Overtraded, -2.5pts
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My system keeps giving out good signals, but I was not focused today, and was too late for the first 2 signals. My lack of focus also led me to miss out on the gap fill setup (long 1086.5 at 635am PST). Frustrated, I decided to take some trades outside of my system's signals, and lost.
I took my system's 4th (and 2nd to last) signal, and made back some of my losses.
Small consolation.
Showing posts with label futures. Show all posts
Showing posts with label futures. Show all posts
Wednesday, July 14, 2010
Results for Wednesday, July 14, 2010
Friday, July 09, 2010
Results for Friday Jul 9
3W, +2.5pts.
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My system gave 4 signals, and I found 2 discretionary setups.
Trade1(discretionary):
L1064.5, stop1062.5, T1=1066.5
I exited 1065.5
Trade2:
S1070.25, stop1072.25, T1=1068.25
Did not take this trade, although the correct entry was to wait for the spike right into 1071 reistance, and short there.
Trade3(discretionary):
S1068, stop1070, T1=1066
This one was a setup for a reversal of the pullback and trying to catch more downside.
As it turns out, there was no more downside, especially since right after I entered short, I got a long signal from my system, so it the correct decision to exit 1067.25
Trade4:
L1067.5, stop1065.5, T1=1069.5
passed on this trade, as it was hard to adjust to the long bias right after I had exited my short.
It actually never quite made it to its target, so probably would have gotten 1.5pts if I had actually taken it.
Trade5:
L1069.5, stop1067.5, t1=1073
This was a valid signal from my system, so I faithfully executed this according to plan. I was 1pt into the money when some ambush selling came out of nowhere, which scared me out breakeven. Had I had the courage to hold on (the pullback did not break the bullish structure of higher lows), I would have reached my target.
Trade6:
S1073.25, stop1075.25, t1=1071.25
I took this trade, as it was a fade of the tick extreme after 3pushes up. Exited too soon at 1072.5.
I traded like a timid small player today, but the most important thing was that I did not make any mistakes in execution. Trade management as always, could use more improvement. But the incremental improvement is encouraging.
Monday will be important, as I need to keep the momentum going of avoiding any mistakes, and staying out of trouble.
Thursday, July 08, 2010
Organizing my system
Just a note on how I will be organizing my system.
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I think the best way to organize my system is to post my signals onto Twitter, and the daily update and discussion/analysis of results onto this blog.
I have created a new account, @pTradeSystem to facilitate posting of my signals.
I can't guarantee that I will post every signal, but the ones I do post will be as close to real time as possible.
Results for Thursday, July 8, 2010
1W 1L, +1.25pts
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My system generated 5 signals today (1 was discretionary, outside of the system), but I only took 2 trades:
Trade1:
S1064.5 stop1066.4 T1=1062.5
I passed on this trade, as it was right near the open
Trade2:
S1067 stop1069 T1=1065
I front ran my signal, and entered short too soon at 1066, and got stopped out 1067.5
lost -1.5pts
Trade3:
S1063.25 stop1065.25, T1=1061
I executed and managed this trade much better, exited 1060.5
+2.75 pts.
At this point, I stopped taking any more signals from my system and was done for the day as I had other things to attend to.
Trade4:
L1057.75 stop1055.75, T1=1059.75
Trade5:
L1055.75, stop 1053.75, T1=1057.75
Trade6:
L1055.5, stop 1053.5, T1=1058
Still need to work on following my system better, and not try to out guess or front run the signals. But overall, an improvement over yesterday, as I was patient enough not to take any boredom trades while I waited for a signal from my system.
Key is to be patient, as it always was the key, and always will be the key.
Wednesday, July 07, 2010
results for July 7, 2010
2W, 2L, -2.5pts
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Trade1: L1028, stop1027, T1=1031
exited (too soon) at 1028.75
Trade2: S1035, stop 1037, T1=1033
passed, did not take trade
Trade3: S1039.5, stop1041.5, T1=1037.5
stopped out
This trade would have worked and target was realistic (above the 1036 support), but I needed a bigger stop because it was counter trend.
Trade4: L1038.75, stop 1036.75, T1=1041.75
did not take trade
Trade5(discretionary): L1040, stop 1038, T1=1042
exited 1041
Trade6: S1044.75, stop 1046.75, T1=1043.5
did not take trade
Trade7: S1050, stop 1052, T1=1049
did not take trade
disappointing today.
After getting stopped out, I stopped following my system. Eventually, I tried to fade the trend day, and wound up losing 2pts overall on the day.
Today's lesson is simple:
Follow the system!
Had I followed the system, I would not have lost 2pts.
Tuesday, July 06, 2010
daily summary: Mon. Jul 6, 2010
5W, 1L, +4 pts on the day.
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My new system gave me 8 signals (but I only traded 5 of them), I found 1 setup on my own, for a total of 6 trades as follows:
Trade 1:
L1029, Stop 1027, T1=1031
actually exited 1030, +1pt
Trade 2:
S1033, Stop 1035, initial T1=1031
exited 1032, +1pt
This was right on the money, but I screwed up the trade management and exited too soon (was impatient).
