Summary
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Lately, there has been quite a lot of conflicting opinions about whether the market will go down or go up. When there is this much crosscurrent of opinions, I find it best to stop reading them, and concentrate on the chart and listen to the message of the market. I did notice something interesting about today's action.
Today's action looks surprisingly similar to the hammer reversal on Feb/10. I have described some parameters which, if we are indeed putting in a bottom, I think the market will conform to.
Will look for confirmation to short 1141-43 area, and buy 1124-26 area.
Baidu Inc (NASDAQ:BAIDU) did not bounce as strongly as the rest of the leadership stocks. Therefore, it is safer to watch for signs of buying strength at the gap fill 71-71.4
Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) looks interesting, especially if the overall market is in the process of bottoming out:
If GS dips below 140 again, I plan to buy my other half position. stop on full position will then be 138. If a rally materializes in the afternoon, then I may even hold my position.
I didn't have a chance to buy Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE:BRK.B) because I was too busy scalping BIDU today for a few dimes. But now that the market is potentially trying to carve out a bottom, I will pay attention to the oracle of omaha. Plan is unchanged for BRK.B tomorrow:
1/4 position long at 76
1/4 position long at 75
1/4 position long at 74.5
1/4 position long at 74
initial stop on all 73
target 80
Monday, May 17, 2010
Deja Vu ?
Wednesday, November 04, 2009
Notes for Thurs Nov 5/09
Anything is possible so long as you trust in your ability to perform.
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Sentiment indicators ($TICK, $NYSI, $BPSPX, $NYAD) have all been trending down, suggesting bearishness creeping into the market.
Thursday, September 10, 2009
Potential Euro Short Term Top ?
Strange.....
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Yesterday, as I was watching the Euro, I started having this urge to sell it. I was looking only at the Euro chart and nothing else, and after staring at it for a while I wanted to sell it. I couldn't explain exactly why I wanted to sell it, only that I wanted to sell it. So I sold one contract @1.4565, just to test the waters. Price went against me shortly after I sold it. Strangely enough, I was reading "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" at the time, and can compare it to this excerpt from the book:
I was looking-over the quotation board, noting the changes they were mostly advances until I came to Union Pacific. I got a feeling that I ought to sell it. I can't tell you more. I just felt like selling it. I asked myself why I should feel like that, and I couldn't find any reason whatever for going short of UP.
I stared at the last price on the board until I couldn't see any figures or any board or anything else, for that matter. All I knew was that I wanted to sell Union Pacific and I couldn't find out why I wanted to. I must have looked queer, for my friend, who was standing alongside of me, suddenly nudged me and asked, "Hey, what's the matter?"
"I don't know," I answered.
"Going to sleep?" he said.
"No," I said. "I am not going to sleep. What I am going to do is to sell that stock." I had always made money following my hunches. I walked over to a table where there were some blank order pads. My friend followed me. I wrote out an order to sell a thousand Union Pacific at the market and handed it to the manager. He was smiling when I wrote it and when he took it. But when he read the order he stopped smiling and looked at me.
"Is this right?" he asked me. But I just looked at him and he rushed it over to the operator.
"What are you doing?" asked my friend.
"I'm selling it!" I told him.
"Selling what?" he yelled at me. I f he was a bull how could I be a bear? Something was wrong.
"A thousand UP," I said.
"Why?" he asked me in great excitement.
I shook my head, meaning I had no reason. But he must have thought I'd got a tip, because he took me by the arm and led me outside into the hall, where we could be out of sight and hearing of the other customers and rubbering chairwarmers.
"What did you bear?" he asked me.
He was quite excited. UP. was one of his pets and he was bullish on it because of its earnings and its prospects. But he was willing to take a bear tip on it at second hand.
"Nothing!" I said.
"You didn't?" He was skeptical and showed it plainly.
"I didn't hear a thing."
"Then why in blazes are you selling?"
"I don't know," I told him. I spoke gospel truth.
