A review of my current holdings.....
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Note that every stock that I bought are within a few points of its ATH's.
DML.to: bought @15.25, updated stop @15.20
PDN.to: bought @9.28, updated stop @9.16
SVM.to: bought @21.19, updated stop@21.24
Saturday, February 24, 2007
Chart Reviews
Uranium Index, Week 6
The good secret just keeps getting better....
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The main driver of the run-up this week was the spot price of Uranium jumping up +$10/lb.
Another indicator of the strength of this sector: every component of my "proprietary" index is in the green now. The big laggard was Cameco, but this week, it pushed back into positive after being red for 5 weeks. This is the 6th consecutive week that the index closed up for the week (6 white candles in a row).
Sure, the whole sector is overbought, and nothing can go up forever, but those facts certainly have not prevented the whole sector from remaining irrational longer than you expect. There's no way I would bet on the index going down any time soon (I need to see it actually do that first), but it is starting to get a bit scary to continue to make bets that it will continue to rise.
Index Value: 26,529.74
Best Performers: LAM, UEX, EMC
Worst Performers: WNP, KRI
PerformanceWeek 6: +6.47%
Since Inception: +32.65%
Friday, February 23, 2007
Friday's Trading Results
Another frustrating end to the week.....
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I did not get enough sleep yesterday, so by the time market opened, I felt tired and in need of some rest. Unfortunately, I decided to "work" despite my body telling me to rest.
Consequently, I did not follow my usual routine of updating all of my alerts on my watchlist, and keeping myself busy (with blogging, reading, surfing, plus some researching on the side). I half-heartedly looked around for some setups, and when I could find none, I tried to trade STP and GIGM out of boredom, and of course, lost money because of that. I shorted JADE twice for +0.15 net profit, then decided not to touch it for the rest of the day, wish I could think that way with the rest of my trading (JADE short was actually my lone bright spot in today's lousy trading, will post a chart later). I had only one alert go off for the whole day, and that was CTSH @94.75. (well, EBAY @34 fired off a second alert, but by then I had decided to stop "working"). CTSH looked as tired as I was, and volume was not great, but what the heck, I took the trade anyways. Lost $0.14 on that.
I'm glad today's session is over. I need some rest and then regroup. Currently holding:
DML.to @15.25 (avg cost)
SVM.to @21.19
PDN.to @9.28
Chart review will have to wait until after I get some much needed sleep. Will need to add another rule to my list of trading rules (no boredom trading).
Thursday, February 22, 2007
Thursday's Trading Results
Uranium to the rescue
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I tried two scalps of GROW, one win and one loss, overall loss of $0.20/share.
Then I tried to play the EBAY breakout above 34, and lost $0.16 there.
After that, two of my uranium stocks that I have on my watchlist had alerts that went off. I picked them up and am currently sitting on a good profit which more than compensated for my earlier trades.
With the exception of YRI.to (AUY on AMEX), which I am still holding, I exited all of my existing positions at a profit today.
Holding:
YRI.to @16.32
DML.to @14.31
FSY.to @8.48
URE.to @5.16
Now at least I understand why all the uranium stocks in my index have been running up - they are being accumulated in preparation for the IPO of a new Uranium ETF which (I think) will trade on the TSX. I will sure miss this uranium party when it ends.
I don't think I overtraded today, as I stuck to my mini-plan which I discussed yesterday. I resisted chasing CTSH, NSIT and RTI today, and the urge to trade to alleviate boredom. Now the challenge is to do this all over again tomorrow.
Uranium ETF
A uranium ETF is being offered.
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I was wondering when this would happen. Middlefield Capital is offering the sector's first Uranium ETF.
The funny (and interesting) thing is that this ETF will also pay a yield, initially set at 5% yield. I went to SEDAR to download the full prospectus (600Kb pdf file). This prospectus also contains some good background information on the uranium sector, and history of the uranium prices.
All 5 of the major Canadian banks, plus HSBC Canada, Dundee, Canaccord will be involved in underwriting this IPO, so this sounds pretty significant. Since the prospectus was filed with SEDAR, it's implied that the Uranium Fund will trade on the TSX - sorry, Americans, you're out of luck again (unless you have some good connections to a broker working at one of the major Canadian banks!)
That could also explain why every uranium company that I have been tracking in my uranium index is running up - it's being bought up for this ETF!
Wednesday, February 21, 2007
Chart Reviews
I am reviewing my open positions....
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Will sell my GS calls on a significant break below 218.9.
Wednesday's Trading Results
Dear Trading Journal,
Please grant me the strength to keep my promises.....
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Current holdings:
GS Mar07 230 Calls @2.20 (sold my previous calls at a loss, but got sucked back in again today, yes I am a masochist).
Only one single NMX Mar07 140 Call @2.90 (the bad trades on GS calls made me fearful of taking on a normal position size).
OMG @50.95
YRI.to @16.32 (trades as AUY on the AMEX).
JADE @9.55
I've been thinking lately about why I am so prone to overtrading. My current theory is that as the trading session progresses, my ability to discern a good setup from a bad setup starts to decrease. Then add that to the potent combination of impatience, fear of missing out on some great run-ups (like GROW this afternoon) and an urge to trade something. There's a ton of ideas from the various sources that I track (my sources of stock ideas are listed in my blogroll), and it seems I want to catch every single great idea. But of course, I can't be everywhere and watch everything at once. With that in mind, it becomes easy to see why I start to lose discipline after a few hours into the trading session.
Time to regroup. I will break away from my usual routine of gathering stock ideas form my sources tonight, so there will be no new stocks to add to my watchlist (except for GROW can't miss out on that one!). I also won't be actively looking for setups during the trading session. So, I will just watch my existing positions, and whatever is already in my current watch list.
If I miss out on another JADE or DNDN type of run-up during tomorrow's session, so be it, because at this point, I feel that the need to re-learn some discipline is more important than chasing dollars. Sort of like learning to walk before I run a marathon sort of mindset.
