Saturday, June 06, 2009

Short term Bullish US Dollar


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Patterns repeat, and History rhymes, so chances are that USD$ will likely see a repeat of the Mar20 - Apr20/09 sequence before heading back down to test the lows.

Though it may seem redundant to look at Gold if I have already analyzed the likely scenarios for the USD$, I still thought it would be an informative exercise to see what would be the likely scenario for Gold. I think Gold needs to stay above 985 for at least a couple hours to have any chance of challenging the psychological 1K mark, and I just don't see that happening this coming week. In other words, my thesis is that the more probable scenario is a print below 944 before we see it challenge 1K.

Given that the USD$ is going to retrace up, and Gold will trend downwards (at least for the next few sessions), I see the Euro going down as well.

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