"Oh, come across, Larry," he said.
He knew it was my habit to know why I traded. I had sold a thousand shares of Union Pacific. I must have a very good reason to sell that much stock in the face of the strong market.
"I don't know," I repeated. "I just feel that something is going to happen."
"What's going to happen?"
"I don't know. I can't give you any reason. All I know is that I want to sell that stock. And I'm going to let 'em have another thousand."
I walked back into the office and gave an order to sell a second thousand. If I was right in selling the first thousand I ought to have out a little more.
"What could possibly happen?" persisted my friend, who couldn't make up his mind to follow my lead. If I'd told him that I had heard UP. was going down he'd have sold it without asking me from whom I'd heard it or why.
"What could possibly happen?" he asked again.
"A million things could happen. But I can't promise you that any of them will. I can't give you any reasons and I can't tell fortunes," I told him.
"Then you're crazy," he said. "Stark crazy, selling that stock without rhyme or reason. You don't know why you want to sell it?"
"I don't know why I want to sell it. I only know I do want to," I said. "I want to, like everything."
The urge was so strong that I sold another thousand. That was too much for my friend. He grabbed me by the arm and said, "Here! Let's get out of this place before you sell the entire capital stock." I had sold as much as I needed to satisfy my feeling, so I followed him without waiting for a report on the last two thousand shares. It was a pretty good jag of stock for me to sell even with the best of reasons. It seemed more than enough to be short of without any reason whatever, particularly when the entire market was so strong and there was nothing in sight to make anybody think of the bear side. But I remembered that on previous occasions when I had the same urge to sell and didn't do it I always had reasons to regret it.
I have told some of these stories to friends, and some of them tell me it isn't a hunch but the subconscious mind, which is the creative mind, at work. That is the mind which makes artists do things without their knowing how they came to do them. Perhaps with me it was the cumulative effect of a lot of little things individually insignificant but collectively powerful. Possibly my friend's unintelligent bullishness aroused a spirit of contradiction and I picked on UP. because it had been touted so much. I can't tell you what the cause or motive for hunches may be. All I know is that I went out of the Atlantic City branch office of Harding Brothers short three thousand Union Pacific in a rising market, and I wasn't worried a bit. I wanted to know what price they'd got for my last two thousand shares. So after luncheon we walked up to the office. I had the pleasure of seeing that the general market was strong and Union Pacific higher.
"I see your finish," said my friend. You could see he was glad he hadn't sold any.
The next day the general market went up some more and I heard nothing but cheerful remarks from my friend. But I felt sure I had done right to sell UP, and I never get impatient when I feel I am right. What's the sense? That afternoon Union Pacific stopped climbing, and toward the end of the day it began to go off. Pretty soon it got down to a point below the level of the average of my three thousand shares. I felt more positive than ever that I was on the right side, and since I felt that way I naturally had to sell some more. So, toward the close, I sold an additional two thousand shares.
There I was, short five thousand shares of UP. On a hunch. That was as much as I could sell in Harding's office with the margin I had up. It was too much stock for me to be short of, on a vacation; so I gave up the vacation and returned to New York that very night. There was no telling what might happen and I thought I'd better be John ny-on-the-spot. There I could move quickly if I had to.
The next day we got the news of the San Francisco earthquake. It was an awful disaster. But the market opened down only a couple of points. The bull forces were at work, and the public never is independently responsive to news. You see that all the time. If there is a solid bull foundation, for instance, whether or not what the papers call bull manipulation is going on at the same time, certain news items fail to have the effect they would have if the Street was bearish. It is all in the state of sentiment at the time. In this case the Street did not appraise the extent of the catastrophe because it didn't wish to. Before the day was over prices came back. I was short five thousand shares. The blow had fallen, but my stock hadn't.