Tuesday, February 20, 2007
Tuesday's Trading Results
Dear Trading Journal,
Please be kind enough to grant me the steadfast patience, energy, and resolve to successfully navigate this arduous and convoluted path towards consistency.
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Sold all of my uranium holdings in mid morning. In retrospect, I don't really know what the best course of action would be to preserve all the profits that I left on the table, as many of the uranium stocks that I was holding jumped up to new highs before fading. Consequently, my account equity hit also hit new intraday highs early this morning, then proceeded to drop. Loss from the intraday high was over $1200 at one point. That's a lot of money to leave on the table, which is why I've started making some notes to learn how to better manage a portfolio of stocks.
Got shaken out of my GS calls this morning as well, sold @1.65. It just goes to show that front-running doesn't always work. I'm front running OMG as well, so we'll see how that goes. So far, we're in the type of market environment which is neutral to front running. If a couple more of these don't work, then that will be my signal to stop front running.
In the afternoon, I ran into trouble with my IB account (again), as things just became very sluggish. I don't think my laptop was the issue, as I've upgraded to 1.5Gb of RAM, and I watched the CPU usage on the task manager, and it never got above 80% usage. I talked to IB support, and they suggested to log a problem ticket. Hopefully this will get resolved soon. The sluggishness could be due to too many stocks in my watchlist, as I have now added an additional page for watching certain options. Time to simplify things yet again.
Portfolio Management Notes
Some notes to myself as I learn first hand about managing a portfolio of stocks...
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Position size matters - I did not go through the normal routine of calculating position sizes for the uranium stocks that I bought yesterday. As a result, a routine sell when one of the stocks hit my stop caused a bigger loss from top than expected.
Protect the portfolio's overall value - when the portfolio hits new highs, then some form of protective stop for the whole portfolio should be considered in order to protect the profits. I know this goes against the notion of trading the charts, so I will need to investigate this in my spare time to see if I can work out some sort of compromise solution.
Perhaps if I have correct position sizes, then this might be a possible solution, or an intraday chart of the portfolio's equity value might help to decide when to sell/hold.
Keep the number of stocks to a manageable sizee - I had 9 open positions, which was probably too much to monitor and track effectively. Probably better to have only 5 or 6 open positions, then it is easier to respond to stock specific technical events (like a gap up for instance).
Learn about the different types of portfolio - there's a portfolio of unrelated stocks, and then there's a portfolio of stocks in the same sector. The second portfolio behaves differently from the first. Learn about and characterize that difference in behaviour.
Monday, February 19, 2007
Chart Review
Will be learning how to manage my "portfolio."
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OMG: stop @50.98.
JNN.v: Closed at its ATH, looking for the third white soldier. Stop@3.71
RSC.v: After consolidating for over a month on low volume, it finally broke out on Thursday. I caught it on friday, and today it printed the third white soldier. Usually this means buyers are exhausted and more consolidation occurs before the next move up. Stop @3.52.
PDN.to: Paladin gapped up yet again, so their is a risk of the gap filling, especially given the below average volume today. However, it has demonstrated in the past of leaving gaps unfilled. Stop @9.30.
URE.to does not look very strong after the morning's spike up. Given that this is the fourth consecutive white candle (on the daily chart), URE will be sold on any sign of weakness.
FSY.to: broke out of a 3 week long consolidation, this one should have another day or two of running before it gets exhausted. This one has a better chance of leaving the gap unfilled because of past history. Stop @7.40
KRI.to tagged the 20d before pushing up to new ATH's. Good sign of strength, and plenty of buy the dippers are watching this one. Stop @4.54.
SVM.to - that fade in the late afternoon does not look encouraging. Stop @19.50.
Monday's Trading Results
It was all about uranium.....
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I own:OMG @51.42
GS Mar07 230 calls @1.80
JNN.v @3.49
RSC.v @3.43
PDN.to @9.09
URE.to @4.93
FSY.to @7.44
KRI.to @4.64
SVM.to @19.21
Uranium powered my account equity to a new high today.
Some of these entries were executed poorly, so I will do a review of the charts of all my holdings tonight to identify stop loss points.
I'm holding over twice the amount of overnight positions as permitted by my Trading Rules. I will probably devote most of my attention to managing these positions tomorrow, which means it will be unlikely that I will open any new positions tomorrow - that is, unless the low risk, high probability setups are so compelling that I cannot not open a position.
How bullish is the uranium sector now? Well, Majescor Resources (MAJ.v), a microcap diamond mining company that trades on the TSX Venture, issued a press release today that mentioned the hot keyword of the year - uranium. As soon as the press release was issued, the stock shot up +17%.
Saturday, February 17, 2007
Uranium Index, Week 5
Things just got a little more serious....
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This week, the news that SXR Uranium One (TSX: SXR) announcing its intention to acquire UrAsia Energy (TSXV: UUU) really lit a fire on all of the uranium stocks (except for the helpless elephant Cameco, whose problems at Cigar Lake continue to weigh heavily on the stock). I don't quite remember all the other uranium companies running as much when Energy Metals Corp (NYSE: EMU) announced its intent to acquire High Plains Uranium. Anyways, the current rumour is that UrAsia Energy may receive a competing offer from one of the big guys like Rio or BHP, or even Cameco (to compensate for its delayed productions problems at Cigar Lake). Rumours do not need to be true for the stock to go up, so, UUU is definitely the one to watch next week.
This current running of the bulls in the Uranium sector reminds me a bit of the dot.bomb bubble days from back in 2000, or the panic run of WTIC up to $80/barrel last year. Really makes the trading very pleasant, although I am going to have to seriously consider holding these companies longer than the few days that I have been holding them. The whole uranium sector has been in a buying panic for much of this week ever since SXR's announcement of the acquisition. I've tried adding the 2 additional uranium companies (20 total now) in an attempt to decrease each component's influence on the index, but that has only served to highlight the strength of this sector even more. This is the 5th consecutive week that the index closed up for the week (5 white candles).
