Summary
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Fade the range 1170 - 1162.5 unless there are signs of a breakout/breakdown at those two levels.
Wednesday, March 31, 2010
Market Notes, April 1, 2010
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
Market Notes, Mar 31, 2010
Summary
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All dips continue to be bought, and there is no follow through selling, that continues to be the theme for this month. A close below 1158 appears less likely, as price and value has been creeping up. Quarter end and month end window dressing and positioning should bring some volatility, but the daily uptrend should prevail.
Euro resistance: 1.3436, 1.348, 1.353
Monday, March 29, 2010
Market Notes for March 30, 2010
Summary
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Market response to the 7am economic event will likely set the bias for the morning session. Today's VPOC(1168.75) > yesterday's VAH(1162) therefore, there should be some upside bias at 1167. Not as confident about this number because today's value area was so compressed.
Despite the fact that this market is overbought, all signs on the charts point towards more upside still. I will watch 1171-1172 for a (real or false) breakout to new HoY. This likely means 1.5pt - 2pt target initially, because it may be a false breakout. Price action will dictate final target.
A close below 1158 is still the criteria to confirm a short term top. I will watch 1165-1164 area for a potential breakdown (spike in sell volume).
Other areas to do business: 1155.5, 1158.5, 1160.5, 1163, 1176, 1179
Euro:
Euro Futures (6EM10) consolidated between 1.35 and 1.3440, which is above the area of the past 3 days. It has appeared to absorb 1.3490 resistance. Euro left an unfilled gap at 1.3410. That is the area I will watch for going long.
Other areas to do business: 1.3435, 1.356
Sunday, March 28, 2010
Market Notes, Mar 29, 2010
Summary
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I have a short bias, however, 75% of all Mondays since Jul/09 have closed +ve. That means there are still plenty of dip buyers despite the 3 days of distribution. Avg daily range since Quad Witching OpEx day is 13.6pts. Long 1160.5 if there is an opening gap up, and short 1167 in either case.
Euro put in a double bottom at 1.328. In the absence of any news, I will be looking for range bound consolidation. Long 1.331, Short 1.347.
Thursday, March 25, 2010
Wednesday, March 24, 2010
Market Notes, Mar 25, 2010
Summary
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It's not clear whether tomorrow's opening gap will be filled or not. If my bearish scenario unfolds tomorrow, then the plan is to short either 1162 or 1159 (if it no longer becomes support), depending on price action.
Euro plan is simple, sell 1.3350, or a breakdown of 1.3280.
Tuesday, March 23, 2010
Market Notes, Mar 24, 2010
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I am suspicious of this breakout in ES, but so far, sellers have not done anything of significance, and I must go with what i see, and that is an up trend. If there is going to be a selloff tomorrow, it certainly is not the message of the above chart. There is an economic report tomorrow at 7am PST, so that may or may not provide bears with some bullets, we'll just have to wait and see.
Euro is bearish. It did not have enough strength to retrace to 1.359, which was where I was looking to short. Resistance is now at 1.3565, 1.3530, and 1.3480. If Euro is still above 1.34 tomorrow morning, I will also consider shorting a breakdown of 1.34.
Monday, March 22, 2010
Market Notes, Mar 22, 2010
Doing my Homework
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I observed correlations with Gold and Euro a few times through today's session, which indicates US dollar driven order flows.
Range and volatility has expanded for 2nd day in a row, and this is yet another sign of a potential short term topping action.
For tomorrow, I am biased to the downside, but am prepared with a plan for the upside, hence the wider range estimate. The attached chart above highlights 1149 FOMC breakout level, but Probably the key here is 1156 line in the sand. If 1156 support holds, that opens the door for a challenge of 1169-70. If 1156 support fails, then the 1149 buyers will be prone to give up on their position, ie. become sellers.
I will look to sell Euro 6EM10 resistance 1.359, 1.3625 on divergence or candle confirmation at those areas. If Euro acts strong still after rising to those levels, I will consider looking to enter on pullbacks.
Sunday, March 21, 2010
Weekend Market Analysis, Mar 22, 2010
Summary
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Euro is at a bit of a crossroads, so I probably won't plan any trades in Euro until it first shows its hand. I will be watching to see how the Euro opens for possible clues.
Levels I will be watching for a tell on the market:
GE 17.9 or 18.4
AAPL 226 or 220
IBM 129 or 126.5
Saturday, March 13, 2010
Weekend Review, March 13, 2010
Summary
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SPY broke above a potential double top pattern. At this point, the market can go either way, and there are arguments for both a continued march upwards (established trend, individual leadership stocks acting well) or a market pullback (sentiment indicators $NYA50R, $BPSPX, $NYMO, $CPCE are at levels where previous market reversals have occurred).
Bullish scenario (ESM10): one of the support levels 1134, 1137.5, 1142 finds more buyers, gap up and market closes above 1152.
Bearish scenario: any move above 1148 resistance is not sustained, gap down, and closes below 1134.
Euro broke out of a volatility squeeze, indicating that 1.345 may have been the bottom. The Euro breakout, along with a favorable economic report in Friday's pre-market led to a gap up in ES.
Resistance 1.381, 1.385
Support 1.3727, 1.368, 1.363
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