Trade 3:
S1036.5, Stop 1038.5, T1034.5
scratched.
I was trying to front run my short signal here, and paid for it dearly with a scratch trade. It was counter-trend again, so definitely needed to wait for the confirmation.
The signal was to short 1038, which turns out this was the HoD.
Trade 4:
L1033.5, Stop 1031.5, T1= 1035.5
stopped out 1032
lost -1.5pts
This was my own discretionary setup. Again, I entered too soon and should have been more patient in waiting first for confirmation of the reversal.
Trade 5:
L1025.5, Stop 1023.5, T1=1027.5
+1.0pt, +1.25 pts on 2nd contract
Much better waiting for the confirmation, a bit better on the trade mgmt.
Trade 6:
L1019.25, Stop 1017.25, T1=1021.25
+1.75pts, +0.25pts on 2nd contract
Good execution, good trade mgmt.
At that point, i was done for the day. My system gave me 3 more signals (L1019, S1020, L1015), but i did not take them.
So, the signals are golden. It was mainly lack of patience (entering too soon), and poor trade mgmt skills (exiting too soon) which prevented me from banking major coin today.
This is encouraging for me, I know what i need to do to improve, will try again tomorrow.
Friday, July 02, 2010
Trying out New System
trying a new approach.....
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To help address the issues in the previous post, i will be trying out a new mechanical indicator to help with my discretionary trading.
The mechanical indicator will work to supplement the discretionary trading of key Support/Resistance levels.
The purpose is to provide more discrete and rule based decision making so that I won't get frustrated at not taking valid signals.
I will post signals from this indicator for the next week into this blog, and also record the results of that signal. Then after 1 or 2 weeks, assess the result, make whatever tweaks are necessary, and then go live with this indicator.
Friday, June 04, 2010
Frustration
Hanging out at MyPivots.com these days...
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For the second day in a row, I made the right call on the direction of the markets, but was unable to capitalize.
On Thursday, I called for a probe of 1105-1106 prior to the gap fill attempt (ie. drop down to 1097). The market action transpired exactly as I had expected: Rally to 1105.25, then dropped down to 1097.25 (before it retraced and then dropped further down to 1091).
Unfortunately, I went short 1101.75, and exited too early at 1099.75
On Friday, on the break of 1079-1078, I called for a drop down to 1070. However, I was unable (or maybe I was too scared?) to find an appropriate low risk entry point to ride the drop down.
If these were one-off problems, I would not be so self-critical. But I have noticed that they are starting to become a common pattern now. Both of these missed opportunities can be traced to the same problem of a fear of losing money. But is there a deeper root cause? Am I not confident enough in my ability to perform? These are questions that I will contemplate as I reread Mark Douglas's "Trading In the Zone" and Dr. Brett's "Enhancing Trader Performance" in search of an answer that makes sense.
Thursday, April 08, 2010
Market Notes for April 9, 2010
Summary
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Bears have something to work with now, as we've had 3 consecutive lower highs. Buyers are still buying dips. I think volatility will increase tomorrow, we could see a 16-20pt day.
For ES, the afternoon session needs to stay in 1183 area, or we could get some profit taking sequences.
Euro: yesterday's trade idea wasn't touched. Let's try again:
Short from 1.3410'ish area, target 1.3350
Tuesday, April 06, 2010
Market Notes for April 7, 2010
Summary
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The market has made a good run in the past 3 or 4 days, so I will on the lookout for some profit taking sequences tomorrow. This week's weekly pivot 1170.75 hasn't been tagged either, though I'm not sure if it will be done tomorrow.
Euro: short 1.3440, target 1.3310
Monday, April 05, 2010
Market Notes, April 6, 2010
Summary
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Current uptrend is well entrenched, and shows no warning signs thus far. Being overbought is fast becoming meaningless. Ascending triangle pattern resolved to the upside. Institutional money has rotated into Gold, Oil, and retail sectors in this phase of the uptrend. Classic Market Profile "P" pattern which indicates the market is accepting higher values. The unfilled gap 1173.5 and today's morning reversal at 1175 reinforces the bullish view. Lack of volatility thus far favours higher prices for later this week. Sellers will want to test today's breakout, so a re-visit of the scene of the crime (1175) is likely.
We could also see yet another bull-trap failed breakout pattern like last week. This has actually created the pre-requisite energy for buyers to take the market to new contract hights during this latest uptrend.
Alternatively, if we see a repeat of today's morning dip, I will look to buy just below the gap fill this time. I may also try to play the gap fade if things setup properly.
Euro: 1.3435 is current resistance, but long on a volume breakout above that level targetting 1.3475
Market Notes, April 5, 2010
Summary
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76% of all Mondays since Jul/09 have closed above session open. 50% of the ones that didn't still closed up above previous close.
So, we have statistical evidence to look for an upside bias on Monday. For the past 2weeks, the Market has been forming an ascending triangle pattern, with the resistance line at 1176.5. Also, Thursday was an 8BNR day, indicating impending volatility expansion. Because of my modest profit targets, I think that even a false breakout could be actionable. Also, Thursday's VPOC > Wednesday's VAH(1169.5).