+24% in 5 weeks? This is probably the best portfolio/index that i have ever run, and I keep saying this, but I really need to start looking at how to take advantage of this sector run-up, since nothing this good ever lasts for that long.
Index Value: 24,917.42
Best Performers: LAM, UMN
Worst Performers: CXX, CCO
Performance:Week 4: +10.5%Since inception: +24.58%
My Review of BlogTopSites
Just another thing little annoyance to get off my chest.
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I signed up for BlogTopSites a couple months back and things were going great for the first little while. It was interesting to see the stats of traffic through their User Control Panel. It also acted as a good carrot to think of new articles so that I could climb up in the rankings.
But one day, not too long ago, things started to unravel. I think this was the time when Blogger moved out of beta. I was also playing around with the template during that time. For some unexplicable reason, my BlogTopSites account got wiped out! I have no idea why that happened, or what exact button did I press to trigger the annihilation of my account. All my traffic data was gone in the blink of an eye, that sucked. But that's ok, I'll just re-register and start the process over again. Or, at least that's what I naively thought. A few days after I re-registered, my blog would get wiped out from the User CP .... again. Hmm.... that's strange, why am I no longer able to add my blog to their system? So I thought I would try to contact them. I think I used their "contact us" page back in the beginning of January, it was a Saturday. Their contact us page said it usually takes 3 business days to respond. Well, it is now Saturday .... of the next month! They still have not responded to my initial attempt at contacting them. And I tried 3 more times to get my blog added into their system, but failed each time - the User CP would just come up blank after a couple days.
So, BlogTopSites is no longer useful to me, so I have to take out their widget. I will miss them, and the additional traffic that they would send my way. I was also annoyed at not being able to register my blog into their system, but now I've learned to move on. They are probably too successful now to care about the 1% of their customers (such as myself) that are not happy.
Friday, February 16, 2007
Friday's Trading Results
"Don't think, just do."
- Horace (65BC - 8BC)
Thankfully, the weekend is here.
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Today was a frustrating end to what had otherwise been a good week. My account equity made new highs this week, so that led me to start thinking about the portfolio stop that I was talking about yesterday. Unfortunately, thinking about preserving my account equity also led me down a frustrating path that put me on the defensive for most of the day. It also led me away from my usual routine.
I sold the GS calls for a loss @2.05, but later in the afternoon picked them back up @1.80. I think the mistake I made there was not managing my expectations for that trade. Today was options expiration day, and GS already showed that it had trouble climbing past 219, so I should not have expected it to challenge 219 so soon.
Scalped some ICE calls as it made its way towards a new HoD in the early afternoon.
For some reason, I started to scalp everything in the afternoon. A couple nickels here, and a few cents there. It became a frustrating and mentally draining process after a while.
The Uranium sector would save my sorry butt in the afternoon. Things are so bullish in this sector that even when I executed my entries poorly, I still made a profit on the trade.
I'm glad that the weekend is here. I need the couple days off to get the obsession with my account equity out of my system.
Thursday, February 15, 2007
Thursday's Trading Results
Dear Trading Journal,
Thank you for teaching me the concept of a portfolio stop today.
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Ran into another bout of overtrading today.
I was unable to resist the temptation of TZOO, and paid the price for that mistake.
With CLF, I learned that if the stock is not yet at resistance, and it is behaving sloppy, then exit no questions asked. I probably had no business being in CLF in the first place.
Picked up NMX Mar07 140 calls @1.35.
Sold GS calls, and then bought them again @2.45.
Picked up FM.to @68.21, WIN.to @7.40, LAM.to@12.79
There's trading the chart, and trading defensively to preserve your account equity. I think that trading the chart as a rule of thumb works 90% of the time, but there are certain circumstances where it must take second place to preserving account equity. In other words, having a "portfolio stop" is sometimes in conflict with the rule of trading by the chart. I came across such a circumstance today.
My trading account equity value was at its highest in the morning, and then slid down for the rest of the day. It even dropped below a key psychological "support" level, and I had to fight hard with some scalping to keep it above that support level. Some of the scalping led to bad results (like CLF and TZOO). It was really a waste of effort, as I should have sold everything this morning and just call it a day.
I think when the next time my account equity is in danger of falling below a key psychological support level, I will sell/exit EVERYTHING, no questions asked, and do a post-mortem afterwards.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
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1. Why did I take this trade?
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) dipped to an established support level @210 on Mon Feb 12/07. On Tuesday, it put in a higher intraday low @ just under 211. I sensed that the pullback was finished wanted to play the reversal back up to resistance @215. I bought GS Mar07 230 calls on the break of intraday resistance @212.50.
2. What was the initial stop?
Initial stop was at 212.10
3. Why did you exit where you did?
GS had trouble with the 217 level early this morning, so I exited my calls without hesitation.
4. Is there anything you would do differently?
No.
I did re-enter a position in GPYCF, basically a low risk play of any potential run up to 219.
Wednesday, February 14, 2007
Wednesday's Trading Results
Dear Trading Journal,
Thank you for giving me the taste of the thrill of the hunt.
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Still holding my GS Mar07 230 calls @1.40. I was sitting on a small loss on that one yesterday, but decided to stick with it, to give the trade some room to move.
I started watching some ONXX Mar07 25 Puts in the afternoon - obviously too late for any decent low risk entry, but it is now on my watchlist. Might consider the Mar07 20 Puts instead though, we'll see.
Picked up Wi-Lan (WIN.to) @7.26, TEVA @37.8 (after a small loss on the first attempt @37.54), and Laramide (LAM.to) @12.61. Tried a daytrade of PCLN @51.2 that just didn't work out, so I took my losses early, no questions asked. I did continue to watch it, but it printed a lower intraday high, and then double topped, bleechh, glad I stayed out of that one for the rest of the day.
NMX and MA both tempted me in the afternoon, but I resisted, as I wanted to take it easy.
The bulk of today's gains came from the GS options, and the trade in First Quantum (TSX:FM). Will post a chart of the GS options and TEVA once I close them out, but not sure if I'll have time to get to the other ones, we'll see.
