Summary
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Lately, there has been quite a lot of conflicting opinions about whether the market will go down or go up. When there is this much crosscurrent of opinions, I find it best to stop reading them, and concentrate on the chart and listen to the message of the market. I did notice something interesting about today's action.
Today's action looks surprisingly similar to the hammer reversal on Feb/10. I have described some parameters which, if we are indeed putting in a bottom, I think the market will conform to.
Will look for confirmation to short 1141-43 area, and buy 1124-26 area.
Baidu Inc (NASDAQ:BAIDU) did not bounce as strongly as the rest of the leadership stocks. Therefore, it is safer to watch for signs of buying strength at the gap fill 71-71.4
Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) looks interesting, especially if the overall market is in the process of bottoming out:
If GS dips below 140 again, I plan to buy my other half position. stop on full position will then be 138. If a rally materializes in the afternoon, then I may even hold my position.
I didn't have a chance to buy Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE:BRK.B) because I was too busy scalping BIDU today for a few dimes. But now that the market is potentially trying to carve out a bottom, I will pay attention to the oracle of omaha. Plan is unchanged for BRK.B tomorrow:
1/4 position long at 76
1/4 position long at 75
1/4 position long at 74.5
1/4 position long at 74
initial stop on all 73
target 80
Monday, May 17, 2010
Deja Vu ?
Friday, May 14, 2010
exited longs
out Visa (NYSE: V) at 77, will wait for better entry on Visa to swing long
Still holding BIDU, raising sell stop to 72.5
Update:
Exited BIDU 73.35.
Currently no positions.
Was hoping for some buying strength into the close, I don't think that's going to happen.
Wait for next week to see if buyers show up.
Friday, March 13, 2009
Trade in Progress: Pullback
Summary
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Trade1: short @754.75, stopped out @756.5
Trade2: short @755.75, initial stop @757.5, still holding, moving stop down to 754.
ES acted like it was ready to rollover after it failed to test the overnight highs @758.25. First attempt at shorting it failed, but it did not change what I saw - ES still acted like it was ready to roll over. 2nd attempt worked out better.
Current support is @746.5. Next support is 735.
As I type this, ES is already making me nervous with a climb up to 752. I have to respect the buying strength, and will exit my short if it stays above 750 for longer than 30min.
Monday, April 09, 2007
Mega Uranium
I daytraded Mega Uranium, and left a lot of profits on the table, but that's ok with me.
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I sold MGA near the ATH's because it had showed signs of stalling. My laptop started slowing down after I had sold, and by the time I rebooted, and had everything up and running, MGA had run past 7.60.
What makes today's price action interesting is the buy volume that suddenly showed up right after lunch. It's as if all the mutual fund managers went for lunch, then came back and all decided to press the panic buy button at the same time.
Mega Uranium (TSX: MGA) has the potential to run-up much like how FSY and LAM did in recent weeks. I will be looking out for this tomorrow. As always, Volume is the key.
Tuesday, March 27, 2007
DayTrading Mega Uranium
I Day traded mega uranium (TSX: MGA) near the end of the day.
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6.25 was the resistance level on the daily chart for Mega Uranium (MGA). I had an alert level set @6.25, but I happened to be stalking it at the time, so I was able to see this breakout develop.
Once MGA crossed the $6.20 level, the price action started to come alive. I saw 65K shares on the ask @6.24. The bid started @6.20, then went up to 6.21, then 6.22. When the ask @6.24 went down to 45K shares, I decided to put in a limit bid @6.23. I lucked out and got filled (I was prepared to buy @market), and soon afterwards, I saw that the ask went down to 20K shares. Once all 65K was consumed, away we went. I watched the tape closely for any signs of stalling. No sign of momentum waning until I saw 50K shares on the ask @6.40. Immediately I sent my limit sell @6.39 and got filled within seconds. Again, if there was any delay, I was prepared to sell @market.
Fastest and smoothest $0.16 I've made in weeks.
Friday, March 09, 2007
Friday Morning Update
CAL, cal, Cal, Cal, Cal....
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Shorted CAL @37.91, covered @38.11
(I would like to say that CAL stole my money the first time I tried to short it, but that's not what the Highly Effective Trader would say now, would he ??)
Shorted CAL @37.89, still holding.
chart to follow shortly.
UPDATE (1130a PST):
If at first you don't succeed, try, try again. 
I was scalping ICE and SU with breakeven success until my alert on CAL went off. When the trade is executed according to plan, then you don't need to go and force any trades, or keep looking for more trades.
I feel a gap down coming on Monday morning, so I'm tempted to hold this short over the weekend. I've got about 90 minutes more to decide......
UPDATE (1215p PST):
Exited all of my CAL @37.65. I still think the markets will gap down come Monday morning, but I'm not willing to risk my hard earned profits just to see if I'm right.
Thursday, March 08, 2007
Thursday Morning Update
Looks like I was wrong about Thursday being a down day.
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All 3 futures are up - YM, ES, NQ. Gold was up in overseas trading during the night, and looks like it will open up as well. Oil is up. Looks like we are going to start the day green, but we'll see if we end the day green.
Most of those who tried to short into the close yesterday will be forced to cover. But there's still the overhang of resistance looming in the indices. Watching.....
UPDATE: (10am PST) I've copied and pasted the dummy paintbar from one of the articles in MtM.
On the 10min. chart for SU, QT gave me 3 dummy paintbars in a row. Being the naive naif that I am, I took the signal and bought @83.87 (I think it was above 71 on the NYSE). Of course, the MM's spotted this newbie from a mile away and promptly took the price down 20cents.
#$*&@!^#!!
Fortunately it did not break below the 9bar EMA. The 5&9 bar EMA are helping me out spot the trends. Take a look at RIMM for instance. I entered RIMM when it tagged the 5bar EMA just around 9a, but got out when the 5bar EMA started to flatten out, ie, momentum starting to die off (for now).
UPDATE: (1003am PST): I've done 2 scalps of RIMM for about 5-10cents each time, and a daytrade of SU which looks like it will work in my favour. That's all the trades I've made today. Pretty boring, but I made it a point to sit on my rump roast today if I don't spot anything that is sooooooo compelling that I cannot NOT take the entry (like that 3 dummy paintbars in a row, first time I've seen that since I started using QT!).
In a more bullish environment, I would have tried to chase RIMM's opening move - an admitted higher risk play. But not today, just mostly watching, and waiting, and rambling on.......
UPDATE: (1023a)
Since I have so much time on my hands, here is the chart of the SU trade that I made:
When it subsequently dropped down to the 9bar EMA line after the break above 71 at around 930a, I got a little nervous. When it goes down, I always wonder whether the trendline would hold up. I had the sell button ready if any significant volume showed up on the break below the 9bar EMA. Nothing happened, although it continued to make me nervous by hugging the EMA line for the longest of time. Then I started writing to this trading journal, and while I did that, SU decided to comply with the trendline and went back up.
Execution of the entry could have been better, ie. I should have a buy stop placed right above the 3 dummy paintbar, then that drop down to 70.80 would not have bothered me as much.
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