1.) I will be looking for evidence and confirmation to go long at 1170.5-ish or 1173-ish.
On the flip side, over 84% of all gaps since Jan/10 has been filled, so there's definitely potential for the market to at least have one sequence which attempts to fill at least half of the gap. Market accepted 1168-1169 area as value last week. I observed 7K contracts go long at 1167, which confirms 1168-1169 as value. On thursday, it tried to build value at the 1173 area.
2.) I will be looking for evidence and confirmation to go short at 1180, 1183, 1187.
The overnight session behaviour and 5IB will yield me good clues for the morning bias, and whether there is anything actionable in the first half hour.
If market response to NFP is bullish, I will be on the lookout for buyers to step in around the gap fill area 1173-ish.
If market response to NFP is bearish, I will be on the lookout for sellers to step in <= 1166.
Euro: areas to do business: 1.3475, 1.3485, 1.3515, 1.3535, 1.3565, 1.3585, 1.362
Wednesday, March 31, 2010
Market Notes, April 1, 2010
Summary
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Fade the range 1170 - 1162.5 unless there are signs of a breakout/breakdown at those two levels.
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
Market Notes, Mar 31, 2010
Summary
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All dips continue to be bought, and there is no follow through selling, that continues to be the theme for this month. A close below 1158 appears less likely, as price and value has been creeping up. Quarter end and month end window dressing and positioning should bring some volatility, but the daily uptrend should prevail.
Euro resistance: 1.3436, 1.348, 1.353
Monday, March 29, 2010
Market Notes for March 30, 2010
Summary
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Market response to the 7am economic event will likely set the bias for the morning session. Today's VPOC(1168.75) > yesterday's VAH(1162) therefore, there should be some upside bias at 1167. Not as confident about this number because today's value area was so compressed.
Despite the fact that this market is overbought, all signs on the charts point towards more upside still. I will watch 1171-1172 for a (real or false) breakout to new HoY. This likely means 1.5pt - 2pt target initially, because it may be a false breakout. Price action will dictate final target.
A close below 1158 is still the criteria to confirm a short term top. I will watch 1165-1164 area for a potential breakdown (spike in sell volume).
Other areas to do business: 1155.5, 1158.5, 1160.5, 1163, 1176, 1179
Euro:
Euro Futures (6EM10) consolidated between 1.35 and 1.3440, which is above the area of the past 3 days. It has appeared to absorb 1.3490 resistance. Euro left an unfilled gap at 1.3410. That is the area I will watch for going long.
Other areas to do business: 1.3435, 1.356
Sunday, March 28, 2010
Market Notes, Mar 29, 2010
Summary
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I have a short bias, however, 75% of all Mondays since Jul/09 have closed +ve. That means there are still plenty of dip buyers despite the 3 days of distribution. Avg daily range since Quad Witching OpEx day is 13.6pts. Long 1160.5 if there is an opening gap up, and short 1167 in either case.
Euro put in a double bottom at 1.328. In the absence of any news, I will be looking for range bound consolidation. Long 1.331, Short 1.347.
Thursday, March 25, 2010
Wednesday, March 24, 2010
Market Notes, Mar 25, 2010
Summary
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It's not clear whether tomorrow's opening gap will be filled or not. If my bearish scenario unfolds tomorrow, then the plan is to short either 1162 or 1159 (if it no longer becomes support), depending on price action.
Euro plan is simple, sell 1.3350, or a breakdown of 1.3280.
Tuesday, March 23, 2010
Market Notes, Mar 24, 2010
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I am suspicious of this breakout in ES, but so far, sellers have not done anything of significance, and I must go with what i see, and that is an up trend. If there is going to be a selloff tomorrow, it certainly is not the message of the above chart. There is an economic report tomorrow at 7am PST, so that may or may not provide bears with some bullets, we'll just have to wait and see.
Euro is bearish. It did not have enough strength to retrace to 1.359, which was where I was looking to short. Resistance is now at 1.3565, 1.3530, and 1.3480. If Euro is still above 1.34 tomorrow morning, I will also consider shorting a breakdown of 1.34.
Monday, March 22, 2010
Market Notes, Mar 22, 2010
Doing my Homework
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I observed correlations with Gold and Euro a few times through today's session, which indicates US dollar driven order flows.
Range and volatility has expanded for 2nd day in a row, and this is yet another sign of a potential short term topping action.
For tomorrow, I am biased to the downside, but am prepared with a plan for the upside, hence the wider range estimate. The attached chart above highlights 1149 FOMC breakout level, but Probably the key here is 1156 line in the sand. If 1156 support holds, that opens the door for a challenge of 1169-70. If 1156 support fails, then the 1149 buyers will be prone to give up on their position, ie. become sellers.
I will look to sell Euro 6EM10 resistance 1.359, 1.3625 on divergence or candle confirmation at those areas. If Euro acts strong still after rising to those levels, I will consider looking to enter on pullbacks.
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