UPDATE: I looked back at my execution log and found out that I actually bought the GS calls @1.45 and NOT 1.40.
Post Mortem: First Solar, Inc.
Gotta burn this one into the memory banks....
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I was too steamed to realize it at the time, but now in retrospect, the execution of the entry was poor, since there was no volume to support the move to break above 33.6. Once I was in the trade though, I screwed up the placement of the stop. If you had somehow bought FSLR @33.61 and it's now just after 2pm EST on Feb 13/07, where would you have placed your stop?
Knowing what I know now about how First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) swings wildly, I think I should have set a more looser stop. It was real frustrating to have this happen to me twice in one day (the other one was ESRX). After that loss (at least psychologically it felt like one), I couldn't bring myself to buy the subsequently sweet, and orderly breakout above 33.6.
Nothing like a spanking like this to teach me what to do right for next time.....but I sure wish there was a less painful way....
Wednesday Update
Thank you IB for the problem with my charts today. No, really, I sincerely mean that.
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Well, my IB charts are not working properly in the sense that they do not update in real-time. So, I have to continuously press refresh in order to see charts of my stock in real-time. This is a real hassle, because if I do not press refresh, then the lack of an update produces a gap in the chart. That makes trading pretty hard, since I have to rely on the tape now.
I suppose in one sense that is a good thing, because now my extra caution will prevent me from over-trading. I will likely be taking it easy today.
What I have found out is that it is the real-time updating of the charts that is eating up the CPU power on my laptop. Because of the current malfunction in the IB chart updating, I have noticed the fan speed on my laptop has decreased down a notch, meaning that it is not as overworked as before when I had many charts updating in real-time.
UPDATE:
My real-time charts are working once again, and what do I do? I go and take another look at FSLR, watching it race up to new ATH's without me. I'm such a masochist.....
Tuesday, February 13, 2007
Tuesday's Trading Results
Dear Trading Journal,
Deliver me from the evils of overtrading.....
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stopped out of RYAAY @97.59. Boy did that suck. My mind feels like someone crapped on it, I had to force myself to continue to watch it even after getting stopped out, in order to see if I could get back in. At least I can console myself in making the right decision to ignore HANS - down 10% for the day. I finally got a nice scalp out of RYAAY breaking above 98.
Sold all of my uranium holdings today all of them at a profit, except for UMN @5.41. I own no uranium stocks now.
FSLR and ESRX both printed almost the exact same pattern on the 5-min chart in the afternoon - dip, stop me out, then reverse and breakout. That really sucked. I was steamed from having been shaken out (because it happened to me twice, and on almost the same pattern), and basically shutdown for the day after that.
I feel like I need a punching bag.
Uranium Index, Update
Will need to drop one component, and replace it with another.....
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UrAsia Energy Limited (TSXV:UUU) received a buyout offer from SXR Uranium One (TSX: SXR). This buyout offer will most likely be accepted without any issues from the UUU shareholders. The UUU shareholders will meet in May 15, 2007 to vote on this buyout offer, and assuming that the majority votes in favour, the transaction will complete by end of May 2007.
If the merger is successful, then at that time, I will drop UUU from the Uranium Index, and replace it with one of the following candidates:
PineTree Capital (PNP.to)
PitchStone Exploration (PXP.to)
TriEx Minerals (TXM.to)
PurePoint Uranium (PTU.v)
UPDATE: Perhaps you, the reader, can vote (via leaving a comment) on which one it should be, or nominate your own candidate to replace UUU.......
Monday, February 12, 2007
The Genius That is Google
Google is profiting immensely from the Long Tail of AdSense Publishers....
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There are many AdSense Publishers that are able to derive significant ad revenue due to the huge volume of traffic on their sites. However, there are many more AdSense Publishers who do NOT derive significant ad revenue because their sites have not reached a certain level of traffic volume. If you can imagine the traffic volume as the Y-Axis, and the AdSense publishers (at each traffic volume level) as the X-Axis, you have what I call the Long Tail of AdSense Publishers:
So, you would have JohnChow.com, or TraderMike's blog near the left side of the graph, and mom 'n pop blogs near the right side of the graph. Now what's interesting is the delineating mark between the red and yellow areas of the graph. My theory is that this mark represents the threshold volume that publishers must attain before they get paid by Google. In the past, this threshold was $25, meaning, that AdSense publishers must accumulate $25 worth of traffic (via CPC, CPM, etc.) before they could get paid. However, Google has now moved that threshold more to the left, in the sense that publishers now must accumulate $100 worth of traffic before they get paid. This really screws the smalltime mom 'n Pop blogs, but is really great for Google. Why?
Well, the theory of the Long Tail applied in my context of the AdSense Publishers says that the collective sum of all traffic from all of the small time mom 'n pop blogs cumulatively outweigh the big, thick, high volume sites. It makes sense, because the number of highly profitable blogs is measured in the hundreds, while the number of small time, mom 'n pop blogs are measured in the thousands, if not millions. So, Google collects interest every day on the $99 that the mom 'n pop blogs are unable to access because they are below the threshold level as set by Google.
This interest collected is like a fee, similar to the auction fees that eBay charges. eBay recently increased their auction fees, and their revenues increased as a result. Google recently moved the threshold level from $25 to $100, how much additional interest fees will they collect as a result ?? Answer that question, and you will begin to see genius in the triumvirate (Page, Brin, Schmidt) that runs Google.
Monday's Trading Results
Pop quiz: You are stalking HANS, and an alert goes off, urgent like there's no tomorrow. What are you going to do?
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Ans: Laser focus is the path to success and effectiveness (profits come later).
I was stalking HANS, and my alert for FMCN went off. I decided to ignore that alert while I waited for the right price to fire off a bid on HANS. Bought HANS @40.28. I later found out that FMCN had a mini-breakout of its own (above 86.50), but only later do I find out that HANS was a slightly better deal, although FMCN looked pretty good. Later in the day, I got scared out of HANS at 41.12. You can't catch them all and you can't win them all, so I console myself with the thought that the market often offers second chances. Still room for improvement on the HANS trade for sure.
