Summary
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Patterns repeat, and History rhymes, so chances are that USD$ will likely see a repeat of the Mar20 - Apr20/09 sequence before heading back down to test the lows.
Though it may seem redundant to look at Gold if I have already analyzed the likely scenarios for the USD$, I still thought it would be an informative exercise to see what would be the likely scenario for Gold. I think Gold needs to stay above 985 for at least a couple hours to have any chance of challenging the psychological 1K mark, and I just don't see that happening this coming week. In other words, my thesis is that the more probable scenario is a print below 944 before we see it challenge 1K.
Given that the USD$ is going to retrace up, and Gold will trend downwards (at least for the next few sessions), I see the Euro going down as well.
Saturday, June 06, 2009
Short term Bullish US Dollar
Wednesday, June 03, 2009
Set and Forget
Summary
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As previously mentioned, I am testing out a set and forget system for the forex futures. 7 wins and 2 losses on paper thus far, maybe a couple more days of testing to build up my confidence in the system and I should be ready to post it daily to this blog. I'm a bit excited about this one, because it: a) looks very promising b) more and more I am loving the idea of set and forget c) frees up my time to do other things (trading and non-trading related).
I have gotten into a bad habit of adding to my losing positions in recent sessions. The fact that they turned out to be winning trades is a bit of a concern from a trading process perspective, as my bad habits are being rewarded, and consequently re-inforced. The trading rule of never adding to your losers is a time tested rule, and I must work harder to follow this rule.
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