Sunday, March 01, 2009

Forex Futures gapped down!

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I brought up my platform this evening to find all of the currencies gapped down to open (with the exception of the Japanese Yen futures).
Euro gapped down below prior support @1.2625 after Merkel said that she wasn't going to support an unconditional bailout fund for the Eastern European countries. Regardless of the implications, the market responded bearishly as a result.
Anyways, I was looking for a potential spot in the Euro where the odds of a reversal might happen, but found nothing. The Euro was actually trending up this evening, but I could see that it was merely a retrace that could reverse at any moment in favour of the prevailing downtrend.

Turning my attention to the Yen, I found this chart starting to look interesting:

The Yen has been in a relentless downtrend for pretty much all of Feb/09.
However, the 1.0216 level was interesting, because that was the place of prior congestion, and also, two reversals to the upside occurred more or less in that area.
Which brings me to this:

Trade1: long@1.0222, initial stop @1.0214 exited @1.0238
Trade2: long@1.0243

In the first trade, I was playing around with my stop level, and a fat finger accidentally caused me to exit the trade. $&@#$%!!
So I went to help my wife prepare some dinner, and fed the kids to help me work off the frustration.
I came back and started watching it again. It climbed as high as 1.026 before pulling back. 1.0216 still held as the low for the evening. This fit the classic first-Thrust pullback pattern. I took the second trade when it looked like some stops were taken out to drop the price to below 1.0245.

I moved my stop to 1 tick above breakeven, and I think I will hold this trade overnight.

Like I said before, holding out for the big profits is not an easy task, a lot of things have to line up in order for this trade to work. Hopefully I will wake up tomorrow with some decent coin instead of being stopped out.

so much for that idea, stopped out @1.0252. Held it for an hour, and got only 9pts to show for that: blechhh....
Euro is trying to fill the gap, so the Yen will be range bound until we see a resolution w/ the Euro.

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