SVVS: I mentioned on Friday that I shorted it. Well, I covered today @45.31, then waited for it to drop below 45. Shorted @44.93, covered @44.73. SVVS would later drop some more, but I didn't care, I just wanted to get some practice in learning how to short.
Picked up some DNDN @4.57, PTT @9.64, RYYAY @97.71, PDN.to @9.07, RSC@3.02. I now own the following components of my "Proprietary" Uranium Index:
PDN, RSC, DML, FSY, UMN.
Uranium, and HANS provided the bulk of my gains for today.
Hansen Natural Corp.
I daytraded Hansen Natural Corp. (NASDAQ: HANS) today
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First trade of Hansen Natural Corp. (HANS) was a pullback setup with the bonus of a dummy bar. I was happy with how i nailed the entry. Execution of the exit was poor - I didn't work out a pre-determined price target in mind, and also lost my mental focus, and got scared out at the first sign of some big shares showing up at the ask. I even had a hunch that it was just part of the normal pullback. I got mad at myself for selling too soon and tried to scalp the pending break above 41. After that, I basically ignored for the rest of the day, even though it offered additional low-risk entries in the afternoon.
In retrospect, I should have opened two positions in HANS - one for daytrading, and the other position for an overnight swing, since HANS closed up near its HoD.
Sunday, February 11, 2007
Ideas For The Week Of February 12, 2007
Market direction is unclear at best, but I did manage find a few interesting ideas for this week. Most of them are swing trading ideas, although you're more than welcome to daytrade them if you see enough volume to justify it.
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STP -
This chart basically says all the momentum has died off, so why am I picking it as an idea for the coming week? Because it also looks like it will test support @36.50 this week, and a successful test of support could mark a buying opp. (ie. buying at support, selling at resistance).
CNQR -
There is a possible play of the pullback pattern with CNQR. Watch for volume and higher lows this week.
GIGM -
GIGM is another play of the pullback pattern.
FRG -
Gold. Uranium. 'Nuff said.
GLG -
Low volume, but it's got the Mojo.
KRY -
Too late for the initial breakout, but a couple of higher lows is the next best thing.
Saturday, February 10, 2007
Updates to the Uranium Index
I've decided to add 2 more companies to my uranium index.
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I will be adding JNR Resources (TSX Venture: JNN) and Khan Resources (TSX: KRI) to my "proprietary" Uranium index. The index will now be composed of 20 companies in total:
1. Aurora Energy Resources (AXU)
2. Cameco Corp. (CCO)
3. Crosshair Exploration & Mining (CXX)
4. Denison Mines Corp. (DML)
5. Energy Metals (EMC)
6. Forsys Metals (FSY)
7. JNR Resources (JNN)
8. Khan Resources (KRI)
9. Laramide Resources (LAM)
10. Mega Uranium (MGA)
11. Paladin Resources (PDN)
12. Strateco Resources (RSC)
13. Strathmore Minerals (STM)
14. UEX Corp. (UEX)
15. Ur-Energy (URE)
16. UrAsia Energy (UUU)
17. UraMin Inc. (UMN)
18. Uranium Participation (U)
19. Western Prospector Group (WNP)
20. SXR Uranium One (SXR)
Each component of the index will now have only 5% influence on the index (as opposed to 5.5% before). There will be another little spike up in the next chart, so ignore that if you can.
Friday, February 09, 2007
Uranium Index, Week 4
I once learned from a wise trader that there is always a bull market somewhere out there.....
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The uranium sector is probably one of the very few sectors that unite the fudamental analysis guys with the technical analysis guys. Everyone agrees that the outlook (both from a fundamentals view and a technicals view) is bullish for the uranium companies. This was the first week that there was no panic buying. However, this is now the fourth week in a row that the index closed up for the week. If you can imagine a weekly candlestick chart, you would see four consecutive white candles. I looked for any technical signs that the individual components of my index might be oversold, but could find none. Nothing begets more momentum like momentum. Pretty sweet.
In only 1 months time, my "proprietary" uranium index is starting to outperform what my retirement account has done for the past 12 months. Crikey, I'm gonna have to do something about that......
Index Value: 20,549.35
Best Performers: UUU, UMN
Worst Performers: CXX, UEX
Performance
Week 4: +2.78%
Since inception: +14.20%
Friday's Trading Results
Dear Trading Journal,
Please be kind enough to help me learn how to earn more than my broker....
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Bought MA Mar07 125 Calls @0.75 (at around 7am EST), sold for a loss @0.60. Tried to time the bottom there and got my rump roast handed to me, medium well to boot.
Then I tried buying GS Mar 230 Calls @2.80, sold for a loss @2.30. The setup on GS was probably not as good as yesterday's MA trades.
Yesterday, I ignored the market tanking, since I was focused on some winning trades with good buy volume. Today, I continued to ignore the market tanking, and got a bunch of paper cuts: went long WIN.to, NVL, IDCC, RYAAY, GES, and were stopped out of all of them for small paper cuts which added up to a lot of pain.
Finally had enough sense to think short, and tried a swing short of SVVS @45.26. Yes, I missed out on lower risk short opps @46.50, 46, 45.50 because I was too slow to adapt to market conditions, oh well.
I'm not happy with how I overtraded today, still prone to periodic bouts of overtrading. My only consolation is that without keeping my losses small, and without my Uranium holdings, today could have been much worse.
Added FSY.to @6.95. Still holding DML.to, UMN.to, and UUU.v.
Thursday, February 08, 2007
30R's of Inspirational Trading
The guy only made a measly +11R today, he must be slacking off.....
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This has to be one of the most inspirational series of trading blog posts (best read from bottom to top) that I have ever read. Ever. If after reading that, you are not motivated to trade better, then, well, I just don't know how to help you.
I'm just grateful that he's taken some of his valuable time to show us that it CAN be done.
