side, over 84% of all gaps since Jan/10 has been filled, so there's definitely potential for the market to at least have one sequence which attempts to fill at least half of the gap. Market accepted 1168-1169 area as value last week. I observed 7K contracts go long at 1167, which confirms 1168-1169 as value. On thursday, it tried to build value at the 1173 area.
2.) I will be looking for evidence and confirmation to go short at 1180, 1183, 1187.

The overnight session behaviour and 5IB will yield me good clues for the morning bias, and whether there is anything actionable in the first half hour.
If market response to NFP is bullish, I will be on the lookout for buyers to step in around the gap fill area 1173-ish.
If market response to NFP is bearish, I will be on the lookout for sellers to step in <= 1166.

Euro: areas to do business: 1.3475, 1.3485, 1.3515, 1.3535, 1.3565, 1.3585, 1.362