Thursday, March 08, 2007

Thursday Morning Update

Looks like I was wrong about Thursday being a down day.

Read Full Post.....
All 3 futures are up - YM, ES, NQ. Gold was up in overseas trading during the night, and looks like it will open up as well. Oil is up. Looks like we are going to start the day green, but we'll see if we end the day green.

Most of those who tried to short into the close yesterday will be forced to cover. But there's still the overhang of resistance looming in the indices. Watching.....

UPDATE: (10am PST) I've copied and pasted the dummy paintbar from one of the articles in MtM.
On the 10min. chart for SU, QT gave me 3 dummy paintbars in a row. Being the naive naif that I am, I took the signal and bought @83.87 (I think it was above 71 on the NYSE). Of course, the MM's spotted this newbie from a mile away and promptly took the price down 20cents.
Fortunately it did not break below the 9bar EMA. The 5&9 bar EMA are helping me out spot the trends. Take a look at RIMM for instance. I entered RIMM when it tagged the 5bar EMA just around 9a, but got out when the 5bar EMA started to flatten out, ie, momentum starting to die off (for now).

UPDATE: (1003am PST): I've done 2 scalps of RIMM for about 5-10cents each time, and a daytrade of SU which looks like it will work in my favour. That's all the trades I've made today. Pretty boring, but I made it a point to sit on my rump roast today if I don't spot anything that is sooooooo compelling that I cannot NOT take the entry (like that 3 dummy paintbars in a row, first time I've seen that since I started using QT!).
In a more bullish environment, I would have tried to chase RIMM's opening move - an admitted higher risk play. But not today, just mostly watching, and waiting, and rambling on.......

UPDATE: (1023a)
Since I have so much time on my hands, here is the chart of the SU trade that I made:

When it subsequently dropped down to the 9bar EMA line after the break above 71 at around 930a, I got a little nervous. When it goes down, I always wonder whether the trendline would hold up. I had the sell button ready if any significant volume showed up on the break below the 9bar EMA. Nothing happened, although it continued to make me nervous by hugging the EMA line for the longest of time. Then I started writing to this trading journal, and while I did that, SU decided to comply with the trendline and went back up.
Execution of the entry could have been better, ie. I should have a buy stop placed right above the 3 dummy paintbar, then that drop down to 70.80 would not have bothered me as much.

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