Thursday's Trading Results
Dear Trading Journal,
It felt pretty satisfying to be back on track.....
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Patience was the key today. I waited around for a quality setup to come to me. I made one quickie scalp of ICE Mar07 155 Calls, but I resisted the urge to chase ICE after closing out that winning options trade.
When I got out of my first scalp of MA, the urge to chase the break above 113 was very compelling, but I resisted. Stick to my plan, stay the course. I kept reminding myself that stocks often give second chances. It was better to wait for the low risk second chance than to chase the high risk, after the fact breakout. Lo and behold, MA offered me not one, but two more low risk opps.
FSLR was a small loss that I was glad to take. What stupid piece of bile of a stock. Despite my hatred for this piece of junk, I recognize that FSLR is the type of stock where it is better suited to play the pullbacks instead of breakouts. Some stocks are just like that, they will breakout and fail, but the pullbacks will have a better chance of working.
Bought ICGE @11.32 for a swing play.
Still holding EXEL.
I'm also still sitting on my TSX uranium plays:
DML.to, UMN.to, and UUU.v
Based on my Uranium Index, I might have a new way to play Uranium stocks. I'll let my half baked idea bake some more and investigate to see whether it has a chance or not.
First Solar, Inc.
Dear Trading Journal,
Please don't torment me with First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR).
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I daytraded First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) today. The setup was valid, but there was not enough buy volume. Took my loss as soon as I realized that.
MasterCard Incorporated
Dear Trading Journal,
It felt remarkably good to know that I can daytrade US Equities.
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I daytraded MasterCard Incorporated (NYSE:MA) today. First two was pullback setup - volume came in to push it above the previous bar to confirm buy signal. I exited the second trade without hesitation because I saw the momentum dying out on the tape. In the third trade, where i bought @113.79. That was not a valid setup, as I did not buy above the high of the previous bar. I redeemed myself by waiting patiently for the fourth trade. Buy volume came in off the natural number @114. I bought @114.05, target was 114.50.
I could have squeezed way more profits by daytrading the options for MasterCard Incorporated (NYSE: MA). However, I didn't have the option symbol that I wanted pre-selected and all ready to go on my watchlist. Fortune favours the prepared, will remember that for next time.
Wednesday, February 07, 2007
Wednesday's Trading Results
Yesterday's Options mistakes showed up today.....
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Closed out GS Mar07 230 Calls @1.40
Closed out MA Mar07 120 Calls @2.60
The problems with both options trades was in not selling yesterday in order to cut down my losses. I should have sold both as soon as the chart told me that the trade wasn't going to work out. I was indecisive as to how to play it once I had bought it, and that indecision cost me.
Today I had 6 or 7 alerts go off, and wasn't able handle so many different charts at the same time. I passed on a few of them, but made three daytrades today (HMIN, FSLR, PCLN), and promptly sold them as soon as the chart told me that the trade wasn't working out. In retrospect, none of them had valid setups since volume did not show up, so I shouldn't have taken them in the first place. I will start investigating how to add volume into my alert criteria.
Long EXEL @10.27 this morning, holding for swing.
Wasn't at my desk and missed out on MIND @14.6, and didn't have an alert slapped onto AAPL, so I missed that one, Oh well.
Canadian Uranium trades:
Long UMN.to@4.93 (Yes, the entry sucked, and I was too late for the 4.76 entry in the early morning, but decided to take a chance anyways since there was good buy volume coming in).
Long DML.to@11.55
Sold PDN.to @8.69
Still holding UUU.v
Today I think I may have been getting away from my style, which is to hold for the swing. I have not (intentionally) daytraded US Equities ever, so what I have been looking for in the past few months was for the kind of setup that would have high probability of follow thru buying the next day. Typically it is decent buy volume, a tape which I've gotten to know a little, and a chart that I am familiar with. Today's losing daytrades had none of those qualities.
Wednesday Update
Dear Trading Journal,
Please teach my mind how to short.
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I had entered a limit sell 400 EDU @40.27 into my trading acct. EDU was sitting @40.45, and had just posted an NR7 dummy bar. EDU proceeded to break below the dummy candle to 40.26. But during that whole time, I just sat there and did not click on the mouse button to execute my order. It broke down to below 40. That would have been a nice quick scalp for me. Please Trading Journal, let me know what it feels like to think short again, because I have forgotten that mindset.
UPDATE: long EXEL @10.28 (or 10.27? either one) and still holding. Took a small nibble on HMIN @46.32 and got stopped out @46.06.
Couple of uranium companies are looking good, will wait for the setup......
Tuesday, February 06, 2007
Watching the Uranium Index
Here are some of the stocks in my "proprietary" Uranium index which I find interesting.
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Currently 2nd place in my Uranium Index, Forsys Metals (TSX:FSY) is currently in a pullback. There is some resistance at the 7.0 level, so that makes it the level to watch.
Laramide Resources (TSX: LAM) is currently in a low volatility trading range. Watch for a break above 11, or break below 10.
UraMin Inc (TSX: UMN) is sitting right at resistance and is on the verge of breaking out. Watch volume and price-action as always.
Volume has picked up for UrAsia Energy (TSXV:UUU), and 6.25 is the level to watch. I picked up some today @5.97.
The chart of Paladin Resources (TSX:PDN) is so beautiful, that I didn't want to dirty it with my annotations. It is also on the verge of new 52-wk and ATH's. Will need to see volume to continue this current run-up. Can you believe that this used to be $1 ?? I picked up some today @8.40.
Denison Mines Corp. (TSX: DML) is on the verge of putting in higher lows, finishing off the ascending triangle formation. If anyone is betting against this happening, I'd like to hear your thoughts and rationale.
Even though I have not made any significant profits from trading Strateco Resources (TSXV: RSC), I will be watching to see if buy volume shows up at the 3.0 level. The price level is almost irrelevant for this junior uranium company; it's the volume that is the key here.
I have one word for Aurora Energy Resources (TSX: AXU): 15.55 !
Tuesday's Trading Results
kind of ho-hum today.....