My hunch was of the first water, but my bank account wasn't growing; not even on paper. The friend who had been in Atlantic City with me when I put out my short line in UP. Was glad and sad about it. He told me: "That was some hunch, kid. But, say, when the talent and the money are all on the bull side what's the use of bucking against them? They are bound to win out."
"Give them time," I said. I meant prices. I wouldn't cover because I knew the damage was enormous and the Union Pacific would be one of the worst sufferers. But it was exasperating to see the blindness of the Street.
"Give 'em time and your skin will be where all the other bear hides are stretched out in the sun, drying," he assured me.
"What would you do?" I asked him. "Buy UP. On the strength of the millions of dollars of damage suffered by the Southern Pacific and other lines? Where are the earnings for dividends going to come from after they pay for all they've lost? The best you can say is that the trouble may not be as bad as it is painted. But is that a reason for buying the stocks of the roads chiefly affected? Answer me that."
But all my friend said was: "Yes, that listens fine. But I tell you, the market doesn't agree with you. The tape doesn't lie, does it?"
"It doesn't always tell the truth on the instant," I said.
"Listen. A man was talking to Jim Fisk a little before Black Friday, giving ten good reasons why gold ought to go down for keeps. He got so encouraged by his own words that he ended by telling Fisk that he was going to sell a few million. And Jim Fisk just looked at him and said, "Go ahead! Do! Sell it short and invite me to your funeral."'
"Yes," I said; "and if that chap had sold it short, look at the killing he would have made. l Sell some UP. yourself ?"
"Not I! I'm the kind that thrives best on not rowing against wind and tide."
On the following day, when fuller reports came in, the market began to slide off, but even then not as violently as it should. Knowing that nothing under the sun could stave off a substantial break I doubled up and sold five thousand shares. Oh, by that time it was plain to most people, and my brokers were willing enough. It wasn't reckless of them or of me, not the way I sized up the market. On the day following, the market began to go for fair. There was the dickens to pay. Of course I pushed my luck for all it was worth. I doubled up again and sold ten thousand shares more. It was the only play possible.
I wasn't thinking of anything except that I was right 100 per cent right and that this was a heaven-sent opportunity. It was up to me to take advantage of it. I sold more. Did I think that with such a big line of shorts out, it wouldn't take much of a rally to wipe out my paper profits and possibly my principal? I don't know whether I thought of that or not, but if I did it didn't carry much weight with me. I wasn't plunging recklessly. I was really playing conservatively. There was nothing that anybody could do to undo the earthquake, was there? They couldn't restore the crumpled buildings overnight, free, gratis, for nothing, could they? All the money in the world couldn't help much in the next few hours, could it? I was not betting blindly. I wasn't a crazy bear. I wasn't drunk with success or thinking that because Frisco was pretty well wiped off the map the entire country was headed for the scrap heap. No, indeed! I didn't look for a panic. Well, the next day I cleaned up. I made two hundred and fifty thousand dollars. It was my biggest winnings up to that time. It was all made in a few days. The Street paid no attention to the earthquake the first day or two. They'll tell you that it was because the first dispatches were not so alarm ring, but I think it was because it took so long to change the point of view of the public toward the securities markets. Even the professional traders for the most part were slow and shortsighted. I have no explanation to give you, either scientific or childish. I am telling you what I did, and why, and what came of it. I was much less concerned with the mystery of the hunch than with the fact that I got a quarter of a million out of it.
Ok, so maybe it wasn't as extreme as what Jesse Livermore did. Later, as I was reviewing the charts of the other currencies, I found out something to confirm my bearish hunch on the Euro:
Lower highs on the Loonie:
Broadening mega-phone top pattern in the Aussie:
Potential Triple Top in Cable:
As it turns out, my hunch on the Euro was correct:
Euro made a lower high, and a sustained move below 1.4510 will confirm the short term top in Euro.
UPDATE: covered my Euro short @1.4540, on the sidelines now waiting for new opportunities
Tuesday, January 27, 2009
Got POT ?
