Summary
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Volatility has dried up in the past few sessions, hopefully the FOMC decision tomorrow will bring back some volatility.
Range guesstimate: 1096 - 1116
I will look for confirmation to go long anywhere below 1099
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Notes for FOMC Wed Dec 16/09
Saturday, December 05, 2009
Weekend Review, Dec 5/09
"In trading, however, the person who can easily admit to being wrong is the one who walks away a winner. Besides trading, there is probably no other profession where you have to admit you’re wrong. In trading, you can’t hide your failures. The trader who tries to blame his losses on external events will never learn from his mistakes." - VICTOR SPERANDEO
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This is a SPY chart from Monday highlighting the sideways range for the past 3 weeks:
Here's what has happened since Monday Dec 1/09:
The chart can be interpreted two ways:
a) There is a complete lack of consensus amongst market participants as to market direction. Result would be more sideways consolidation
b) There are quite a lot of buyers at support still, and this is the process to make them give up control.
Sentiment has been neutral for the past couple of weeks:
Through most of the past 3 weeks of sideways consolidation, I have observed that when sellers take control, they could not follow through, but when buyers take control, they follow through. Friday's NFP selloff could be construed as follow thru from the Dubai selloff; however price is at much higher levels ever since the Dubai selloff, so the sellers have much more work to do if they want to take control.
That said, I think the odds are good for this coming week that the bottom of the range will be tested.
I will be looking for Resistance 1112
Thursday, December 03, 2009
Daily Notes for NFP Friday, Dec 4/09
Summary
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ES has been trading sideways since Nov 10/09, and above 1098 for past 3 days. There is a good chance we will test the bottom of the range, which is at 1086-1085.
Tomorrow is NFP Friday, which should produce more volatility.
Trapped longs and the tendency to book profits ahead of the weekend will put pressure on the bulls to defend support.
Resistance 1104, 1108, 1111, 1115
Support 1085, 1093
Gold broke a 4-day uptrend, and is showing cracks in the armour.
Resistance 1207.5, 1209, 1213.4, 1215.5
Monday, November 09, 2009
Notes for Tuesday, Nov 10, 2009
"You might be a trader if you idolize a guy who goes bankrupt several times and commits suicide " -- @pipmaestro
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Sunday, November 08, 2009
Notes for Monday, Nov 9, 2009
"Most aspiring traders underestimate the time, work, and money required to become successful." -- Mark D. Cook
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Wednesday, November 04, 2009
Notes for Thurs Nov 5/09
Anything is possible so long as you trust in your ability to perform.
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Sentiment indicators ($TICK, $NYSI, $BPSPX, $NYAD) have all been trending down, suggesting bearishness creeping into the market.
Sunday, November 01, 2009
notes for monday, Nov 2/09
Almost anybody can make up a list of rules that are 80% as good as what we taught. What they can't do is give (people) the confidence to stick to those rules even when things are going bad." -Richard Dennis
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Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Notes for Tuesday, Oct 28, 2009
Saturday, October 24, 2009
Notes for Monday, Oct 26, 2009
Summary
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It's always good to know about sentiment even when daytrading. BPCOMPQ has already indicated a top. Also, we are 32 weeks into this run-up, which is where the 1938 bear market rally topped out. After a couple weeks of low volatility, Volatility has increased this past week which could be indicative of a topping process. Selling resistance is starting to work again. However, a top won't be known unless ES closes below 1070. My guess is that Monday will be a "digestion" day.
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