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Had a nice swing win on HOKU, thanks to Brian. However, I frittered away those profits when I Bought GS Mar07 230 Calls @1.85, and Bought MA Mar07 120 Calls @2.90.
Both are sitting underwater, so we'll see what happens tomorrow.
The execution of my options entries continue to be poor, I will have to take a step back and look at what I am doing wrong.
Bought PDN.to @8.40, and got back into UUU.v @5.97. I will be taking a look at some of the other companies in my uranium index tonight.
Other than that, today was a bit boring for me. There were a couple of interesting setups in CROX, and HRS, but I was a bit trigger shy after buying the options and then watching it drop.
Oh, I almost forgot, I closed out my Wi-LAN trade, you can get all the gory details at MoveTheMarkets.
Monday, February 05, 2007
Top 10 Posts of Phileo's Picture Windows
This post is intended to serve as a collection of articles from my Trading Journal that I believe will benefit you the most from reading them.
Just so you know, I will be updating this top10 list from time to time - some newer articles may deserve more attention, and some older articles may no longer need all that attention.
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1. Cataloging the High Probability Chart Patterns -
The intention here was to provide not just one single post, but a whole catalog of all the high probability chart patterns. There are other posts in the series which identify the other high probability chart patterns that I've found useful enough to trade off of. However, everyone seems to like the original post which kicked of the whole series the most.
2. The 8 Habits of the Highly Effective Trader -
I wrote this article to help identify the behaviour patterns that are keys to not success, but EFFECTIVENESS. The keys to success and the keys to effectiveness are interdependent, but my rationale is that working on the keys to effectiveness is more realistic and leads to success in trading.
3. Elements of A Good Swing -
I wrote this article to help give me the framework for further refining my swing trading. I feel that swing trading is an important part of my trading, so I have also included a whole series on it. This article actually forms a big part of my trading routine as well.
4. Personality Goes a Long Way -
Your personality and temperament affects your trading more than you think. I talk about that in this article.
5. How to Catch the Next STEM -
In this article, I talk about how to catch a winning swing trade.
6. Trading is Like the Grouse Grind -
In this article, I discuss the mental aspects of trading, and what makes it so challenging.
7. More Words To Trade By -
This article is a collection of trading quotes that I have found encouraging and/or inspiring. It also serves as a signpost for me.
8. When Forrest Gump Met Dummy -
This article talks about my approach to trading options, mostly based on the KISS principle. Someone mentioned to me that it looks like I am trading options as a proxy for the stock. That assessment is not incorrect. I have started to investigate the more advanced options plays like straddles and spreads.
9. My Biggest Trading Weakness -
In this article, I openly and honestly discuss what I think is my biggest weakness in trading, and what I am doing to address this problem.
10. Dave Landry vs. Phantom of the Pits -
In this article, I discuss two very contrasting styles of trading. They seem to be in direct conflict with each other, but once you think about it some more, there is no conflict. I have been incorporating elements of both styles of trading into my own style.
Monday's Trading Results
Waiting is a good thing. Difficult, but good.
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Today, I was laying low and not very active (at least I perceived myself to be not very active) while I waited for my account to be fully funded.
Rambust I already talked about. There were some others that ran up today which I was watching - GROW, CTRP, and HRS. All three of these stocks illustrate the pain of chasing run-ups.
I hate missing out on a run-up.
I hate chasing run-ups.
But I am learning to hate the pain of being a bagholder above all else. Therefore, I did not chase today, and tried to keep busy with other things. All that hate is building up a bunch of negative energy inside me as well, so I will need to work on ways to channel more positive energy into my mind. A friend of mine keeps bugging me to buy a ping pong table so that I can challenge him to a game. We'll see.
Bought HOKU @5.35 in the afternoon.
Bought SIRF @30.57 in the afternoon.
Bought Wi-Lan (Win.to) @6.32 in the morning, and @6.43 in the afternoon. Will post Wi-Lan chart for sure when it is closed (there was an interesting first-thrust and pullback intraday today), the others I will post as time permits.
Still holding onto ACN, OMRI, and RSC.v. Most of today's gains came from the NMX options trade, SIRF, and Wi-Lan (WIN.to).
Options Trade: Nymex Holdings, Inc. (NMX)
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1. Why did I take this trade?
It was going up, and I was itching for an options trade. I bought Nymex Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: NMX) Mar07 140 Calls when I saw some big blocks come in at the bid. Probably not the best reasons, in retrospect.
2. What was the initial stop?
The initial stop was 128. It was briefly hit soon after I bought, but soon went back up.
3. Why did you exit where you did?
This morning, ICE was looking pretty bullish, and I felt that NMX would ride on ICE's coattails. I wanted to sell into strength, and no longer cared if I left additional profits on the table, as I was more focused on not making any more mistakes on this trade. I put in a limit sell of 2.30, and was pleasantly surprised to find out that someone took my offer about 15min. later.
4. Is there anything you would do differently?
Yes.
The entry was poorly executed and could have costed me a lot. I basically bought at the ask. The bid/ask at the time was 1.50/2.00. I screwed myself on the entry by buying at the ask. From now on, I will walk up the bid in order to get a better entry or look for options with smaller spread. By that I mean I will start at some discretionary price higher than the best bid, and start incrementing my bid until it gets taken out. I did this before with GROW and got a good entry.
In any other set of circumstances, I would not consider this a screwUp. But, in light of my new set of circumstances, I need to consider this a screwup so that I will push myself to improve and cut down on my mental errors.
ScrewUps are more memorable than victories anyways.
Lesson of the Day on Rambus
There are categories and degrees of pain.
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I was watching Rambus (RMBS) start at around 19.30, and then jump up to 21 in literally seconds. There was no chance to catch it at 20, but even the illusion of being able to do so was painful for me to know. It hurts when I think I could have participated in a $2/share gain !!