Taking a closer look at Potash Corp. (NYSE:POT)
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The whole agribusiness sector is still looking healthy. Potash Corp. (NYSE:POT) is one boat amidst that rising tide which has caught my eye.
50d EMA is just under 77, so that is the level to watch for the next few days.
Based on the 15-min. chart (not shown here), 74 also looks to be a key support level to watch. A break above 87 would confirm the double bottom.
Sunday, June 15, 2008
Pockets of Strength: Visa and MasterCard
Time to buy Visa Inc (NYSE:V) and/or MasterCard Incorporated (NYSE:MA)
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There was a lot of technical damage done to the market in the past week, and I'm not sure that we've seen the bottom. However, despite all the carnage, I am sure that both Visa Inc (NYSE:V) and MasterCard Incorporated (NYSE:MA) are both in significant uptrends, as indicated by the blue line.
There are several reasons to buy either Visa or Mastercard this week:
1. They are both in uptrends
2. The financial sector is so beat up and pessimistically oversold that the conditions are there for a technical bounce.
3. They are both close to their respective trendlines, so the risk is not that bad.
Friday, May 09, 2008
waiting for Visa Inc (NYSE: V)
Summary
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SPY's selloff two days ago (Wednesday) seems to have been the catalyst for a change in trend in Visa Inc (NYSE: V). Right now, the path of least resistance is 82. This mild pullback also has the potential to be more than just a mild pullback. I have no clue how long this will take to play out, therefore, the best thing to do is just sit back and watch what the institutional participants are doing.
MasterCard Incorporated (NYSE: MA) seems to support my thesis on Visa with its break below 290. It will be interesting to see if, in the next week or two, whether or not Mastercard tries to fill that huge earnings gap that it left behind.
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
Update on Visa Inc. (NYSE:V)
do you have any newer info?-Oh
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I made a purchase of Visa Inc (NYSE: V) about a month ago, and since I am still holding it, I guess it's time to do an update and see where we are.
The above chart of Visa Inc. (NYSE: V) pretty much speaks for itself, and I don't have too much to say about it other than the fact that it looks pretty nice. Buyers are accumulating this stock. The stock is behaving exactly as I described. The 10d EMA average is trending up. The earnings beat delivered by MasterCard Incorporated (NYSE: MA) was equally as good for V. In fact, going forward, any analysis I do on Visa will automatically consider the state of the chart for MA as well.
Leadership was previously provided by GOOG, RIMM, and AAPL. Well, now add these two credit card giants to that privileged leadership list.
Tomorrow will be too early to buy some more NYSE:V. The above chart indicates that Apr. 17-18 was the best time to buy (stock bounced back up to alleviate oversold conditions, and broke above short term resistance). Support levels are at $72.6, and possibly at $75 as well.
I have a hunch that the fund managers are waiting for the next pullback below $75 or any test of the 10d EMA to make their next purchase, so that is where I will be making my next purchase as well. If I do make another purchase of NYSE:V, I will post the trade in (almost) real-time on jaiku.
Saturday, March 29, 2008
Visa Inc. (NYSE:V) Analysis
Summary -
- Defined resistance level in place
- possible support level exists, but is untested
- waiting for a fundamental event.
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Here is a chart of MasterCard Incorporated (NYSE:MA) just after its Initial Public Offering.
There are two things that I found somewhat interesting in the above chart:
- MA traded sideways for a couple months until a fundamental event occurred on Aug 3/06
- During this time of sideways trading, MA always stayed above the upper half of its OR (Daily Range of first day of trading).
Now compare that to Visa Inc. (NYSE:V):
While it's not a perfect match, I do see some similarities between how Visa has behaved with how MasterCard behaved the first week after its IPO:
- found resistance
- stayed above the upper range of its Opening range.
I interpret staying above the upper range of its Opening range as a good sign, as that means buyers are still acting aggressive with regards to this stock. However, in order for Visa to break above its resistance level @64.1-ish, it will require a fundamental event. An analyst upgrade from a big, well known brokerage house might do it, but what did it for MasterCard was an earnings beat.
