Summary
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Volatility has dried up in the past few sessions, hopefully the FOMC decision tomorrow will bring back some volatility.
Range guesstimate: 1096 - 1116
I will look for confirmation to go long anywhere below 1099
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Notes for FOMC Wed Dec 16/09
Saturday, December 05, 2009
Weekend Review, Dec 5/09
"In trading, however, the person who can easily admit to being wrong is the one who walks away a winner. Besides trading, there is probably no other profession where you have to admit you’re wrong. In trading, you can’t hide your failures. The trader who tries to blame his losses on external events will never learn from his mistakes." - VICTOR SPERANDEO
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This is a SPY chart from Monday highlighting the sideways range for the past 3 weeks:
Here's what has happened since Monday Dec 1/09:
The chart can be interpreted two ways:
a) There is a complete lack of consensus amongst market participants as to market direction. Result would be more sideways consolidation
b) There are quite a lot of buyers at support still, and this is the process to make them give up control.
Sentiment has been neutral for the past couple of weeks:
Through most of the past 3 weeks of sideways consolidation, I have observed that when sellers take control, they could not follow through, but when buyers take control, they follow through. Friday's NFP selloff could be construed as follow thru from the Dubai selloff; however price is at much higher levels ever since the Dubai selloff, so the sellers have much more work to do if they want to take control.
That said, I think the odds are good for this coming week that the bottom of the range will be tested.
I will be looking for Resistance 1112
Thursday, December 03, 2009
Daily Notes for NFP Friday, Dec 4/09
Summary
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ES has been trading sideways since Nov 10/09, and above 1098 for past 3 days. There is a good chance we will test the bottom of the range, which is at 1086-1085.
Tomorrow is NFP Friday, which should produce more volatility.
Trapped longs and the tendency to book profits ahead of the weekend will put pressure on the bulls to defend support.
Resistance 1104, 1108, 1111, 1115
Support 1085, 1093
Gold broke a 4-day uptrend, and is showing cracks in the armour.
Resistance 1207.5, 1209, 1213.4, 1215.5
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