But had I bought at that time, I would most likely be filled @23 or close to it (remember, the bid/ask was jumping very wildly at the time, so you don't have a clue where you're going to be filled). RMBS proceeded to deflate from 23, implying that I would have been in bagholder city had I gave into the urge to chase the run-up. BagHolder city is a very painful place, more painful than any other place that I have visited. You really don't want to go to that place.
Luckily, I had enough sense to ask the good guys at HCPG to knock some sense into me. They convinced me not to buy, so I did not lose money on this trade - because there was no trade. Having the sense to avoid a greater degree of pain is a victory in my books.
Sunday, February 04, 2007
Ideas For The Week Of February 5, 2007
At the very least I can say the idea for MPEL came from TradingGoddess, not sure where the other ideas came from.....
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If the MPEL buyers show up @19.1, you can bet that they will head for the exits @21.5
It looks like it is too late to join the ZICA party (there was a great dummy entry this past Thurs), although breaking above 2.60 could change that opinion in a hurry.
Zoll closed above the 20d on Friday. It has the makings of a great pullback pattern. Any close above 66 with decent volume confirms, although there are potential opportunities to front run the 66 number, depending on volume and price-action.
Friday, February 02, 2007
Uranium Index, Week 3
I just ***love*** to pound the table about this silently raging bull market....
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The above chart says more than I ever could about the current Uranium market. This week, the buyers chose Thursday as the day to do their panic buying. This is the third week in a row that this has occurred - all the significant buying concentrated into one day. The rest of the time index has started creeping upwards.
I am beginning to regret not buying the components of this index with my own real money.
Index Value: 19,993.69
Best Performers: LAM, STM
Worst Performers: CXX, UEX
Performance
Week 3: +2.27%
Since inception: +11.08%
Friday's Trading Results
bleecccchhhh......
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Well, since I haven't taken any options trades for a 2 whole days (it actually seemed longer), my fingers were just itching to cause me to make a mistake. Either that, or GOOG really did intend to punish me for slaggin' Blogger. Whatever.
My routine to prepare for an options trade is somewhat similar to my routine for preparing for a regular trade. With the GOOG options trade, guess what? I didn't have an alert level worked out prior, I didn't look at the 5-day chart, I didn't study the chart of the options that I was interested in trading. Net Result? Here, you may as well take 2 $100 bills from my pocket.
I closed out the following stocks:
HANS @38.98, TSRA @42.66, CYTR @2.80, SVM.to @17.90, UUU.v @5.96
I bought the following:
NMX Mar07 140 Calls @2.0 (stupid mistake on the entry which just happened to not cost me).
GOOG Mar07 550 Calls @1.95 (sold a few minutes later @1.55).
OMRI @36.11
Still holding onto RSC.v, and ACN.
I resorted to scalping RIMM in a weak attempt to recover some of my losses in the GOOG options day trade.
As mentioned in my prior post, the GOOG options trade accounted for over half of my losses today. The remaining losses were just from selling below yesterday's closing prices.
Just not a nice day in general. Staying smart is not too easy for me. I continually need to fight off these bad habits that keep re-surfacing. I thought I was making tangible improvment in the patience department, but today's rush to get back into options told me I still have a long way to go.
Options Trade: Google
I got spanked by GOOG today for slaggin' Blogger.....
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1. Why did I take this trade?
Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) showed signs of recovering from the opening pullback. I bought GOOG Mar07 550 calls (GOPCY) when it broke above the close of the second candle.
2. What was the initial stop?
The initial stop was the low of the 2nd candle.
3. Why did you exit where you did?
I got the alert when GOOG dropped below 481.50, and I got filled @1.55.
4. Is there anything you would do differently?
Yes, the position size was too big and this was not a high probability trade. I should have waited for more confirmation that GOOG would go back up (since it had just sold off hard yesterday). But more importantly, I should have taken a smaller position size on this higher risk play. The loss on this option trade accounted for over half of today's losses.
Thursday, February 01, 2007
Google Straddles - Update
How did the GOOG straddles from yesterday do?
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GOOG closed @481.75 today, which was still about $20 away from the downside breakeven of 460.90.
GOPBO closed today @5.20 (originally 21.20)
GOPNO closed today @22.10 (originally 17.90)
So you would be down $17 on the calls, but up $4.2 on the puts, for an overall loss of $12.8, or $1280.
While I'm not absolutely certain, it seems to me that buying straddles does not seem to be a low risk play.
Trader ZBS
Guess who's back in town?
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Before the era of PinoyTrader, we had Trader ZBS, the guy who regularly put together a string of 3 consecutive days of +$1000 profit (something that required most of Jan/07 for me to accomplish, sheesh). Now he is back in this business again. He was gone so long that I had given up hope and took him off my blogroll. Shame on me.
All is right with the world now that we can once again watch him work his magic.
Thursday's Trading Results
It's nice to sit back and watch my stocks go up.
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Most of today's gains came from stocks that I've bought previously - UUU.v, HANS, SVM.to, and CYTR. So, all I had to do was literally sit around and watch them go up. Not that there's anything wrong with that.
Of course, if I were a trading guru, I would not only have jumped back onto CRVL to squeeze out an extra $0.70/share, but I would also press my advantage and look for more trades to push me over the top. However, I didn't go and actively search for any options plays today, as I was pre-occupied with writing some more articles (check out Move The Markets) and fighting with Blogger's unannounced downtime. Did I mention that I want to thank Blogger for all my frustrations with getting access to my blog?
I did initiate two new swing trades today - RSC.v @2.92, TSRA @41.11, and ACN @37.99. We'll see how they do tomorrow. Not sure if I have time going forward to post charts of every single trade, I may have to start filtering out the less exciting or less interesting trades. We'll see.
Thank-you Blogger
Good ol' Blogger has been blocking access to my account with a 502 error, and this is when I wanted to access one of my draft articles that I've stored there. Thanks a lot, Blogger..... NOT!
In the meantime, checkout some of the uranium stocks in my Uranium Index. Talk about a smoking hot sector that lifts all boats. I am going to be looking forward to doing my update of the Uranium Index tomorrow evening.
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