Wednesday, August 08, 2007

SnP500 Analysis

possible trading range in the works....

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There's a ton of technical reasons why the S&P500 will find it difficult to sustain a move above 1495. 1495 is a 50% retrace of the drop from 1555 down to 1435. 50d EMA is at 1501 and trending down. 1495 was a prior support level.
That said however, ES put in a triple bottom @ today's lows, which corresponds to about 1456 on the SPX. So, 1456-1460 looks like a decent support area.

Although the overall trend is down, the (very) short term trend is up, and today's Fed announcement amounted to a successful test of that mini-uptrend.

In the bullish scenario, we could see a possible run-up to fill the gap from two Thursdays ago after some further consolidation in the 1470-1480 area.
The bearish scenario would see a break below 1460 and eventually a drop to re-test the 1430-1440 area.
Average True Range for the past 5 sessions has been a crazy 31 points. Traders who base their stops on a multiple of the ATR are obviously having a lot of trouble in this current environment.

Cisco beat expectations and guided higher, so I am leaning towards the bullish scenario for tomorrow, but will prepare for either scenario.

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