Will Visa also report earnings that will beat expectations?
No clue. I don't even know when they will report earnings.
But for the sake of argument, let's pretend that for whatever reason, Visa was able to overcome resistance at 64.1 and ran up to $66-$67 on anticipation of a good earnings report. The earnings report disappoints expectations, and as a result, Visa drops 10% on the bad news. That would take it down to $60.
$60 also happens to be a level of possible support, so I will be watching to see how Visa behaves at around the 60-ish level (or even below), and buy if I see the rest of the herd buying.
Monday, January 28, 2008
Chart Review: Yamana Gold Inc (NYSE:AUY)
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The measured move strategy (AB=CD, where C=opening low on Jan. 22/08) suggests a price target of 19.7-ish, the round number of 20 also makes sense as price target. If Yamana Gold (NYSE:AUY) can close above 17, then 19-20 is a definite possibility. AUY has also been trending up nicely over the past 4 trading sessions, so a close below 16 would invalidate the price target and break the trend.
Saturday, January 05, 2008
Research In Motion Limited (NASDAQ:RIMM)
Summary
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I got spanked by Research In Motion Limited (NASDAQ:RIMM) today.
I bought @113.5, had my stop @111, but today it gapped below my stop, so I had to manually sell it @108. Lost $5.5/share on that trade. 
It's getting harder to make a case for swing trading RIMM. In fact, I see more and more stocks with broken trends (FSLR, GRMN, CMG, RSTI, ISRG, etc.) which means less and less opportunities to swing trade. Probably safest just to stick with playing the Aggies for now, although uranium is starting to look interesting as well.
On the other hand, many of the inverse ETF's are starting to look very interesting:
Most of them formed very nice bases during Nov-Dec/07. Furthermore, something interesting happened on Dec. 27/07, and most of these inverse ETF's turned around. When so many markets are reversing like that in such a coordinated fashion, you have to pay attention. It's too late to buy the inverse ETF's now, but on the next pullback, I plan to be ready.
Friday, January 04, 2008
More Chart Reviews
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Kind of in danger of overtrading here, so I have to keep my watchlist down to only the best of the best low risk and high probability plays.....
I was stopped out of BPOP @9.94, for a loss of $0.11/share.
So now I have only 2 current Positions:
Research In Motion Limited (NASDAQ:RIMM) -
The reason I bought it is because I saw that my risk would be low. But this is not a high probability trade, since RIMM might still try and fill the gap.
My stop is still at 111.
Hoku Scientific, Inc. (NASDAQ:HOKU) -
Went long @13.5, initial stop was 13.
I bought this after Brian Shannon's mentioned it in his blog. Interesting to note that HOKU has supply agreements with two solar stocks, STP, and SOLF. HOKU typically reports it earnings in the third week of January, so there is still time for an earnings run-up; in fact it may have already started.
WATCHLIST:
VMware, Inc. (NYSE:VMW)
The plan for VMW is to wait for evidence that buyers are starting to take control. In retrospect, this is what I also should have done for RIMM.
MasterCard Incorporated (NYSE:MA)
Also watching PANL @21, SXC @40.
There are plenty of bullish stocks to go around. Current hot sectors are the Agricultural Chemicals, Solar, BioFuels, and most commodities. First it was $10 wheat, then $100 WTIC, then $850 Gold, and now, also Uranium is starting to "twitch":
I originally thought tomorrow would be a quiet day, but it looks like now I will have more than plenty to keep me busy.
Wednesday, January 02, 2008
Chart Reviews
Summary
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S&P500 SPDR Trust (AMEX:SPY) -
SPY got dragged down by the financials again. First, the daily view:
Today's volatility was more like an appetizer of what is in store for this month. BPSPX doesn't look too good at this stage. The follow 10day chart describes more the market structure at this point:
The eMini Futures (ES) is creeping back up in the overnight session. Will be watching XLF and my tells for more insight.
Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) -
Price action was a bit messy, but nonetheless it has to be considered bullish and relatively strong when the rest of the market was failing.
Popular, Inc. (NASDAQ:BPOP) -
BPOP was on my watchlist. I came, I saw, I bought.
The 10d and 50d EMA lines are both between 10.2 and 10.3. Failure to close above that level tomorrow and I will tighten my stop.
MasterCard Incorporated (NYSE:MA) -
Because of my indecision, "hopefully" I will not be even given the opportunity to decide whether to add to my half position in MasterCard. Target of 224 still stands.
Potash Corp. (NYSE:POT) -
The longest that POT has been in overbought conditions was for 11 sessions at most. Today was session #8. It is time to look for an exit, perhaps on the next surge of buying.
I've added RIMM, HOKU, OPTT, VMW, VIP, SKF and FXP to my watchlist.
Thursday, December 13, 2007
Possible Hot Sectors for 2008
Recession or no recession, there is always a bull market somewhere.
Some more ideas for my retirement account.
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I mentioned agricultural sector in this previous post as a sector in an uptrend. I get the sense that that sector uptrend in the aggies will likely carry well into 2008.
One that has flown under the radar are the exchanges. 
Although the 6month timeframe paints a more mixed picture, something did happen around October, and now half of the exchange stocks have started to trend up.
And of course, there is the old reliable oil sector:
Swinging some of the above oil stocks during Jan-Feb sometimes works, but the higher probability play might be to wait until late spring, when everyone is gearing up for summer driving season.
Solar is still pretty hot right now, but I can't help but wonder when the party will come to a crashing end.
Wednesday, September 12, 2007
Some More Interesting Charts
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The Loonie has proven in the past that it can run for 4 consecutive days, so if it does have one more up day left in its tank, contract highs @0.97 would be the target.
Given the bullish sentiment in Crude Oil, Natural Gas looks primed to continue its run-up. Target 6.80
Gold looks ready to pull back a little. Possible downside target would be a 23.6% Fib RT @710-ish.
Sunday, September 09, 2007
Some Interesting Charts
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I mentioned previously that Gold touched new 52week highs on Friday. As further evidence of something happening in the gold sector, check out the ratio of HUI to Gold. Also, Gold in terms of every major currency is in an uptrend.
All of the major currencies (Yen, British Pound, Euro, Loonie) are in healthy uptrends. The Yen looks like one of the stronger ones.
The Loonie looks interesting because of the range bound action looks sort of like a box play patttern, with the 10d and 50d EMA trending up.
The biotech sector also seems to be picking up some bids:
And last but not least, here is one intended more for entertainment purposes, but is interesting nonetheless.
Thursday, August 09, 2007
SnP500 Analysis for Aug 9/07
"``This is an old-fashioned credit crunch,'' Chris Low, the chief economist at FTN Financial in New York, said in a report today. ``This is not a small thing. A credit crunch, when the short-term credit markets seize up, is extraordinarily serious, almost always the precursor of a significant recession.''"
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Lots of carnage in the market today as the "SubPrime Lending Crisis" continues to wreak havoc on the markets worldwide.
The chart of SPY shows some additional information not found in the chart of the SPX index, and that is the fact that the market gapped down today. There were three pieces of news which changed the perception of the markets. That gap down today was even bigger than the gap up to spark yesterday's rally. And more ominous was the fact that the S&P500 could NOT fill the gap down today, although there were initial signs that it might do so. The open gap now reinforces the resistance in the 1490 zone for the cash index.
The 50d EMA (intermediate trend) is pointing down, but the 200d SMA (long term trend) is pointing up. SPX is sandwiched in between these two trendlines, and it will be interesting to see who will blink first, the bulls or the bears.
