Wednesday, September 20, 2006

deceptive mistake

I made just one US trade today. I was trying to play the SIMG breakout that never happened. It wasn't until after I made the entry did I realize that there were buy stops being taken out at around 13.07 - 13.09. That meant that the correct place to enter would be closer to 13.15, since if it is truly breaking out, the chart would show volume to go with the price pattern, and the buy volume would push the price up appropriately. I really like the breakout plays, and I always find that I am one step too late to catch the breakout. For example, look at SWIR today, went up 2 candles in the morning breakout before I saw it and by that time it was too late.

So, not wanting to miss out on this possible breakout in SIMG (it had traded in a narrow range between 12.6 - 13 most of last week), I bought in anticipation of the breakout. That in essence, was my mistake - I guessed and predicted, instead of WAITING for the stinkin' chart to show me what it was doing. I've made this mistake before, but I couldn't really understand why and exactly what I was doing wrong until recently.

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