Bearish notes:
- AAPL, GOOG, and now CSCO all tried to save the market and failed. People who bought into the post-Fed rally and the CSCO outlook are now trapped and waiting to get out.
- The Russell2000 Index rally stopped right at the stiff brick wall called the 200d MA. Anyone who has held the IWM since April 2007 is still trapped.
- The downtrend is not over yet, the bears are still in control. In fact, we never even made it to overbought conditions during this 3 day rally.
- Market is becoming increasingly sensitive to negative news.
- S&P500 eMini Futures are currently pointing towards another gap down for Friday.
- 30yr Treasury Bond Futures are starting to trend up again.
Bullish Notes:
- Today's selling was a bit overdone, which again, sets up another possible dead cat bounce.
- Market is still responsive to positive news, such as the Fed interest rate announcement and Cisco's positive outlook.
- There is still some buying support at the 200d MA.
- The BPSPX is also pointing to oversold conditions.
In the bullish scenario, the bulls will successfully defend the 200d MA (1453 for the cash index, 145.4 for SPY), but more importantly, sustain that move to close near the HoD (High of the Day). An even more bullish scenario would be a close above 1500 in the cash index.
In the bearish scenario, the bears will take the markets below the 200d MA and sustain that move for a close near the LoD's.
Wednesday, August 08, 2007
SnP500 Analysis
possible trading range in the works....
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There's a ton of technical reasons why the S&P500 will find it difficult to sustain a move above 1495. 1495 is a 50% retrace of the drop from 1555 down to 1435. 50d EMA is at 1501 and trending down. 1495 was a prior support level.
That said however, ES put in a triple bottom @ today's lows, which corresponds to about 1456 on the SPX. So, 1456-1460 looks like a decent support area.
Although the overall trend is down, the (very) short term trend is up, and today's Fed announcement amounted to a successful test of that mini-uptrend.
In the bullish scenario, we could see a possible run-up to fill the gap from two Thursdays ago after some further consolidation in the 1470-1480 area.
The bearish scenario would see a break below 1460 and eventually a drop to re-test the 1430-1440 area.
Average True Range for the past 5 sessions has been a crazy 31 points. Traders who base their stops on a multiple of the ATR are obviously having a lot of trouble in this current environment.
Cisco beat expectations and guided higher, so I am leaning towards the bullish scenario for tomorrow, but will prepare for either scenario.
Saturday, August 04, 2007
SnP500 Analysis
Get ready for another dead cat....
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Friday's selling into the close created more oversold conditions as indicated by the MACD and PVO. Unfortunately, oversold just doesn't mean that much anymore in the current market environment. Not only that, but Friday's bearish action utterly and viciously engulfed the 28pt monster rally on Wed.
The Bulls have their work cut out for them, as there is now resistance at every major level: 1450, 1460, 1470, 1480. The biggest one is at around 1490.
If the dead cat starts bouncing on Monday, then 1440 can be looked upon as support.
In the bearish scenario, the market will start probing 1420.
Thursday, May 03, 2007
SP500 analysis
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Neural Market Trends is giving away $100 to a reader who can make the closest prediction of the S&P500’s closing price for Friday May 4th, 2007.
With no overhead resistance, and the SP500 today closing near its highs, I think new ATH's are a given for tomorrow (Friday). The question of course is how high will the SP500 be above today's closing prices. Unfortunately, a lot of this will hinge on the Jobs Report set to come out tomorrow before market open. Add to that the tendency of traders to close out their positions at the end of the week, and the picture becomes more clouded.
Given all that, and how I have an affinity for round numbers, I will go with 1505 as the closing price for the $SPX tomorrow.
Tuesday, May 01, 2007
Copper Analysis
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Copper reclaimed the 360 level to preserve the uptrend. But now I think it needs to break above 370 in order to preserve the bullish sentiment. The more likely scenario would be more sideways action between resistance (369-370) and support (348 - 350).
A break below 345 would now be considered weakness.
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